Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarkandStormy]

everything
TSLA is selling a car for way more than what you think its worth based on its specs. TSLA is able to do this because demand > supply. You seem to think this is a problem, but if TSLA cuts CT prices without changing the specs, I bet you will be the first to say "demand has evaporated. CT is dead."

Gotcha.

Well, they obviously have jacked up the price for the Founders Series as the cost/unit remains high early in the ramp. From an investor perspective that's good. From a reservation holder perspective, it's probably frustrating unless you have $100k to spare.

As anticipated and told to everyone (and much like some prior product launches), the price per vehicle will come down both to meet demand and as the cost/unit comes down while ramping up.

Anyway, what are you willing to wager on this bet?

Btw, you're only talking solely about price. You skipped over specs (the tri motor is not better than what they promised in 2019) and the perception/reality that vehicle costs have no increased as much in the last 5 years as Tesla increases the CT prices, even if you ignore the FS pricing and go with what it will be eventually.

 

[jerry33]

I'm used to see more Model 3/Y than large sedans (because I live in a country with human-sized roads), I can't unsee the extremely long noise of the S in this picture. How many engines, radiators, oil reservoirs, cables, and other big boxes of stuff can fit in such a huge frunk? Or is it the illusion of perspective?

I like my EV front to be as short as possible for visibilty and manoeuvrability.

My friends are always amazed at the turning radius of my X. It’s smaller than their PT Cruiser. (The S was the same)

 

[Musskiah]

@DarkandStormy I suppose you own a Tesla, yes?

 

[Musskiah]

Definitely NOT just you.

Then again-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1052356093534302208

That's from Oct 2018. Considerably more than 3-6 months have passed and the "foolish oversight" still ain't fixed.

Here's some oversight: Do you feel foolish now? Posting what you have just days prior to this...

Elon Musk Announces $500M Investment In Tesla's Supercharger Network Expansion In 2024​

I wonder if you possess necessary humility to admit it?

 

[dl003]

Gotcha.

Well, they obviously have jacked up the price for the Founders Series as the cost/unit remains high early in the ramp. From an investor perspective that's good. From a reservation holder perspective, it's probably frustrating unless you have $100k to spare.

As anticipated and told to everyone (and much like some prior product launches), the price per vehicle will come down both to meet demand and as the cost/unit comes down while ramping up.

Anyway, what are you willing to wager on this bet?

Btw, you're only talking solely about price. You skipped over specs (the tri motor is not better than what they promised in 2019) and the perception/reality that vehicle costs have no increased as much in the last 5 years as Tesla increases the CT prices, even if you ignore the FS pricing and go with what it will be eventually.

100% prices will come down. It doesnt take a Nobel Economics prize to see this.

Regarding the tri motor. Ok, lets be honest. 500 miles. 2.9s 0-60. seat 6. Completely new architecture. Off road capable. Has a bed. For $70k? I think deep down
we all knew it wouldnt become a reality. At the time the MS with 300, 320 miles was selling for as much without any of the new tech or utility of the truck. Maybe Elon overestimated the cost curve. Maybe he was thinking at peak volune that was going to be the price. They are absolutely charging early adopters a premium. Maybe Elon was just selling it a bit too hard. If something sounds too good to be true, its probably is. And that $70k trimotor was more than too good. So to begin with, maybe dont use it as your baseline.

The bottomline is I dont know enough about their decision to not make it 500 miles. Ultimately, Tesla doesnt owe us anything, except the refundable $100 deposit. Does that $100 give us the right to hold their feet to the fire? All I know is, the Cyberbeast is a value proposition. People are free to accept it or not. Its a free economy.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It's up to 1200/day - 75k per year. In one of my prior posts.

Reportedly also a peak production day this week on Cybertruck of 250 - burst.

anecdotal support to this: In my neck of the woods, CTs are flying off the lot

Thanks. Encouraging. At this rate I suspect they will be past combined production of Rivian, Lightning and Silverado soon.

 

[Musskiah]

Thanks. Encouraging. At this rate I suspect they will be past combined production of Rivian, Lightning and Silverado soon.

