Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pras]

Really makes one feel dirty as there seems to be no safe port in the political S storm

I gotta take a shower after reading that WFB piece.... yeeechh!

Fire Away!

My brother always warns me to be careful of establishment Dems. And he is wiser than me on most issues.

 

[Boomer19]

Cancelled orders could be included in the running sequence. And people cancelling one order to make a new one with different specs. Atleast that is how we did it when I worked on online shopping systems.



This is already happening. All the new premium electric cars get customers from this camp. Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron, Hyundai Ioniq and newcomers like Mercedes EQC and Porsche Taycan.

The FUD campaigns against Tesla hit just as hard in Norway. The media love click bait headlines about Tesla. And negative news get the most clicks. Thr right wing party wants to tax electric cars as hard as ICE cars are taxed today. And my left-wing aunt recently lectured me on how electric cars and Tesla are destroying the environment.

sad and unfortunate

 

[Fact Checking]

Bad lending without consequence causes allocative inefficiency

Correct - but I'd argue with an assumption that are "no consequences" - there are no public consequences that we know of. There's certainly no real market based pricing and price discovery of the Chinese banking sector at large.

China is a grand social experiment of whether you can centrally plan a banking sector plus infrastructure spending, versus letting it grow via market forces in the west.

I argue there's significant inefficiencies, mis-pricing and misallocation of resources in western financial sectors - maybe even more than in Chinese banks...

"Lax lending policies as long as there's a trade surplus" are, in my book, the least of all sins a central bank can do. (And I think we agree that Chinese state banks are an extended arm of the Chinese central bank and the government.)

In fact I'd argue that lax lending standards are a virtue in many scenarios - the gold standard brought us the thousand years long economic stagnation of the Middle Ages and the Great Depression and WWII after all.

But at some point your, the central bank's policy wiggle room to do this without pure printing recedes. And without pure printing, I don't see how you maintain the highly managed exchange rate.

Their managed exchange range is a function of their trade surplus: the trade surplus defines a natural strength boundary for the Remnibi - their currency cannot be kept stronger than that without consequences.

But it can be kept artificially weaker, without bad consequences (other than reduced purchase power of their own citizens), and that's what the Chinese have been doing for decades to prioritize exports over imports and consumption.

I'd guesstimate that the RMB is about ~20% weaker than it would be if it was freely floated like most other currencies. (But maybe more.)

Your big assumption is that the trade surplus will remain at high levels, even as GDP continues to reach mature levels.

Yes, and I think that's China's main goal: to grow until they become the #1 economic, political and military superpower in the world.

The only fundamental constraint to that is how large they are compared to the world, plus acceptance of the Chinese populace of this kind of policy that trades future living standards for lower current living standards. There's no sign that Chinese citizens are unhappy about this on a major scale: as long as living standards are going up this is a sustainable model even under a dictatorship with restricted/managed markets, IMHO.

Note that if there's a change of regime in China then the economy could easily hit the wall due to the many factors you listed: what China is doing is probably not sustainable in western-style democracies or in a Russia-style oligopolies.

 

[reardencode]

It's not weird if Panasonic convert their Japanese production entirely to 2170. There was a leak within the last couple of months or so that they are planning to do that soon. This is likely necessary for S/X to reach 250kW charging, equivalent to the Model 3.

Changing cell dimensions has approximately nothing to do with charge rates. Smaller 18650 cells may be advantageous for that matter because there are more of them per kWh and more surface area per volume. The pack and its cooling system need a redesign, which might mean they also switch cells for consistency and better wire routing, but not for charge rate.

 

[Bet the House]

Your story lacks credibility. I think I'll trust my nose instead.

OT - and this will be my last comment regarding this as I do not want to clog up the thread anymore than I already have.

I agree that my story lacks credibility. That is why I'm willing to prove it (offering to DM you a pictures of my licenses or hoping on a quick call). I assume you are saying no matter what, any new member automatically lacks credibility?

