Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FastEddieB]

Well, they obviously have jacked up the price for the Founders Series as the cost/unit remains high early in the ramp. From an investor perspective that's good. From a reservation holder perspective, it's probably frustrating unless you have $100k to spare.

For reservation holders, I think the problem might extend beyond simple frustration.

I know at least one reservation holder that is foregoing the CyberTruck based not only on price but on range and features. And that one reservation holder - who I know intimately - is now considering a Rivian or Lightning or even a Silverado as a more rational choice. And he’s in no particular hurry, since an ICE pickup is competently handling his needs for now.

And the reality is such a prospective buyer may simply leave the Tesla fold and find greener pastures elsewhere. And winning back a disillusioned former owner is never an easy task.

 

[willow_hiller]

First leak of FSD Supervised v12.4 (I only have the verification from the video, so I think this is an employee leaking the new version, but no guarantees on this. Note that this youtuber has very few subscribers as well, so please take this with a grain of salt).

Video proof provided by youtuber that this is actually v12.4:

Video of driving with v12.4:

From the first few minutes I've watched there is some evidence that it might be real (beyond the software screen).

At 1:05 and again at 1:53, the warning message "Please pay attention to the road" comes up. If I recall correctly, on 12.3 and below the warning is typically accompanied by an icon showing hands on the wheel highlighted in red, while this version shows the hands on the wheel but they're not red, indicating attention can be affirmed without hands on the wheel.

Red example:

This video:

Furthermore, these warnings are dismissed without the driver touching the wheel. So pretty good chance of it being real; unless I'm misremembering the icon color and he's using a S3XY button to dismiss the nags.

 

[aubreymcfato]

For reservation holders, I think the problem might extend beyond simple frustration.

I know at least one reservation holder that is foregoing the CyberTruck based not only on price but on range and features. And that one reservation holder - who I know intimately - is now considering a Rivian or Lightning or even a Silverado as a more rational choice. And he’s in no particular hurry, since an ICE pickup is competently handling his needs for now.

And the reality is such a prospective buyer may simply leave the Tesla fold and find greener pastures elsewhere. And winning back a disillusioned former owner is never an easy task.

First months of production of a revolutionary product like the CT is not the best moment to buy for "reasonable" buyers, who wants a good price/value ratio. I'm sure the first Rivians out of the factory were the most expensive models too.

 

[mongo]

For reservation holders, I think the problem might extend beyond simple frustration.

I know at least one reservation holder that is foregoing the CyberTruck based not only on price but on range and features. And that one reservation holder - who I know intimately - is now considering a Rivian or Lightning or even a Silverado as a more rational choice. And he’s in no particular hurry, since an ICE pickup is competently handling his needs for now.

And the reality is such a prospective buyer may simply leave the Tesla fold and find greener pastures elsewhere. And winning back a disillusioned former owner is never an easy task.

Something doesn't add up. They are willing to wait, but are looking at a Lightning or R1T because of better price, range, and features?

Lightning extended pack Lariat:
Nearly indentical range
Costs more (before IRA credit, 2025 is a ???)
Less payload, less towing, and a shorter bed
No rear steer and Lightning is longer bumper to bumper

Rivian Dual motor standard+ pack
Samish range (R1T is less)
Same towing
Less payload
Shorter bed
No rear steering, but R1T is shorter bumper to bumper
$5k less (~1k if adding all terrain package)

 

[2Pearls]

TX has no regs and in rural but arable portions of TX land is much much less expensive than in CA. Very little is owned by the government, mostly in private hands and many large landholdings- old ranchs that contain thousands of acres. Same reason wind is huge in TX.

The flip side is the lack of regulation means pricing is increasing for consumers and TX has fatalaties due to energy grid failures that neighboring states such as OK do not have despite OK have less expensive electricity.

I am sure that Tesla may supply megapacks to some of these solar and wind facilities but I think to date the largest battery storage site is not using Tesla solutions. So, why is it good for Tesla? I mean it is always good to see renewables but why good for Tesla vs say Kansas or Ok that have lower energy costs and where grid failures don't kill hundreds and where the political elite do not blame renewables for the failure of the grid because...the grid does not fail.

TX has lots of low costs land and nothing to keep someone from building a giant solar facility (weak environmental protections) and higher pricing than neighboring states and a grid with almost no reliability/stability concerns. That's why solar is booming. It is also a risk.

And Texas still does not alloy Tesla to sell in the state. According to Texas regulators, it's illegal for automobile manufacturers to sell new cars directly to Texans. And, Texas is one of 17 states where automakers cannot sell directly to consumers.

What is the big fascination of having Tesla incorporated in Texas. Elon should have chosen Nevada, even though Tesla set up shop in Texas, they still can not operate in Texas, how back*ss backwards do you have to be. And let’s not even get started on their laws that totally disregard woman’s rights and their own body’s.

