Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

Why you shouldn’t be surprised Elon says NO to Model S & X Refresh - Like Tesla

"I have no doubts that our inside source drove a Model S and X with what you and I would call significant changes to its batteries, interior and drivetrain in the Mojave desert this past spring. I believe some if not all of these features will be implemented in the lineup in the near future. But how near and how bundled will these features be when they are implemented into the line up are Teslas call."

I agree with her, its semantics, but major updates are coming to the S and X.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Norway is a rich country. On an absolute scale. No need to qualify with "relatively." I know, Norwegian modesty.

Agreed, Norway has almost double the GDP per capita of NZ. NZ is great but the wealth does not support them becoming the next EV utopia.

List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita - Wikipedia

 

[Singuy]

I agree with her, its semantics, but major updates are coming to the S and X.

Yes, the biggest update that will put Tesla in the history books is coming to the S&X. It's called FSD.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I agree with her, its semantics, but major updates are coming to the S and X.

Thing is, and Elon’s point is: there are always “major” updates coming. There’s been at least 10 of them since I bought my car ~2 1/2 years ago.

 

[mrmage]

So, it begins.

450+ Elected Officials from 40 States Declare Climate Crisis an Emergency; Call for National Plan to Phase Out Fossil Fuels

Echoing AOC-Sanders, LA, and NYC Resolutions Declaring a Climate Emergency, Officials Say Keeping Fossil Fuels in the Ground Necessary to Protect Public Health and Lead on Climate Crisis

Press Release (w/ lots of quotes): https://protectingamerica.net/news/

The full letter and list of signatories are available at https://protectingamerica.net/letter/
...

A nice start, but seems hopeless at the national level because of the structure of the government. It takes so few people to block legislation in the US, through gerrymandering, the electoral college, lobbyists, etc.

Can states or counties band together to form coalitions? A clever set of regulations uniformly enforced by a coalition of states or counties could force various industries to comply. Areas with the largest populations are greener, so states or cities that opted out wouldn't provide enough of a market for companies that refused to comply.

 

[KarenRei]

I agree with her, its semantics, but major updates are coming to the S and X.

And always will be.

 

[EVMeister]

Ahem. More positive UK press coverage. Twitter

 

[azaz]

Well. He has said many things in the past that are straight foolish. But people forget just how far of an accomplishment and how close his prediction became true after being a few months late.

Part of me think he's a fool, part of me thinks he'll make me look like a fool. He has a better track record of making people look like fools more than looking like a fool..give him that much.

this is very true but on AP related stuff he's been the fool more often than not. I mean just look at enhanced summon.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Exactly!

For years I was pestered by "web designers" offering their services in exchange for mine. I'd ask how they'd improve my business website, and all they could offer is that my site was getting "outdated" and they'd "update" the design. I'm sure their "refresh" would have made my webpage DIFFERENT... but in my book, that's not necessarily the same as BETTER. Tesla is doing just fine with gradual improvements to both hardware and software that I'm the happy beneficiary of; I'd hate it if my 2018 Model X was identical to the 50th Model X off the assembly line with all the issues they had back then.

OT

Do not confuse web designers with web developers. You need a developer to teach a site new tricks, and it will need to interact with a database such as MySQL using a language such as php, ruby, python. If their skills stop at HTML, css and JavaScript, all you can achieve is window dressing.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

this is very true but on AP related stuff he's been the fool more often than not. I mean just look at enhanced summon.

OTOH, look at Navigate on Autopilot.

 

[Singuy]

this is very true but on AP related stuff he's been the fool more often than not. I mean just look at enhanced summon.

Yeah he is a fool until he is not and then people are like holy F how in the world did he pull that off!

I mean 3 rockets exploded not getting into orbit and he was talking about resuable rockets..people were like you are freaken crazy.

Another example is early 2018 when Tesla couldn't even make 500 model 3s in a quarter and he was talking about 1k/day. Sure looked like a fool until holy shitballs.

 

[KSilver2000]

Yes, it's ridiculous to kick older BEVs out of the California HOV lanes while simultaneously letting PHEVs in! How many of those hybrids are actually traveling on electricity while driving in the HOV lane? Maybe the Chevy Volts are, but not the cars with only 10-25 miles of electric range. I agree that the "legacy" automakers must have lobbied for this.

Legacy automakers lobbying CA state government officials? Okay.....I’ve heard almost everything now.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

To repeat myself, there are both legal ("By buying this car, you are prohibited from operating a commercial robotaxi service") and technical ("We'll cripple FSD on all future cars in a way that prevents them from being usable as robotaxis") means to stop consumer sales from self-competition. Including the most obvious and thorough technical solution, simply outright dropping sales of FSD as an option to consumers. Not necessary, but if you want to really drive the point home...

From the Tesla Autonomy Day:

Q: "Why wouldn't I just buy all your cars? Why wouldn't I let you put me out of business?"
A: "There's a clause that we put into our cars, I think it was about three or four years ago, that they can only be used on the Tesla Network."



