Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bobbyducati]

have a 7/2 $270 short put. o man this feels good

 

[Etna]

After hour volume pretty crazy 6.4 million trades in just two minutes between 16:26 and 16:28.

 

[NicoV]

The second stage is ignited.

 

[urarthur]

"We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3."

 

[wipster]

Yahoo!!!!!

 

[Heimdallr]

Wait until CNBC and Bloomberg tell you why it isn't.

"Only 133% Y/Y growth? Bankruptcy is near."

 

[ZachShahan]

So record production/deliveries plus higher totals for Q3, how will the bears spin this?

Tesla's dead in Q4.

Plus, sales = bad because it means those people already got their cars and no one else is going to buy them once everyone who wanted one bought one or something like that.

 

[Tim S]

The flip side is that deliveries outpaced production by *a lot* (3k S/X, 5k 3).

There were a lot of cars produced in March that they couldn't get delivered by the end of Q1.

 

[EVNow]

Update to your spreadsheet incoming?

Yes, I need to recalculate inventory, receivables, payables - and possibly rethink ASP & Margin a bit.

But, gaap profit looks unlikely (with current assumptions 206M loss). @luvb2b model has it even worse at ~$300M loss (slightly less deliveries assumed). Barring special revenue from Zev credits etc, we won't see gaap profit - but we can see a small non-gaap profit. That itself will be huge.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm dying to hear if there is anything big with the Chinese model 3 pre-orders. If that is a big number it's just one more bullet.

 

[powertoold]

Tesla makes the BEST cars in the world. WHAT DEMAND PROBLEM?!?

 

[colettimj]

Reference

 

[Pras]

Any SP prediction for SP? 250? How about 265?

I would say production was softer a bit, mostly on S and X side. Refresh coming?

 

[Joe F]

Hopefully more non essential mid-level executives leave Q3.

 

[Zaxxon]

Come on, shorts: here's a new, totally original hashtag for you to use. I'm sure this one, of all those in this long and venerable series, will prove accurate. #q2isthebestitwilleverget

Can we take one moment to congratulate Tesla for--for once--nailing guidance? 90-100k, and they hit 95k nearly on the nose.

 

[EVNow]

There were a lot of cars produced in March that they couldn't get delivered by the end of Q1.

Inventory actually reduced, by 8k !

 

[Alphacrux]

Tesla just posted Q2 production and deliveries, and both are new quarterly records:

Tesla Q2 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.
​

                    Production         Deliveries
                    ----------         ----------
  Model S/X:            14,517             17,650
  Model 3:              72,531             77,550
  Total:                87,048             95,200

95.2k deliveries is a very nice beat!

BTW., the early release means that the real numbers will be even higher (by a couple of hundred units typically) - but they were confident releasing what they had booked so far.

Nice update of guidance for Q3:

"Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog. We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3."​

They also announced the discontinuation of the vehicles in transit count:

"Customer vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter were over 7,400. Due to the order-to-VIN matching process we described in our Q1 2019 Shareholder Letter, which we extended to Model S and Model X in Q2 to improve process efficiency, this metric has become less relevant. As a result, we do not plan to disclose the customer vehicles in transit metric going forward."​

While this makes inventory tracking harder, the in-transit count was used for "no demand" FUD in the past, so I understand them discontinuing it.

Bankwuptcy is near!

 

[madodel]

The anencephalics will claim that they only built 87,048 which shows they are going bankrupt since they couldn't build 95k. Shell game guy will claim vindication since they only sold these cars by dredging them up out of the ocean. Very fishy, yes?

 

[Heimdallr]

Any SP prediction for SP? 250? How about 265?

I would say production was softer a bit, mostly on S and X side. Refresh coming?

Refresh with more range is already here, that's why production was down. Expecting production for S/X to pick up in second half of the year, making Tesla profitable again.

 

[mtndrew1]

I’m sorry I was told there was a demand problem?