Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Innocent mistake or manipulation and FUD? Look at the circled link in the pic below. This is today’s news feed in the iOS built in stock app. Click on that link and it takes you to an article dated March 28. It never ends!

View attachment 423106

Apple is helping inform investors of the upcoming bankruptcy, not sure what the problem is. There is zero demand, maybe even less than zero. Can’t raise capital, cars catching on fire constantly. Literally got into my Model S this morning and the thing blew up again.

 

[Nocturnal]

Apple is helping inform investors of the upcoming bankruptcy, not sure what the problem is. There is zero demand, maybe even less than zero. Can’t raise capital, cars catching on fire constantly. Literally got into my Model S this morning and the thing blew up again.

But also the real problem is that they might not hit record deliveries so it's a miss. We expected 20k deliveries but let's forget we said that, now 90k is a miss because it's not a record! Also, it's not possible to be production constrained if Elon is still tweeting and telling people to buy his cars!

 

[Fred42]

Apple is helping inform investors of the upcoming bankruptcy, not sure what the problem is. There is zero demand, maybe even less than zero. Can’t raise capital, cars catching on fire constantly. Literally got into my Model S this morning and the thing blew up again.

Was it your Tesla that set off the Philadelphia refinery fire?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Stan and Phyllis must be so proud...

Stan is unimpressed.

 

[Electroman]

How does Reuters just report something a random guy/site says without actually confirming the details?

I agree. But then, this would be no different if Reuters reported or referenced WSJ or LAT or NYT or Electrek. They are all in a way some random guy/site. No different from Electrek.

 

[Boomer19]

Right. He was also showing 39.3 mil shorted on 6/10. It's possible that the discrepancy between NASDAQ and S3 short interest numbers are due to the delay due to settlement. The NASDAQ figures reflect trades *settled by* the settlement day (usually 3 business days).

and not everyone subscribes to S3s service, therefore not everyone reports their #s to S3, so it’s not doctrine. but it’s a decent guideline. nobody has an inside look at everyone’s book at any given point in time.

if they are off by a few million from what nasdaq reports 10 days ago..well, i’m fine with that. it’s still a staggering number of short interest.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What sound does an alarm clock make in Europe?

2021 CO2 targets would generate €34 billion euros in penalty payments within Europe | JATO

How to reduce the penalty?

"The conclusion of this study is the worst case scenario for manufacturers. We are assuming that nothing would change from now until 2021, and unfairly excluding the plans for electrification. Effectively, OEMs can claim up to 7.5 g/km of CO2 from 2020 to 2022 to offset their total CO2 number for vehicles that meet the eco-innovation criteria.

"Moreover, we will definitely see many models dropped where investment to reduce their averages is larger than the profits generated. This will include the axing of more combustion engines, large and heavy cars, or those slow-selling models. To sum up, the manufacturers may have the technology to launch cleaner cars and alternatives to reduce the fines – their only limitation is time."​

Spoiler

Tick Tock 2021

 

[Swampgator]

The debate is over. There is nothing left to debate, except how do we deal with the fallout. That’s the only debate that matters, and why nobody is foolish enough to argue with you about established science fact.

Mod: anyway, if they try to debate it in this thread it will get deleted. -ggr.

Yet the Mod let your post stay in.... HUMMMM

 

[eisa01]

I have a feeling Norway with their winters and the general wealth of the average citizen are going to be almost exclusively AWD/LR/P.

This could explain the slight drop in deliveries this quarter as well for Norway. Tesla is mixing the SR+ more and more in order to get higher production numbers and thus more deliveries are going to other locations that are more suited for demand of SR+

Tesla is not sending any SR+ to Norway this quarter, which is upsetting some buyers as they were quoting June deliver in May...

People are now offered better deals on the LR AWD if they can take delivery this week.

So there is demand for SR+ in Norway, but Tesla decided at the last moment to send them elsewhere in Europe

Model 3 SR+ forventet levering?

 

[urarthur]

Dutch June EV sales (as of the 25th).

EV market share is 6,7%

Tesla market share: 54%

#nocompetition and SP+ just arrived.

 

[urarthur]

Latest official short interest figures are out from NASDAQ. Short interest is *down* by over 2 million shares since the last reporting period. However SI is back up beyond all-time-highs according to latest data from Ihor at S3 partners.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

The short side is an EXTREMELY crowded trade. With volume starting to dry up I would absolutely not want to be holding a short position going into the Q2 report.

Ihor is terribly wrong again. Didn't trust his model since last big miss.

A simpeler model would give better results. For every 10% movement in stock, adjust SI by 5%.

 

[urarthur]

t

But also the real problem is that they might not hit record deliveries so it's a miss. We expected 20k deliveries but let's forget we said that, now 90k is a miss because it's not a record! Also, it's not possible to be production constrained if Elon is still tweeting and telling people to buy his cars!

Even if you're production constrained you'd like as many buyers as you can to better streamline production.

e.g. if you can build 1000 cars a day, and currently 900 is LR and 100 SR+ you'd like to sell 100 additional LR so you'd build 1000 in batches and sell quickly.

I find it really silly ppl claiming Elon says buy my cars, so there must be no demand.