Not directing this at you, as there were a handful of members that laughed or made a comment about how this isn't possible (which again I assume is cause I'm a new member, even though I shouted out sleepyhead who was an OG on this thread many years ago) but isn't this a Tesla fanboy thread? I am going long not short. At this market cap, I am comfortable making a large purchase (relative to myself), this isn't a crazy idea and I am not the first or last to do something like this.

It seems like literally everyday someone says "I am now all in" or "I just freed up the last bit of dry powder I could fine". Aren't those members doing something similar to what I am doing?

A couple final points:
- If you are saying, by broadcasting my purchase on this thread, it may make someone else do a similar strategy which they may not have been comfortable doing without a little push, than I agree with you and have said I am in a position to do this and will still be fine if I lose all of the investment (even though it will hurt)
- If you are saying new member isn't credible no matter what, than I think you are just being silly. God forbid I didn't mark my purchase in real time. Can you igame what you would say if I came back in 6 months and said i bout around $190-$200 and TSLA was back around $300?
- 1,000 shares isn't is that big of a deal is it? I have to imagine there are many other members that have significantly more than that? So why the need to post about this being a troll job? If I said 500 shares or 100 shares, am I still a troll? A super troll at 2,000 shares? Believe it or not, some new members actually own shares being their first post on TMC.
- Why am I posting on this thread? It is for me. By posting my intentions I will hold myself more accountable to executing my plan. It will be more difficult for me to trade the position as I will want to come back in 6 months and give an update to the (few?) people who may be interested.

Feel free to DM me if you want to continue this conversation offline but your "nose" is wrong on this one. Nonetheless, I wish you (and every other member) good luck!

 

[elasalle]

Too many AJ types in the house. Say they are long when they are actually short.
Always saying they will buy more once it dips by another $20 ...

 

[elasalle]

So we're still at 12 boats on the docket. Those can all get to their destinations before EOQ, but I'm not sure any more could. It'd be close at any rate. Anyone have the guts to predict no #13?

Based on 10K carry over from Q1, and the assumption that all ships in Q2 (except 1st one) were full, I think it already matches Q1 deliveries to EU/CN

In order to break the wave, there should be ships going out continuously -- but I think based on NA demand and fed tax credits going away, June will still be mostly NA.


+the 10K vehicles in transit, does not seem capable of accounting for vehicles in ship/undelivered in EU/CN as well as vehicles in inventory in US? So path to 90K in Q2 might be easier because inventory cars also included in Q2 sales. (my 2 cents)

 

[elasalle]

Any vacations in Norway today? teslastats.no still at 0 for the day ..

 

[Pras]

Any vacations in Norway today? teslastats.no still at 0 for the day ..

Ascension Day. 30 May 2019 This National holiday is in 2 days. Commemorates the ascension of Jesus into heaven forty two days after his crucifixion.

Known in Norwegian as Kristi himmelfartsdag, Ascension Day commemorates the ascension of Jesus into heaven 39 days after resurrection on Easter Sunday.

Although the actual date varies wildly each year, it always falls on a Thursday. Some companies offer their employees the Friday off for free, while others encourage their staff to take the Friday as a vacation day.

 

[bdy0627]

I noticed that Troy increased his Q2 total deliveries estimate to 76k from 74k, but he is still much lower than 90k. I know he has missed on some of his estimates, but he has been pretty close in general. I sure hope he is way off this time. The market won't be impressed with deliveries under 80k, particularly with current guidance of 90-100k. Tesla really needs to regain some credibility with respect to guidance. Anything under 90k will obviously be framed as a miss by analysts/media, but IMO if it's a small miss it can be a win. Missing guidance by over 10% would reinforce the disconnect between guidance and execution.

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter

 

[Pras]

The funny thing is that all these A'Holes are on the conference calls asking stupid questions. ...

