Here's Elon's (purported) email transcribed:
From: Elon Musk
Date: Wed 5/22/2019 10:45 PM
To: Everybody
As of yesterday, we had over 50,000 net new orders for this quarter. Based on current trends, we have a good
chance of exceeding the record 90,700 deliveries of Q1 last year and making this the highest deliveries/sales
quarter in Tesla history!
In order to achieve this, we need sustained output of 1,000 Model 3's per day. Almost all parts of the Model 3
production system have exceeded 1000 units on multiple days (congratulations!!) and we've averaged
about 900/day this week, so we're only about 10% away from 7000/week.
If we rally hard, we can do it!
Thanks for your great work,
Elon
The tone and content matches Elon - if it's fake it's a good one. China has been a source of internal emails before.
So if this is legit, this is good news. It's still unclear how S/X sales are doing in Q2:
- If they are at 900/day Model 3 production right now, that's a current run-rate of 6,300/week.
- If they manage to further increase it to the target 7,000/week in the final few weeks of June, then they'll maybe have ~6,000/week overall Model 3 production rate for all of Q2, which is a production of ~78,000 Model 3's. (Maybe more.)
- The email mentions a goal of higher than 90,700 S+3+X deliveries.
- In Q1 vehicles in transit were ~10k, and if they now increase this to ~15k to unwind the 'wave' delivery method in the next several quarters, then total production would be roughly 5k more than deliveries, i.e. ~96k.
- This means that if Model 3 production is 78k and total production is 96k, then S/X production 18k - better than Q1 but worse than Q2'18.
Another detail in the email: production increase focus is entirely on the Model 3. This could be read in a way to say that Model S/X is at full (or intended) capacity, with no production push there.
Also note the focus on deliveries, i.e. the target for Q2 is record deliveries despite unwinding the wave. (In-transit vehicles are 'sold' vehicles that are not delivered yet, so unwinding the wave would have the effect of reducing deliveries somewhat.)
If this verifies in the delivery report in early July, then this should completely change the current gloom and doom narrative and would paint Q1'19 as the outlier - not Q3-Q4'18 as outliers.
Still 5-6 weeks of heavy FUD until then though - plus in Q1 they originally intended much better deliveries too, so as always there's a real chance of Tesla not meeting these goals.
Not advice.