Wht about ICE manufacturers marketing every day. no demand?

 

[Singuy]

Does anyone have a link to that Consumer Reports reliability table for the Model 3 posted a while ago? You know the one that showed most of the important columns the Model 3 was rated highly, except for like paint/body? Elsewhere people are hyping CR's downgrade of the Model 3 for superficial reasons.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[kengchang]

t


Even if you're production constrained you'd like as many buyers as you can to better streamline production.

e.g. if you can build 1000 cars a day, and currently 900 is LR and 100 SR+ you'd like to sell 100 additional LR so you'd build 1000 in batches and sell quickly.

I find it really silly ppl claiming Elon says buy my cars, so there must be no demand.

Wht about ICE manufacturers marketing every day. no demand?

There's still Q3 and Q4. Elon is not like LeBron......

 

[RFernatt]

Here's a positive Forbes article to end the day with....

Tesla Beating Competitors Even With Its Hands Tied

"Car and Driver said Tesla's Model 3 was the best-selling luxury car in America for 2018. This is even more impressive when you consider that only 10 states allow Tesla's direct sales model, 11 states have banned it, and many states restrict Tesla to just a few stores. In short, Tesla outsold every other luxury car with its hands tied behind its back. Consider that the next time you read that Model 3 demand has peaked. [emphasis added]
...
Auto dealers cannot say they oppose Tesla's direct sales model because it threatens their business. So they have to say, with a straight face, that restricting Tesla is necessary to protect consumers. I'm not surprised that they are willing to make this argument. What surprises me is how effective they've been with such a flimsy argument.
....
Although Tesla is the worst performing stock my bear market portfolio, I take comfort in seeing enough customers jump through the artificial hoops put in place by organizations like VADA to make the Model 3 the best selling luxury car for 2018. Imagine what Tesla sales would be if there were no artificial hoops their customers had to jump through?"

 

[Prunesquallor]

Here's a positive Forbes article to end the day with....

Tesla Beating Competitors Even With Its Hands Tied

"Car and Driver said Tesla's Model 3 was the best-selling luxury car in America for 2018. This is even more impressive when you consider that only 10 states allow Tesla's direct sales model, 11 states have banned it, and many states restrict Tesla to just a few stores. In short, Tesla outsold every other luxury car with its hands tied behind its back. Consider that the next time you read that Model 3 demand has peaked. [emphasis added]
...
Auto dealers cannot say they oppose Tesla's direct sales model because it threatens their business. So they have to say, with a straight face, that restricting Tesla is necessary to protect consumers. I'm not surprised that they are willing to make this argument. What surprises me is how effective they've been with such a flimsy argument.
....
Although Tesla is the worst performing stock my bear market portfolio, I take comfort in seeing enough customers jump through the artificial hoops put in place by organizations like VADA to make the Model 3 the best selling luxury car for 2018. Imagine what Tesla sales would be if there were no artificial hoops their customers had to jump through?"

So, I keep seeing stories like this, but isn’t the whole point moot? I thought Tesla went to all online ordering from California. The real challenge is Service Centers, and whether states allow those.

I mean, I like press that shows how callow the auto dealers are, but I thought Tesla had triangulated around the whole issue.

 

[jerry33]

So, I keep seeing stories like this, but isn’t the whole point moot?

It's not moot because many people still want to see and drive the car in person. Others want someone there to explain clearly what the choices are. Those of us, such as myself and probably most TMC followers, who do almost all shopping on the net don't have a problem or need for stores, but there are a still lot of folks that aren't technology oriented.

 

[Thekiwi]

FYI - In case anyone was wondering about stock price in the investors thread:

 

[Thekiwi]

Two large possible market moving events next week to keep in mind, especially if you have any short dated TSLA options:

1. Over the weekend Trump & Xi will meet at G-20. Although not likely, a surprise tariff reduction/elimination deal would likely cause a huge pop for markets on Monday. A delay/stop in new proposed increased tariffs going ahead would likely be good for markets also.

2. Tesla delivery numbers probably land before market close Friday (not guaranteed of course). Delivery numbers sometimes come with comments which include earnings expectations adjustments.

A reminder that Tesla guided for 90k-100k deliveries and “...significantly reduce our loss in Q2”, so while anything is possible, probably not wise to expect any sort of GAAP profit for a delivery figure anywhere between 85k-100k.

 

[Singuy]

Two large possible market moving events next week to keep in mind, especially if you have any short dated TSLA options:

1. Over the weekend Trump & Xi will meet at G-20. Although not likely, a surprise tariff reduction/elimination deal would likely cause a huge pop for markets on Monday. A delay/stop in new proposed increased tariffs going ahead would likely be good for markets also.

2. Tesla delivery numbers probably land before market close Friday (not guaranteed of course). Delivery numbers sometimes come with comments which include earnings expectations adjustments.

A reminder that Tesla guided for 90k-100k deliveries and “...significantly reduce our loss in Q2”, so while anything is possible, probably not wise to expect any sort of GAAP profit for a delivery figure anywhere between 85k-100k.

Elon during the shareholder investor day said cash flow positive from this point on, saying hitting GAAP profit is very hard given their growth trajectory. Essentially GAAP + is no longer in any future guide.