Remember these analysts have an agenda on personal level too. Remember the bonehead conference call ? Also Tesla asking questions from retail shareholders. These things are breaking the influence analysts use to have on CEOs and hence they will never be all jolly about Musk or Tesla. Some brokerage are positive about Tesla, but they are exceptions and are not from mainstream.

So I don’t see analyst community view on Tesla changing any time soon.

 

[Cobos]

Any vacations in Norway today? teslastats.no still at 0 for the day ..

As pras said Thursday is a public holiday and most schools has the Friday off so this turns into a long-weekend. Sales should be tiny until Monday when I guess they will catch up with the missed days.

 

[Pras]

I noticed that Troy increased his Q2 total deliveries estimate to 76k from 74k, but he is still much lower than 90k. I know he has missed on some of his estimates, but he has been pretty close in general. I sure hope he is way off this time. The market won't be impressed with deliveries under 80k, particularly with current guidance of 90-100k. Tesla really needs to regain some credibility with respect to guidance. Anything under 90k will obviously be framed as a miss by analysts/media, but IMO if it's a small miss it can be a win. Missing guidance by over 10% would reinforce the disconnect between guidance and execution.

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) | Twitter

Too early for forecast on deliveries. Last Q they delivered 30k in 10 days they have 30 more days now, and most likely this will be US heavy. So only way to forecast now is based on production rate and demand.

 

[Christine69420]

Cancelled orders could be included in the running sequence. And people cancelling one order to make a new one with different specs. Atleast that is how we did it when I worked on online shopping systems.



This is already happening. All the new premium electric cars get customers from this camp. Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron, Hyundai Ioniq and newcomers like Mercedes EQC and Porsche Taycan.

The FUD campaigns against Tesla hit just as hard in Norway. The media love click bait headlines about Tesla. And negative news get the most clicks. Thr right wing party wants to tax electric cars as hard as ICE cars are taxed today. And my left-wing aunt recently lectured me on how electric cars and Tesla are destroying the environment.

sad and unfortunate

Yes I agree regarding the FUD. And I'm glad people are buying electric cars from any producer. Which they do more and more thanks to Norways tax excemptions. It's much better to drive behind ie. a Hyundai Kona than any diesel or petrol car.

 

[JRP3]

Not directing this at you, as there were a handful of members that laughed or made a comment about how this isn't possible (which again I assume is cause I'm a new member, even though I shouted out sleepyhead who was an OG on this thread many years ago) but isn't this a Tesla fanboy thread? I am going long not short. At this market cap, I am comfortable making a large purchase (relative to myself), this isn't a crazy idea and I am not the first or last to do something like this.

For what it's worth I'm fairly good at quickly identifying trolls and I find your comments to be credible.

 

[Boomer19]

Yes I agree regarding the FUD. And I'm glad people are buying electric cars from any producer. Which they do more and more thanks to Norways tax excemptions. It's much better to drive behind ie. a Hyundai Kona than any diesel or petrol car.

to add insult to injury during this plummet over the last few months -
i haven’t had the good luck that others here have had in trying to sway people to buy ev over ice. so far for a few reasons;

1) friend from work bought an A4 over model 3 bc he lives in manhattan, street parks, and doesn’t want to wait around charging. even though we’ve opened up many new stations in the reinstate area, also i pleaded with him to compare expenses and weigh the extra minutes of charging versus about $100 more in gas cost alone per mo.
let alone maint..over life of ownership.

didn’t budge - lost.