Any "old" predictions are long since superseded by events (yes, Elon has missed predictions in the past. That doesn't mean that we should lie about what Tesla's current predictions are).



How is this not "feature-complete by the end of the year, and then approved by regulators at some later date"? How is this not "chasing the 9s" to get regulatory approval?



How is this not "feature-complete by the end of the year, and then approved by regulators at some later date"? (My emphasis added).

Elon Musk on Lex Friedman


Actual quote:

Q: Just so we understand the definitions, when you refer to feature complete self driving, it sounds like you're describing Level 5, no geofencing..."
A: "Yes..."
Q: "... and then the regulatory process, I mean, have you talked with regulators about this - I mean, this seems like quite an aggressive timeline from what other people have put out there, I mean, what are the hurdles out there, what is the timeline to get approval, and do you need things like in California, the tracking miles, that, you know, with an operator behind, do you need those things?"
A: "Yes, we talk to regulators around the world all the time. As we introduce new features like Navigate on Autopilot, this requires regulatory approval on a per-jurisdiction basis. But I think fundamentally regulators are convinced by data, so if you have a massive amount of data that shows that autonomy is safe, they listen to it. It may take a bit of time to process the data, the process may take time, but they always come to the right conclusion, from what I've seen."

How is this not "feature-complete by the end of the year, and then approved by regulators at some later date"?



Can't find that quote in the Q&A, but assuming it's legit... How is this not "feature-complete by the end of the year, and then approved by regulators at some later date"?

Also from Tesla Autonomy Day Q&A:

Q: "But, in order for a Model 3 today to be part of the Robotaxi network, you would get into the drivers' seat.."
A: "Yes"
Q: "...Just to be on the safe side."
A: "Yes."
A: "Just like there were amphibians, but then, things became land creatures... there will be a bit of an amphibian phase."

From the presentation:

“There are three steps to full self-driving capability: * [Developing] a ‘feature complete’ FSD system; * [Ensuring] a feature complete FSD system to the degree that the person in the car does not have to pay attention to driving, and * [Finalizing] a feature complete FSD system at a reliability level where we convince regulators that is true.”

Where are you getting that this is supposed to all happen at the same time - that time being "by the end of this year"?

Or let's go back to older - say, the end of February:

“I think we’re very clear when you buy the car what is meant by full self-driving. It means it’s feature complete. Feature complete requiring supervision ... There’s really three steps: feature complete of full self-driving but requiring supervision, feature complete but not requiring supervision, feature complete not requiring supervision and regulators agree.”

Again: where are you getting that this is supposed to all happen at the same time - that time being "by the end of this year"?

How about what Musk said on the Ark podcast in mid-February?

“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year. I would say I am certain of that. That is not a question mark. However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case"

Again: where are you getting that this is supposed to all happen at the same time - that time being "by the end of this year"? He explicitly stated late 2020 for the car to be safe enough for you to fall asleep while it's driving - and even that doesn't imply regulatory approval to do so.

Now, given that you clearly got your quotes from some sort of "Elon lies about FSD" list, full of highly selective / misleading quotes: kindly inform us:

1) What list this is
2) Where you heard about it
3) Why you're sharing it

Thanks.

OMG, THANK YOU!!!
Finally a voice of reason!

Quotes out of context. Reading timelines into quotes that aren't there. Personal assumptions. Geeze people, it isn't that hard! Elon strongly believes that they will have a system in place that will be able to perform all of the functions needed to drive the car by the end of the year. No, it will not include every edge case. No, it will not be up to standards at that time and will require driver diligence. It will gather data. It will improve. Edge cases will be learned, just like a human learns to manage edge cases. Regulators will evaluate that data. Regulators will approve system at a later date when they feel enough "nines" have been achieved. Stop reading into it more than is there!

Dan

 

[kbM3]

Do you think there is much room for optimisation in an autonomous fleet compared to standard taxis?

Potential improvements could include having more granular data around passenger trips, leading to less dead time waiting for the next fare.

Another could be the willingness of passengers to cabshare with other strangers as an app based network can match passenger destinations and reduce the inconvenience to individual passengers who cabshare. This could also increase the average utilisation rate of each autonomous vehicle as the could carry multiple passengers during peak hours and a single passenger in off peak hours- reducing the maximum number of AVs needed.

A lot of people living paycheck to paycheck won't necessarily choose to participate in the ride share program, even if it's the economical choice. I have been in the Navy for 10 years, and constantly I see little baby E-2/E-3's, who make practically nothing, go off and buy the newest Dodge Challenger/Ford Mustang, even though it's definitively not in their price range, or economically sensible for them to do so. Do these Sailors live pay check to paycheck? Absolutely. Do they make the sensible choice* because it's what their budget should entail? H double L to the no.

*I fully accept that the P100DL is also not necessarily in my own budget probabilities, but that's why I'm saving now, and I'm buying used.