Unfortunately, I don't think Rivian is going to make it out of the FCF valley of death. It would be great if they could scale like Tesla.

 

[MC3OZ]

@DarkandStormy I suppose you own a Tesla, yes?

I doubt it, 100% of his net worth is probably tied up in Tesla shares.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Haven't seen it mentioned yet so I'll do so. Tesla introduced a new colour for $2500 for the Model S and X, "Lunar Silver".

View attachment 1050261

Model made at the same plant. Should be announced soon too.

 

[mongo]

Regarding the tri motor. Ok, lets be honest. 500 miles. 2.9s 0-60. seat 6. Completely new architecture. Off road capable. Has a bed. For $70k? I think deep down
we all knew it wouldnt become a reality.

Trimotor was $20k more than AWD at reveal (same as now).
$20k for a dual motor rear drive unit vs single and 50% more cell capacity didn't/ doesn't seem unreasonable. Range Extender as a separate unit is estimated at $16k.

So if trimotor was unreasonable, weren't AWD and single as well since they had the same tech?

 

[dl003]

Trimotor was $20k more than AWD at reveal (same as now).
$20k for a dual motor rear drive unit vs single and 50% more cell capacity didn't/ doesn't seem unreasonable. Range Extender as a separate unit is estimated at $16k.

So if trimotor was unreasonable, weren't AWD and single as well since they had the same tech?

all 3 were unreasonably low. at the time we knew LR model y was going to be ~50k. so 50k for a model Y vs an AWD CT, both of which were getting 300 miles? no one in their right mind should choose a model Y, unless they think the CT is fugly.

The $40k single motor? At the time model 3 with 262 mile range was ~40k already. Come on.

 

[Thekiwi]

Not how I'd run a survey, but I'm not Sir John Curtice - Wikipedia

Not a survey/article that I would let fool me.

'Charlie Munger said in 1995 in his famous Psychology of Human Misjudgment speech at Harvard: “Show me the incentives, and I'll show you the outcome.” '

https://www.axios.com/2024/05/22/axios-harris-poll-company-reputation-ranking-data-source

Methodology, they have up to 6000+ surveyed for certain elements and then

"Respondents are first asked which of the 100 most visible brands from the first survey they are familiar with. From there, respondents are asked to rate two of the 100 most visible companies that they say they are "very familiar or somewhat with" on nine dimensions of reputation to calculate a Reputational Quotient, or RQ®, score for each. The RQ® score determines the ranking of each brand in The Axios Harris Poll 100. Each company score is comprised of a statistically significant sample size of 325 respondents weighted to be representative of the U.S. Adult public on key demographics....

Lastly, we asked a third and final set of respondents a separate set of online surveys about contextual questions on topics related to brands and politics. "

The respondents had to choose two of the companies they've heard of? Weird, huge focus on Tesla & political aspects in this.

Same Axios that did the survey? "Cox Enterprises Acquires Axios Media Inc. 08/08/2022"

Cox Enterprises Acquires Axios Media Inc. | Cox Enterprises

Cox will accelerate expansion into more cities, more national topics and more premium content.

www.coxenterprises.com

Oh, that Cox Enterprises...

"Cox Automotive is transforming the way the world buys, sells, owns and uses cars. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider with solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders and fleet owners.

The company has 25,000+ employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™ and vAuto®, among others."

Cox Automotive | Cox Enterprises

With our technology, market intelligence, and products and services, Cox Automotive maximizes value for dealers, manufacturers and car shoppers. Learn more.

www.coxenterprises.com

I'll repeat - "Charlie Munger said in 1995 in his famous Psychology of Human Misjudgment speech at Harvard: “Show me the incentives, and I'll show you the outcome.”"

Great takedown of Axios! I had no idea they were owned by Cox, and I will refrain from paying any attention to them, especially on anything touching on automotive companies.

 

[Thekiwi]

Agreed but in my - perhaps somewhat fundamental opinion - you won't gain anything by meeting trade restrictions with more trade restrictions. The country that applies free trade will win, one way or another.