2) still fighting
my girlfriends friend - lives and covers territory for work in greenville section of NC. also no charging at home, but the SC network looks bleak in her area within 45 min drive. she wants to do it, but it depends on the expectation of charging (im checking supercharger info and chargepoint - and she’s going to get back to me with more accurate map of her work territory. also will inquire with her apt complex

3) still fighting
i’m working on my best friends wife to allow him to purchase. i put together the relevant spreadsheet of cost comparison.
shes all about monthly payment rather than life of ownership. i’m still working on that one too.

moral of story;
the early adopters, i know dozens of people who have already purchased and who have followed tesla close enough to be considered “in the know”. certainly know more than the hack ‘journalists’ in MSM. maybe don’t know as much as many posters here. but we’re just weird, so it’s understandable. we’ve already had some people buy due to experiencing our cars. now we’re out on the fringe cases and into the next wave of customers who aren’t following closely but who’s interest is piqued.

my record so far is - unsuccessful in 1, possibly limited by charging on another, and a sticker-jaded wife on the 3rd (even though i explained that they’d basically need to buy a used car for like 10k less for their usage rate to break even over life of ownership). i’m still battling for victory on that one. and i’m betting that if they get it, shell be the one who ends up driving it most anyway

 

[Pezpunk]

The market won't be impressed with deliveries under 80k, particularly with current guidance of 90-100k.

it's amazing how fast both bulls and bears inflate expectations for deliveries. Musk sends an email basically saying "if everything goes right, we might have a chance to hit 90k deliveries!" -- which to me, sounds like it's possible but far from certain, and all of a sudden "current guidance" is 90k-100k vehicles? really?

i am disinclined to doubt the 76k figure.

 

[Leo9]

it's amazing how fast both bulls and bears inflate expectations for deliveries. Musk sends an email basically saying "if everything goes right, we might have a chance to hit 90k deliveries!" -- which to me, sounds like it's POSSIBLE but UNLIKELY, and all of a sudden "current guidance" is 90k-100k vehicles? really?

i am disinclined to doubt the 76k figure.

Tesla itself provided guidance of 90k-100k in the Q1 letter.

 

[mickificki]

to add insult to injury during this plummet over the last few months -
i haven’t had the good luck that others here have had in trying to sway people to buy ev over ice. so far for a few reasons;

1) friend from work bought an A4 over model 3 bc he lives in manhattan, street parks, and doesn’t want to wait around charging. even though we’ve opened up many new stations in the reinstate area, also i pleaded with him to compare expenses and weigh the extra minutes of charging versus about $100 more in gas cost alone per mo.
let alone maint..over life of ownership.

didn’t budge - lost.

2) still fighting
my girlfriends friend - lives and covers territory for work in greenville section of NC. also no charging at home, but the SC network looks bleak in her area within 45 min drive. she wants to do it, but it depends on the expectation of charging (im checking supercharger info and chargepoint - and she’s going to get back to me with more accurate map of her work territory. also will inquire with her apt complex

3) still fighting
i’m working on my best friends wife to allow him to purchase. i put together the relevant spreadsheet of cost comparison.
shes all about monthly payment rather than life of ownership. i’m still working on that one too.

moral of story;
the early adopters, i know dozens of people who have already purchased and who have followed tesla close enough to be considered “in the know”. certainly know more than the hack ‘journalists’ in MSM. maybe don’t know as much as many posters here. but we’re just weird, so it’s understandable. we’ve already had some people buy due to experiencing our cars. now we’re out on the fringe cases and into the next wave of customers who aren’t following closely but who’s interest is piqued.

my record so far is - unsuccessful in 1, possibly limited by charging on another, and a sticker-jaded wife on the 3rd (even though i explained that they’d basically need to buy a used car for like 10k less for their usage rate to break even over life of ownership). i’m still battling for victory on that one. and i’m betting that if they get it, shell be the one who ends up driving it most anyway

OT: regarding #3, should maybe push the safety angle. Safest car ever, and with kids/future kids inside you know you have the safest product to protect them.

 

[Pezpunk]

Tesla itself provided guidance of 90k-100k in the Q1 letter.

link?

edit: found it.

"With the recently announced product improvements on Model S and Model X, as well as continued expansion of Model 3 globally, we expect our order rate to continue to increase throughout the year as our production levels increase. We believe we will deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles in Q2".

you are correct, my mistake.