Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[powertoold]

The major hurdle with FSD is similar to the AP fatalities right now. Even if FSD is 3x better than a human, that's still a couple thousand deaths a year, and there's no way the media will let it get to that point. People will be hyperfocused on FSD deaths. People will be irrationally fearful about FSD deaths in a way similar to flying, even though flying is the safest transportation method.

Tesla would have to design FSD such that it's never at fault for any fatality...

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

In 2008 Elon kicked out Martin Eberhard because Tesla was in financial chaos.

Who is going to kick out Elon now for exactly the same reason?

What proof do you have Tesla is in financial chaos? It’s all speculation. I agree it looks like chaos, but just because Elon doesn’t care about tanking the stock price doesn’t mean finances are bad. I’m guess he knows that there is not a demand problem and that at Tesla’s pace of innovation there is no concern of the competition ever catching up. He knows the stock will rebound as people soon realize Tesla’s dominance.

 

[ReflexFunds]

And yet what he managed to do is to reverse Tesla into february 2014 and UNDO all the accomplishments of the last 4 years.
Perception (image) is everything.

What happened to Model 3 being a money printing machine?
What exactly is Tesla "burning money" today on?

I ain't no care bear but the writing is on the wall, there is no money to be made with TSLA.
Elon does not need his TSLA to reach mars.

Share price has nothing to do with their accomplishments.
Tesla have made continuous progress on their mission and are now getting very close to winning. Getting the technology developed and the manufacturing process sorted was the hard part, now building new factories and applying their technology to new models is mostly just cut and paste. Profit just needs more operating leverage. It's so simple. If its not later this year, it's next year.
It always amazes me how investors so often manage to panic and lose confidence when their horse is approaching the finishing line.
Why do quarterly profits suddenly matter so much at Tesla anyway? They haven't mattered at Amazon all the way up to $1trn market cap.

 

[traxila]

But did you whoop their butts at the table?

BTW, it’s 2019. 2030 is not twenty years away. Guess they also suck at maths besides being informed.

I broke exactly even which would be a tremendous victory to equal in my TSLA holdings at the moment.

Yeah, I said the same to them regarding the timeline math and emphasized how difficult it is ramp such things, as in the OEMs are already tremendously behind for the most part. But 2030 was just so far away that it did not matter whether you called it ten or twenty years as far as they were concerned.

I neglected to mention the most prominent criticism: Tesla is almost out of cash and about to go bankrupt. Mentioning that they currently had about five bill in cash did not seem to make an impression. Trying to talk about Maxwell and the battery tech was totally hopeless. The infrastructures necessary for the conversation were simply not present.

 

[EVNow]

I think they all realized that autonomous driving is harder than they'd imagined. You can't just be 99.9% effective - need to be 99.9999999%

You have too many 9s. 7 9s is 40x better than humans (at least the way I calculated it). But that's not the point.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

People are fine if promises are always 3 to 5 years away - just not when it is a year away

 

[Webeevdrivers]

What proof do you have Tesla is in financial chaos? It’s all speculation. I agree it looks like chaos, but just because Elon doesn’t care about tanking the stock price doesn’t mean finances are bad. I’m guess he knows that there is not a demand problem and that at Tesla’s pace of innovation there is no concern of the competition ever catching up. He knows the stock will rebound as people soon realize Tesla’s dominance.

I tend to agree. Still think he needs a PR department though. Hope they get this wave thing sorted out.

 

[WarpedOne]

He knows the stock will rebound as people soon realize Tesla’s dominance.

You are overestimating people's perception abilities.
As long they are spoon-fed the truth they are ought to believe, they will believe it.
The stock will go below 150 and there will be another capital raise at those prices.
Elon has lost his charisma.

 

[EVMeister]

I ain't no care bear but the writing is on the wall, there is no money to be made with TSLA.
Elon does not need his TSLA to reach mars.

So what exactly are you? A bull that has fallen for the FUD? If you really believe what you're saying, why are you still here?

 

[dww12]

All that is well and good, but you haven't provided any evidence that publishers are deliberately instructing editors who in turn are deliberately instructing reporters to write only Tesla hit pieces simply because the publication or broadcaster is not getting any advertising money from Tesla, which is what I was addressing in my posting. I look forward to your producing such evidence, and I would gladly change my mind if the evidence were convincing. The clock is ticking.

Mercedes-Benz recalls 354,000 late-model cars for fire risk - Roadshow
Should this receive more attention? 30 starter fires in the US alone, vs Tesla what 2? They aren’t even in an accident!!!!!

Audi won’t even tell you how many have caught fire:
Audi recalls 75K vehicles due to fire risk

Maybe it was this one:
2019 Audi A7 Catches Fire while Testing - GTspirit
or this one
Ohio man says his car burst into flames
or this one:
Second report of Audi Q5 SUV catching fire in Ontario
or this one:
Audi R-8 engulfed in flames on Texas City highway

Gees, I am getting tired. Was this all just in the last year? Why isn’t CNBC on this? Seems like an epidemic, oh wait that advertiser thing. We like having the lights on. Just keep on Tesla, we’re an entertainment organization anyway not a facts and figures business.

On the AP semi wreck. Any other car the focus would be on the careless truck drive, but it’s a Tesla. And honestly it will push Tesla to be even better, the problem is HW3 most likely addresses this with 3D mapping that HW2.5 can’t do. A real “story” might focus on the quickly upcoming changes that will prevent this. But alas, if you don’t eat there you are free to *sugar*.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So they are prepping factory for Model Y a year and a half before production? Anyone think production could start by end of this year? Maybe they don’t want to say it since it might cannabalize 3 sales. A surprise launch would be very funny

That'd be a surprise, but I think the more pressing question is "where do they get a 2x supply of 2170 cells"? Lets see what Maxwell Tech brings to the manufacturing mix. Capex is the real issue. Both Panasonic and Tesla have limited it in the near term. Does that mean Maxwell DBE tech doubles cell production in time to increase supply for the Model Y rollout?

Then, there's the Semi to supply too. 100 'std rge' Semi's per week at start of production requires about 60 MWh/wk (5K 'SR' semis need 3 GWh/yr). Say another 24 GWh for Model Y for year 1, then Tesla needs ~53 GWh of battery cells to support production in 2021.

That's double current output. I think that takes over a year to ramp up. Hopefuly we'll get some insight into CapEx in the financials by then (more Tesla/less Panasonic if 'Maxcells' are on the way). But I still think the plan for Model Y rollout is 2020H2.

Cheers!

P.S. It was also suggested upthead (thanks to the OP!) that with both Models 3+Y being produced at Fremont, its a natural way to allocate manufacturing mix to more closely track demand. The small SUV might outsell the sedan by 2:1. Fremont can more easily reallocate resources (76% parts in common btwn 3 and Y), and adjust total production to match any future change in demand due to world-wide economic or trade conditions.

 

[bdy0627]

Assume for a moment that the Musk email does signal negative cash flow in Q2, what else went so wrong so fast since last month’s projection of Q2 positive cash flow?

I think there is a good chance it does. Things that may have gone wrong over a few weeks are probably similar to things that went wrong in just a few weeks in Q1: production difficulties, low S/X deliveries, logistics challenges, and unwinding the wave.

 

[Beaver]

I think that you mean that the reporters manipulated it in a very big way. Just look at the headlines (which I would argue is what most of the general public read):

View attachment 409217

Every single one of those headlines completely twists his words.

And they are being parroted all over the Internet. On a tech forum I've seen people say they are holding off on buying because they are now scared.

Tesla needs PR to correct crap like this. "No, that is not what Elon said" and correct them. Of course that probably won't get much press but it would help forum lurkers that are on the fence.

 

[WarpedOne]

So what exactly are you? A bull that has fallen for the FUD? If you really believe what you're saying, why are you still here?

That's a good question ... I'm a guy that registered here in 2006, long 13 years ago.
I watched what Elon did to Martin.
Then I saw what he did with the products.
I'm ~80% invested in TSLA (falling rapidly due to SP fall).

And unfortunately I'm watching what this same Elon is doing to Tesla's public image.
Clearly he does not care for the image, but I do not see how can a company stay successful without a good public image.

 

[InDaClub]

Mercedes-Benz recalls 354,000 late-model cars for fire risk - Roadshow
Should this receive more attention? 30 starter fires in the US alone, vs Tesla what 2? They aren’t even in an accident!!!!!

Audi won’t even tell you how many have caught fire:
Audi recalls 75K vehicles due to fire risk

Maybe it was this one:
2019 Audi A7 Catches Fire while Testing - GTspirit
or this one
Ohio man says his car burst into flames
or this one:
Second report of Audi Q5 SUV catching fire in Ontario
or this one:
Audi R-8 engulfed in flames on Texas City highway

Gees, I am getting tired. Was this all just in the last year? Why isn’t CNBC on this? Seems like an epidemic, oh wait that advertiser thing. We like having the lights on. Just keep on Tesla, we’re an entertainment organization anyway not a facts and figures business.

On the AP semi wreck. Any other car the focus would be on the wreckless truck drive, but it’s a Tesla. And honestly it will push Tesla to be even better, the problem is HW3 most likely addresses this with 3D mapping that HW2.5 can’t do. A real “story” might focus on the quickly upcoming changes that will prevent this. But alas, if you don’t eat there you are free to *sugar*.

To add to your list:
Parked BMWs bursting into flames leave owners with questions
Federal Auto Regulator To Investigate Hyundai, Kia Vehicle Fires

 

[JohnDinger]

You have too many 9s. 7 9s is 40x better than humans (at least the way I calculated it).

It's not enough for autonomous vehicles to be better than the average human. They have to be better than the best driver.

Every human thinks they're better than the average at driving.

My wife has driven over 100,000 miles and never been in an accident. You're going to need a lot of nines to convince her to get behind autonomy and the politicians that support it.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

You are overestimating people's perception abilities.
As long they are spoon-fed the truth they are ought to believe, they will believe it.
The stock will go below 150 and there will be another capital raise at those prices.
Elon has lost his charisma.

I can buy the stock going to ~$150 in the near term. Amazon debuted at ~$2/share, traded in the ~$2-$5/share range for a while, ran up to ~$90/share, dropped back down to $10-15/share for another 5+ years, and climbed from there in fits and starts.

At the same time, Tesla may not need another traditional capital raise. They have $566 million in bonds coming due in November and $113 million in bonds coming due in December of next year. The next bond payment after that is significant at $1,380 million, but it's not until March of 2021, which gives them about 7 quarters of production to accrue cash for it.

I strongly disagree about Elon "losing" charisma. He can't lose something he never had.

But seriously, I wouldn't worry too much about it. The media was fine with Tesla when it was a small, scrappy upstart trying to save the world from climate change. Tesla as a larger, more capable company trying to save the world from climate change while spending next to nothing on traditional advertising and competing with the customers of the media isn't something they're super happy about, for obvious reasons. My guess is we're seeing the angle more than the story, and IMO that's how it's always been.

 

[WarpedOne]

But seriously, I wouldn't worry too much about it. The media was fine with Tesla when it was a small, scrappy upstart trying to save the world from climate change. Tesla as a larger, more capable company trying to save the world from climate change while spending next to nothing on traditional advertising and competing with the customers of the media isn't something they're super happy about, for obvious reasons.

True.

What exactly is Tesla doing about this?
Ignoring the problem so all the lies can be rooted more deeply and firmly?
Amazon got zero of such misinformation treatment.

 

[RobStark]

So what happens with those deals now that Maxwell is part of Tesla? Will Tesla try to cancel those deals, like they did after the Grohmann aquisition?

My guess is they sell that business.

Or they licence the tech to Geely directly or to a Geely supplier.

No point in leaving ~$100M on the table.

 

[Artful Dodger]

we don't know what if anything that unsubstantiated report on Panasonic building 2170's in Japan meant.

Building 2170s in Japan is a non-starter. There are import tarfiffs on Japanese 18650s that currently power the S/X. Avoiding these tariffs (hence lowering the cost of Model 3) was one of the primary objectives of moving battery cell production to the USA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

might be more practical to drive a smaller Oldsmobile

Since Oldsmobile was shut down in 2004, the newest 'Olds' is now 15 yrs old. Can you even register a 15 yr old car in San Fran?

Cheers!