Who Benefits from Trade Wars?

Even though economists keep on emphasising the benefits of international trade, protectionism is on the rise in many industrialised countries. The authors argue that a potential explanation for this phenomenon can be found in the short-run distributional effects of import tariffs: while...

www.intereconomics.eu

New Zealand was one of the first in the world to embrace radical free trade policies starting in the mid-1980s, eliminating nearly all subsidies and import tariffs.

Decimated the domestic manufacturing sector, never recovered.

 

[Knightshade]

Here's some oversight: Do you feel foolish now? Posting what you have just days prior to this...

Why would I? That number confirms what my post (and the one I was replying to) was about-- that Tesla is slowing deployment of new supercharger locations.

And it's not like it's the first time Elon told us that either. In fact my post (and the one I was replying to) were specifically about Elon telling us that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785406795814510785

The only foolishness here is whatever you mistakenly thought your reply was intended to accomplish, since it was simply Elon giving a number to how much smaller the spend on new locations would be this year.

Doubly so when my post was from almost a month ago and the Elon reply you're citing is from over two weeks ago

But you apparently were so desperate to...I dunno...score some kinda internet argument gotcha points you... what... dug through everything I posted for the last month desperate to find SOMETHING you could suggest was incorrect (and hilariously turns out it wasn't because I guess you didn't read the post correctly?)

How embarrassing for you.

I wonder if you possess necessary humility to admit it?

Do you? I'm guessing not.

Feel free to take this trash to PMs though- nobody wants to read it here.

 

[Thekiwi]

Not sure I saw this shared yesterday:

TSLA Chan previously has been a solid reporter of china tesla news, but to be clear he is summarizing a news report here I believe.

 

[JusRelax]

Not sure I saw this shared yesterday:

TSLA Chan previously has been a solid reporter of china tesla news, but to be clear he is summarizing a news report here I believe.

View attachment 1050402

Where did you get this screenshot from? Your source for this is suspect for the following reasons:

1. If you search on tslchan's X feed right now, you are unable to find this tweet. He must have deleted it since he posted it.
2. I remember seeing Tslachan post either this exact post or something very similar to it several days ago (probably about a week ago), yet the screenshot you posted states it was 23hrs ago. As mentioned above, I searched tslachan's X feed for this post from a week ago or whatever, and could not find it.

 

[spacerfc]

This is why Texas is a good choice for Tesla:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793953930923098424

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794248976004505743

How red Texas became a model for green energy

The state’s solar surge proves that the energy transition defies politics

www.ft.com

 

[nativewolf]

TX has no regs and in rural but arable portions of TX land is much much less expensive than in CA. Very little is owned by the government, mostly in private hands and many large landholdings- old ranchs that contain thousands of acres. Same reason wind is huge in TX.

The flip side is the lack of regulation means pricing is increasing for consumers and TX has fatalaties due to energy grid failures that neighboring states such as OK do not have despite OK have less expensive electricity.

I am sure that Tesla may supply megapacks to some of these solar and wind facilities but I think to date the largest battery storage site is not using Tesla solutions. So, why is it good for Tesla? I mean it is always good to see renewables but why good for Tesla vs say Kansas or Ok that have lower energy costs and where grid failures don't kill hundreds and where the political elite do not blame renewables for the failure of the grid because...the grid does not fail.

TX has lots of low costs land and nothing to keep someone from building a giant solar facility (weak environmental protections) and higher pricing than neighboring states and a grid with almost no reliability/stability concerns. That's why solar is booming. It is also a risk.

 

[nativewolf]

Staged, but fun for a long weekend!

I really don't get the attention whore thing. Is that why people want a CT? They crave attention?

 

[JusRelax]

First leak of FSD Supervised v12.4 (I only have the verification from the video, so I think this is an employee leaking the new version, but no guarantees on this. Note that this youtuber has very few subscribers as well, so please take this with a grain of salt).

Video proof provided by youtuber that this is actually v12.4:

Video of driving with v12.4: