Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

This is the reason why my family ended up buying a used 2016 leaf sv instead. Well, that and it cost $11k.

I'm a cheapo, so my plan is to replace the battery when I hit 95k miles and then run that thing into the ground until the battery can no longer support my commute (I'm estimating 2030ish timeframe).

Don't worry, my other EV will (eventually) be a model Y.; current reserved. The M3 just doesn't fit within our family's dynamics.

A Tesla is overkill for me too. But damn they are fun to drive.

 

[elasalle]

.

How does GF3 being financed through local loans figure into the 2019 CapEx vs cash equation?

Seems the local loans (500M? so far) were kept separate..
But GF3 too should be covered by capacity expansion, as mentioned in Q1 letter
(Also it was mentioned that GF3 costs are a lot less that Giga, Fremont, based on lessons learnt) ... ~ Cheers

 

[tinm]

Jean-Louis Gasee’s take on Elon’s vision of a million robo-taxis in 2020:

Tesla: Insane or Clever

 

[Remus]

We used to own a Leaf. It was reliable (except for the terrible battery), but it was the worst driving car we have ever owned. On the highway, over 65 mph, it can't hold a candle to a real car like a Model 3, and it was almost scary. The Leaf also is not great in crash tests, while the Model 3 has the lowest probability of injury. You must not care about safety or driving dynamics (maybe you've never owned a nice car?).

Yeah we leased leaf before getting our model 3 too. It is not very stable above 70mph. But the 3 is like gliding on rails.

 

[mongo]

.
Seems the local loans (500M? so far) were kept separate..
But GF3 too should be covered by capacity expansion, as mentioned in Q1 letter
(Also it was mentioned that GF3 costs are a lot less that Giga, Fremont, based on lessons learnt) ... ~ Cheers

Yar, just wondering if the CapEx for GF3 is (at least partly) covered by the loans, thus lowering the cash hit.

On the positive side, from the letter:

Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2.

So, if I'm reading this right, the cash spend should be less than the CapEx.
Thanks!

 

[Maitri982]

I read it somewhere that they still need to harden the floor before equipment can be installed. The installation is more likely to start in late August and may take a few months to get everything work right. Right now I think meaningful production will start in 2020.

Yes. The idea of cars rolling off the line there in September is ridiculous

 

[Carl Raymond]

Jean-Louis Gasee’s take on Elon’s vision of a million robo-taxis in 2020:

Tesla: Insane or Clever

Did Musk ever claim a million robotaxis next year? I thought he claimed a million FSD capable cars. Musk would be unlikely to claim the former because it’s totally out of his hands, in the hands of regulators.

The article is a down then up style, and it appears the down is based on poor listening.

 

[renim]

They are actually called the Liberal Party here. Though they are not liberal at all

They are a Liberal party, but not in the American sense of the word.
In 1931, the Australia Labor party split 3 ways, the right faction left the party and eventually assimilated other to become the Liberal party.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Yes. The idea of cars rolling off the line there in September is ridiculous

Is it more or less ridiculous than the pace of progress thus far?

 

[BornToFly]

Heh heh. Maybe not. Our leaf drives fine and we have had no problems with our battery. Safety is a thing but then again I drove a motorcycle for a good part of my life soooooo.

If it makes you feel better demeaning us please continue to do so. Whatever it takes to spread a little joy. . Then again, most people eventually learn that that they can’t build themselves up by tearing others down.

Enjoy your Tesla. Great car.

I'm not demeaning you. I'm sorry if you feel that way. I'm just perplexed, and the only thing that makes sense to me is that you haven't driven expensive cars very much. The Leaf (and other Nissans I've rented when traveling) just doesn't drive well compared to high quality $50k+ ICE vehicles. If that is all you have ever known, then you are probably used to it and it doesn't seem bad? But if you are accustomed to driving nice cars, the Leaf on the highway is just dreadful, and I wouldn't drive one again if you paid me to do it. The Model 3 isn't just in another league compared to the Leaf, it is a whole other world. The Model 3 at 100mph is solid.

 

[Maitri982]

Is it more or less ridiculous than the pace of progress thus far?

More... By far. Progress has been incredible, but putting up walls and a roof is very different than building out a factory that can produce a finished product as complicated as a car.

 

[Papafox]

Investor Psychology

We're aware of the confirmation bias, where someone cherry picks the data to support the position they hold dear in their mind.

There are other important psychological issues related to the stock price that investors really need to consider.

* When the stock price has proceeded substantially in the direction that earns you money, there's a tendency to enjoy this feeling of making money so much that you are unwilling to cut your holdings a bit, expecting the trend to continue indefinitely. This is part of the reasons why shorts tend to increase their interest when the stock price is low and why they so often fail to trim their holdings when they are profitable. They're suffering from this psychological illusion right now. This is also the reason why, as TSLA approached 370 several times already, TSLA longs said to themselves, "this is going to at last be the time we break 400" and they fail to capture gains by adjusting holdings.

* When the stock price has proceeded substantially in the direction that takes money out of your pocket (on paper, at least), there's a tendency in humans to think there will be no end to the continued trend. This is where TSLA longs are right now. This is one reason why we sometimes see longtime TSLA investors leave the investment when it is on the low side, but seldom when it is on the high side. There will indeed be a bottom and a bounce, but (as I have found out on numerous occasions), it's not always where you think it will be.

Bottom line is to recognize the emotions involved and keep them in mind as you make your investment decisions. TSLA is a manic-depressive stock due to media treatment, the effect of enter-low exit-high shorts, huge levels of options trading that lead to significant delta-hedging by market makers, and psychology effects.

 

[Fred42]

Did Musk ever claim a million robotaxis next year? I thought he claimed a million FSD capable cars. Musk would be unlikely to claim the former because it’s totally out of his hands, in the hands of regulators.

The article is a down then up style, and it appears the down is based on poor listening.

He uses half the article to bash Elon apparently so people will take him seriously when he goes on to make a case that Tesla might have what it takes to be a winner.

Unfortunately Elon said what he intended: a million Robotaxi capable cars in 2020, but then repeated it without the word capable IIRC.

 

[Carl Raymond]

More... By far. Progress has been incredible, but putting up walls and a roof is very different than building out a factory that can produce a finished product as complicated as a car.

Maybe. Tesla have never designed or built a building to this specification. It’s their first time. On the other hand, they have built a model 3 line before, less than 2 years ago. There no unknowns this time. If suppliers deliver on time, the Gantt chart should hold.

 

[MP3Mike]

CCS/CHAdeMO support. There is a lot of infrastructure built out already in Canada and the M3 is limited by not having CHAdeMO and CCS.

The Leaf supports CCS? I thought it was strictly CHAdeMO. Hopefully Tesla will support CCS soon, but I would guess probably not for another 4-6 months.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I'm not demeaning you. I'm sorry if you feel that way. I'm just perplexed, and the only thing that makes sense to me is that you haven't driven expensive cars very much. The Leaf (and other Nissans I've rented when traveling) just doesn't drive well compared to high quality $50k+ ICE vehicles. If that is all you have ever known, then you are probably used to it and it doesn't seem bad? But if you are accustomed to driving nice cars, the Leaf on the highway is just dreadful, and I wouldn't drive one again if you paid me to do it. The Model 3 isn't just in another league compared to the Leaf, it is a whole other world. The Model 3 at 100mph is solid.

I believe you and I’m sure it is amazing at high speed. But I live in a country and province where speed limits are mostly 100 kmh with the odd stretch at 110 or 120 kmh. I have driven a Tesla 4 times (twice in a model 3). Great car. Drives likes it’s on rails. But the new leaf felt pretty good too and the Eplus is supposed to be even better. Loved the epedal. Wish it had autopilot. Not as nice as a model three by any stretch...but...that’s just one component of a car experience. Of course the drive is important to us, so is the ability to fast charge on road trips though, the hatchback is more convenient for what we do, we like our heated steering wheel and use it at least 6 months of the year. We like a quiet car. We like easy ingress/egress. If the only thing important to you is the drive then you definetly bought the right car. Model 3 is amazing. But to us there are other considerations.

By the way, a model S would check all the boxes as well. But they are pricey and we spend a ton of money on overseas travel. Can’t do both. It’s all about priorities.

We’ll probably be putting a deposit on a model y someday. But damn that sedan looks good. .

I think we have beat this enough.

Enjoy your car. Safe travels to you and yours.

 

[jhm]

That'd be a surprise, but I think the more pressing question is "where do they get a 2x supply of 2170 cells"? Lets see what Maxwell Tech brings to the manufacturing mix. Capex is the real issue. Both Panasonic and Tesla have limited it in the near term. Does that mean Maxwell DBE tech doubles cell production in time to increase supply for the Model Y rollout?

Then, there's the Semi to supply too. 100 'std rge' Semi's per week at start of production requires about 60 MWh/wk (5K 'SR' semis need 3 GWh/yr). Say another 24 GWh for Model Y for year 1, then Tesla needs ~53 GWh of battery cells to support production in 2021.

That's double current output. I think that takes over a year to ramp up. Hopefuly we'll get some insight into CapEx in the financials by then (more Tesla/less Panasonic if 'Maxcells' are on the way). But I still think the plan for Model Y rollout is 2020H2.

Cheers!

P.S. It was also suggested upthead (thanks to the OP!) that with both Models 3+Y being produced at Fremont, its a natural way to allocate manufacturing mix to more closely track demand. The small SUV might outsell the sedan by 2:1. Fremont can more easily reallocate resources (76% parts in common btwn 3 and Y), and adjust total production to match any future change in demand due to world-wide economic or trade conditions.

Before long the whole EV race will come down to who can raise battery production fastest.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is forecasting li-ion battery capacity to hit 1TWh by 2023.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The Leaf supports CCS? I thought it was strictly CHAdeMO. Hopefully Tesla will support CCS soon, but I would guess probably not for another 4-6 months.

Hope you are right.

Yes the Leaf only supports Chademo. I

The Leaf supports CCS? I thought it was strictly CHAdeMO. Hopefully Tesla will support CCS soon, but I would guess probably not for another 4-6 months.

The leaf supports only Chademo. In BC the goverment installations as well as the regional installations are all dual head Chademo and CCS. We are a socialist province and BC hydro is a publicly owned corporation. They are actually doing a pretty good job building out the public network.

Petro Canada also is beginning to add fast chargers to some locations and Canadian Tire has plans for adding Chademo and CCS sites.

 

[mongo]

Maybe. Tesla have never designed or built a building to this specification. It’s their first time. On the other hand, they have built a model 3 line before, less than 2 years ago. There no unknowns this time. If suppliers deliver on time, the Gantt chart should hold.

Maybe not the exact building spec, but they have made 3+ assembly lines including the sprung structure while Elon really like and bears a stong resemblance to GF3 (linear with lots of loading doors). It should be hella efficient, especially if they have two doors for each commodity so that parts go straight from the trailer to the line, no extra shuffling or buffering.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

remember, in the short term the stock market is an irrational voting machine but in the long term it's a more rational value weighing machine
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