Sure, I am not happy that Delaware screwed with Elon’s compensation package, that he certainly earned, and let a person with 9 shares dictate an approved plan...but there is an appeal process. If you want to incorporate In another state, pick one that might actually be friendly to your business. Texas is not that state.

 

[CitizenKane]

New Zealand was one of the first in the world to embrace radical free trade policies starting in the mid-1980s, eliminating nearly all subsidies and import tariffs.

Decimated the domestic manufacturing sector, never recovered.

Judging by your nick you most likely know a lot more about New Zealand than I do, which is almost nothing, but the economy seems to have been growing fine for the past 50 years. Are you saying New Zealand would have been better off with trade restrictions?

 

[ShareLofty]

And Texas still does not alloy Tesla to sell in the state. According to Texas regulators, it's illegal for automobile manufacturers to sell new cars directly to Texans. And, Texas is one of 17 states where automakers cannot sell directly to consumers.

What is the big fascination of having Tesla incorporated in Texas. Elon should have chosen Nevada, even though Tesla set up shop in Texas, they still can not operate in Texas, how back*ss backwards do you have to be. And let’s not even get started on their laws that totally disregard woman’s rights and their own body’s.

Sure, I am not happy that Delaware screwed with Elon’s compensation package, that he certainly earned, and let a person with 9 shares dictate an approved plan...but there is an appeal process. If you want to incorporate In another state, pick one that might actually be friendly to your business. Texas is not that state.

And not to mention that Texas just signed a new “business court system” into law that doesn’t begin until September 2024. No case law. Tesla is walking into an unknown court system just because the Board screwed up the 2018 comp negotiations and Elon had his feelings hurt.

 

[scaesare]

A car company that also happens to setup energy storage projects measured in 110s of MWhs GWhs ...ehh...probably nothing...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794120454883659833

Why couldn't it have been 1.21 GWh??

 

[Musskiah]

@Knightshade I find you insufferable

 

[Musskiah]

@Knightshade you own a Tesla vehicle, yes?

 

[SOULPEDL]

And Texas still does not alloy Tesla to sell in the state. According to Texas regulators, it's illegal for automobile manufacturers to sell new cars directly to Texans. And, Texas is one of 17 states where automakers cannot sell directly to consumers.

What is the big fascination of having Tesla incorporated in Texas. Elon should have chosen Nevada, even though Tesla set up shop in Texas, they still can not operate in Texas, how back*ss backwards do you have to be. And let’s not even get started on their laws that totally disregard woman’s rights and their own body’s.

Sure, I am not happy that Delaware screwed with Elon’s compensation package, that he certainly earned, and let a person with 9 shares dictate an approved plan...but there is an appeal process. If you want to incorporate In another state, pick one that might actually be friendly to your business. Texas is not that state.

I stopped questioning Tesla's rational long ago. 100% owning a factory in China blew my mind already. Building a factory in Texas, again poof! And yet it's pumping out vehicles without constraint. I can't say the same for some of the other factories who seem to think the ants have more clout.

What is quite clear is Tesla's pattern of globalization; they go for the throat and pick their factory locations according to economics and logistics of course, but all things equal they seem to pick regions of maximum resistance (politically).

To me, it's the equivalent of punching the biggest guy in the nose to gain instant respect and attention. McFly knew of this phenomenon back when 1.21 Giga Watts was unimaginable. Further, it could also be a way of ensuring that the people of that region get first hand knowledge (from within) which eventually erodes the old paradigms socially, and then politically. (German EV survey for example - the people have spoken.)

More evidence can be realized by looking at the attempt to allow the Saudi's in at the 420 mark. Oil people on the Tesla board??? If this had happened, there might have even been a factory in the Middle East today. (Edit: Perhaps that attempt was aimed at solving global tension surrounding oil.)

 

[Musskiah]

To get back to the facts regarding superchargers...

Here is a list of annual number of supercharger locations and stalls with annualized growth rates:

Now it is immediately obvious growth rates have been declining since 2020. However installs have been steadily increasing by a couple thousand (+/- give or take) new connectors each year. Last I saw, each supercharger takes about $40k to make, so when Elon says $500M, we can infer over 11k new superchargers in 2024. So who here is concerned about this? No one? Good. So let's not act like it's of any concern. Moving along...

 

[Musskiah]

Latest Elon drama involving RFK's running mate Elon Musk Had An Affair With Google Co-Founder's Ex-Wife, Claims Report

 

[GhostSkater]

Somebody once told me Cybertruck would be an Icon. Indeed

 

[JusRelax]

From the first few minutes I've watched there is some evidence that it might be real (beyond the software screen).