I'm sorry, but what? How can that in any way segregate persons reasonably? If I file myself as a "High Baller" in the app settings, is there a way to check this? Do they get access to my tax filings? Or does it segregate you based on the Tesla choice you make (S, X, or 3)? Because if the former, OMG, no. But if the latter; that doesn't truly separate the "class" of clients, just what they need/will pay for. You can have "I don't shower because why should I?" person choose to ride in the Model S exclusively, even if it's more economical to ride in the 3 for that person, because they "Like the look more" or whatever arbitrary reason.

I don’t see a reason why a dedicated robo-taxi could not have four separate partitionable compartments. One would still suffer the extra time spent delivering/picking up other passengers, but you would at least have an effectively private cabin and at a definitely reduced price.

 

[Silentk]

Ahem. More positive UK press coverage. Twitter

 

[Carl Raymond]

OMG, THANK YOU!!!
Finally a voice of reason!

Quotes out of context. Reading timelines into quotes that aren't there. Personal assumptions. Geeze people, it isn't that hard! Elon strongly believes that they will have a system in place that will be able to perform all of the functions needed to drive the car by the end of the year. No, it will not include every edge case. No, it will not be up to standards at that time and will require driver diligence. It will gather data. It will improve. Edge cases will be learned, just like a human learns to manage edge cases. Regulators will evaluate that data. Regulators will approve system at a later date when they feel enough "nines" have been achieved. Stop reading into it more than is there!

Dan

In my head they are delivering a baby, due around Christmas. Then, its education begins.

 

[azaz]

Yeah he is a fool until he is not and then people are like holy F how in the world did he pull that off!

I mean 3 rockets exploded not getting into orbit and he was talking about resuable rockets..people were like you are freaken crazy.

Another example is early 2018 when Tesla couldn't even make 500 model 3s in a quarter and he was talking about 1k/day. Sure looked like a fool until holy shitballs.

yeah so I wasn't around for early spaceX but I had no doubts he'd get model 3 production figured out. I also think it's laughable you compare the two. FSD is one of the single most hardest problems of our time. I hope he (and Tesla AP team) figures it out, honestly. I'd love nothing more than to be wrong about this. However like I've said before I dont think ANYONE is gonna have a FSD solution that'll work everywhere for at least 5 years. Waymo may cheat and offer some local stuff that's pre-mapped but I do believe Tesla is ahead of them. it's just everyone is so, so far from solving the problem imo.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I don’t see a reason why a dedicated robo-taxi could not have four separate partitionable compartments. One would still suffer the extra time spent delivering/picking up other passengers, but you would at least have an effectively private cabin and at a definitely reduced price.

Or we could just wear VR headsets that erase every person not on our white list from existence...

Slippery slope. For better or worse, society is, us.

 

[Green Pete]

yeah so I wasn't around for early spaceX but I had no doubts he'd get model 3 production figured out. I also think it's laughable you compare the two. FSD is one of the single most hardest problems of our time. I hope he (and Tesla AP team) figures it out, honestly. I'd love nothing more than to be wrong about this. However like I've said before I dont think ANYONE is gonna have a FSD solution that'll work everywhere for at least 5 years. Waymo may cheat and offer some local stuff that's pre-mapped but I do believe Tesla is ahead of them. it's just everyone is so, so far from solving the problem imo.

I would argue the single hardest AND most important software problem of our time would be an AI that could label fake news as such. FSD is known inputs and outputs to mimic very basic human intelligence. Comparatively FSD is a cake walk. Labeling fake news as fake is something the vast majority of humanity itself struggles to do.

I would also argue curing many genetic diseases are harder problems.

My only point is this isn't the hardest problem being worked on from a software perspective, let alone the hardest problem out there in a wider scope. FSD compared to just those two examples is pretty darn easy.

 

[Singuy]

yeah so I wasn't around for early spaceX but I had no doubts he'd get model 3 production figured out. I also think it's laughable you compare the two. FSD is one of the single most hardest problems of our time. I hope he (and Tesla AP team) figures it out, honestly. I'd love nothing more than to be wrong about this. However like I've said before I dont think ANYONE is gonna have a FSD solution that'll work everywhere for at least 5 years. Waymo may cheat and offer some local stuff that's pre-mapped but I do believe Tesla is ahead of them. it's just everyone is so, so far from solving the problem imo.

I actually think the stock would tank after FSD is released. I think Elon explained what feature complete is, but he shouldn't have said anything about falling asleep by 2020. This sets the expectation of feature complete to be almost perfect with minor tweaking which is most likely very far from the truth. It'll be another one of those things TeslaQs will say how Elon is a liar and their autonomy features are unsafe and dead in the water. But I do see the system getting better way faster than people think(even though it seems like it takes forever!). When I had the EAP trial in mid 2018, I thought it was unstable and dangerous. After purchasing it during the FSD sale, EAP's ability is pretty much night and day.

And the thing is people take "easy tasks that anyone can do" for granted. As FSD accomplishes these "easy human tasks" one at a time, people would just roll their eyes and say "it's about time, how hard can it be to make a left turn in a busy intersection".