At 1:05 and again at 1:53, the warning message "Please pay attention to the road" comes up. If I recall correctly, on 12.3 and below the warning is typically accompanied by an icon showing hands on the wheel highlighted in red, while this version shows the hands on the wheel but they're not red, indicating attention can be affirmed without hands on the wheel.

Red example:
View attachment 1050407

This video:
View attachment 1050406

Furthermore, these warnings are dismissed without the driver touching the wheel. So pretty good chance of it being real; unless I'm misremembering the icon color and he's using a S3XY button to dismiss the nags.

Yeah, I believe that this is actually v12.4.

I know it's just one video, but here's my personal comments on what I see as far as progression from v12.3:

1. It's disappointing to see that v12.4 still has noticeable difficulties in committing to a lane when approaching some intersections. I think this was one of the key issues that many people have pegged as their cause for disengagement.
2. As expected due to the previous comments regarding the progression from v12.3 to v12.4 to v12.5, v12.4 still seems to be on the previous stack for highways. Of note, the one time that I saw the driver have to intervene by actually touching the steering wheel was on the freeway. This makes me wonder if the move to hands-free supervision is only active for city streets.
3. Parking into perpendicular spots seems to be noticeably quicker compared to v12.3.
4. v12.4 seems to be smoother and better at hopping into gaps in traffic when changing lanes.
5. v12.4 seems very comfortable around pedestrians. Hard for me to tell if this is improved over v12.3 or not.

 

[mongo]

I stopped questioning Tesla's rational long ago. Co-owning a factory in China blew my mind already. Building a factory in Texas, again poof! And yet it's pumping out vehicles without constraint.

Tesla does not have a joint partnership with the Shanghai plant. They were the first automaker allowed to avoid that previous requirement.

 

[EQC_]

I really don't get the attention whore thing. Is that why people want a CT? They crave attention?

To be fair, huge chunks of the population choose a car based on some desire for some sort of attention, or for what they believe that vehicle will do for their image or the way people perceive them. Simultaneously, many peole probably don't even realize it because they've justified the purchase in other ways and aren't 100% aware of the marketing and how it affects their own thinking.

Honestly...just look at how many cars have completely pointless fake black plastic vents and other such purely cosmetic details. The manufacturers put those there because they know they appeal to the image some buyers want to project. Very few people would buy a bland beige station wagon marketed as a purely functional appliance for transport....and obviously nobody is making those anyway, because they know it wouldn't sell.

Yes, there are of course people who buy the cheapest to own vehicle that meets the bare minimum of their actual needs. For many others, the appearance of the car and how they think others will respond to it is very much part of their choice. And that goes for all areas of the market -- the prius was bought by many for the eco cred....sports cars and sporty cars have an obvious message....SUV's are marketed to convey a spirit of adventure...many families have a pickup truck when a sedan would work just fine for 100% of their actual uses.

 

[durkie]

And not to mention that Texas just signed a new “business court system” into law that doesn’t begin until September 2024. No case law. Tesla is walking into an unknown court system just because the Board screwed up the 2018 comp negotiations and Elon had his feelings hurt.

Couldn't agree more. I'm on the fence about a lot of the shareholder vote stuff, but will be definitely voting against moving to Texas.

People keep talking about some politically-motivated judge in the Delaware compensation case, but that's just hard to believe when 68% of fortune 500 companies incorporate there and 79% of IPOs happen there(Annual Report Statistics - Division of Corporations - State of Delaware ). You incorporate in Delaware because it's a known entity with a ton of experience and case law handling arcane corporate situations. There's no guarantee that Tesla would have gotten a different result in Texas, nor that they won't get bitten by some other corporate edge case once they move.

 

[jerry33]

I really don't get the attention whore thing. Is that why people want a CT? They crave attention?

The hail and shopping cart resistance is one reason. Efficiency appears to be better than my X is another. And people around here just like trucks.

 

[cliff harris]

Couldn't agree more. I'm on the fence about a lot of the shareholder vote stuff, but will be definitely voting against moving to Texas.

People keep talking about some politically-motivated judge in the Delaware compensation case, but that's just hard to believe when 68% of fortune 500 companies incorporate there and 79% of IPOs happen there(Annual Report Statistics - Division of Corporations - State of Delaware ). You incorporate in Delaware because it's a known entity with a ton of experience and case law handling arcane corporate situations. There's no guarantee that Tesla would have gotten a different result in Texas, nor that they won't get bitten by some other corporate edge case once they move.

Most CEOs keep a very very low profile politically, and also most CEOs have nowhere near the wealth of Elon. The combination of his political stance and being so wealthy was like catnip to an activist judge. Most fortune 500 companies have very boring CEOs who never need to care about the activism of a judge targeting them.