N5329K
Active Member
Gwynne Shotwell was lucky that the physical realities of the “recovering the booster” problem didn’t contradict Mr Musk’s preconceived notions about what was possible, and when. The FSD team at Tesla was not so lucky.
Robin
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Robin
To repeat myself, there are both legal ("By buying this car, you are prohibited from operating a commercial robotaxi service") and technical ("We'll cripple FSD on all future cars in a way that prevents them from being usable as robotaxis") means to stop consumer sales from self-competition. Including the most obvious and thorough technical solution, simply outright dropping sales of FSD as an option to consumers. Not necessary, but if you want to really drive the point home...
From the Tesla Autonomy Day:
Q: "Why wouldn't I just buy all your cars? Why wouldn't I let you put me out of business?"
A: "There's a clause that we put into our cars, I think it was about three or four years ago, that they can only be used on the Tesla Network."
Any "old" predictions are long since superseded by events (yes, Elon has missed predictions in the past. That doesn't mean that we should lie about what Tesla's current predictions are).
How is this not "feature-complete by the end of the year, and then approved by regulators at some later date"? How is this not "chasing the 9s" to get regulatory approval?
How is this not "feature-complete by the end of the year, and then approved by regulators at some later date"? (My emphasis added).
Elon Musk on Lex Friedman
Actual quote:
Q: Just so we understand the definitions, when you refer to feature complete self driving, it sounds like you're describing Level 5, no geofencing..."
A: "Yes..."
Q: "... and then the regulatory process, I mean, have you talked with regulators about this - I mean, this seems like quite an aggressive timeline from what other people have put out there, I mean, what are the hurdles out there, what is the timeline to get approval, and do you need things like in California, the tracking miles, that, you know, with an operator behind, do you need those things?"
A: "Yes, we talk to regulators around the world all the time. As we introduce new features like Navigate on Autopilot, this requires regulatory approval on a per-jurisdiction basis. But I think fundamentally regulators are convinced by data, so if you have a massive amount of data that shows that autonomy is safe, they listen to it. It may take a bit of time to process the data, the process may take time, but they always come to the right conclusion, from what I've seen."
How is this not "feature-complete by the end of the year, and then approved by regulators at some later date"?
Can't find that quote in the Q&A, but assuming it's legit... How is this not "feature-complete by the end of the year, and then approved by regulators at some later date"?
Also from Tesla Autonomy Day Q&A:
Q: "But, in order for a Model 3 today to be part of the Robotaxi network, you would get into the drivers' seat.."
A: "Yes"
Q: "...Just to be on the safe side."
A: "Yes."
A: "Just like there were amphibians, but then, things became land creatures... there will be a bit of an amphibian phase."
From the presentation:
“There are three steps to full self-driving capability: * [Developing] a ‘feature complete’ FSD system; * [Ensuring] a feature complete FSD system to the degree that the person in the car does not have to pay attention to driving, and * [Finalizing] a feature complete FSD system at a reliability level where we convince regulators that is true.”
Where are you getting that this is supposed to all happen at the same time - that time being "by the end of this year"?
Or let's go back to older - say, the end of February:
“I think we’re very clear when you buy the car what is meant by full self-driving. It means it’s feature complete. Feature complete requiring supervision ... There’s really three steps: feature complete of full self-driving but requiring supervision, feature complete but not requiring supervision, feature complete not requiring supervision and regulators agree.”
Again: where are you getting that this is supposed to all happen at the same time - that time being "by the end of this year"?
How about what Musk said on the Ark podcast in mid-February?
“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year. I would say I am certain of that. That is not a question mark. However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case"
Again: where are you getting that this is supposed to all happen at the same time - that time being "by the end of this year"? He explicitly stated late 2020 for the car to be safe enough for you to fall asleep while it's driving - and even that doesn't imply regulatory approval to do so.
Now, given that you clearly got your quotes from some sort of "Elon lies about FSD" list, full of highly selective / misleading quotes: kindly inform us:
1) What list this is
2) Where you heard about it
3) Why you're sharing it
Thanks.
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Oh, come on... it wasn't the whole team. Tesla regularly culls low performers. Sometimes those are the managers.
This was for Starlink last summer not the booster landings.
Only a minority of staff were demoted in the Autopilot team - it is mostly business as usual, but presumably with a few new whips and a larger neural net focus.
Elon's FSD targets do not contradict any known physical realities. FSD is a very difficult problem, exactly how difficult, nobody knows. Whether Tesla has the data and time to deliver feature complete this year, who knows, it seems challenging, but don't pretend you know exactly how difficult the problem is.
Hmm, are we sure that Tesla doesn't advertise?
Damn what a spoiler. They got money now to crash Teslas? I'm still on episodes where they are dumpster diving for food.
N5329K
Active Member
I don't know exactly how difficult the problem is. I do have a pretty good notion about how much more difficult the problem is, though. Essentially, boosters are coming back in highly-controlled isolation. Their paths are well-understood, variables are known (or quickly and spectacularly discovered by RUD), and predictable to a very high degree. The range is entirely deconflicted (except for birds, I imagine) . No human life is at stake.
FSD ops have none of those advantages. Hence, they are more difficult and they will take more time. Nice goal. Long climb to get there.
Robin
So, it begins.
450+ Elected Officials from 40 States Declare Climate Crisis an Emergency; Call for National Plan to Phase Out Fossil Fuels
Echoing AOC-Sanders, LA, and NYC Resolutions Declaring a Climate Emergency, Officials Say Keeping Fossil Fuels in the Ground Necessary to Protect Public Health and Lead on Climate Crisis
Press Release (w/ lots of quotes): https://protectingamerica.net/news/
The full letter and list of signatories are available at https://protectingamerica.net/letter/
Background:
The National Climate Assessment released November 2018 projects that economic damages from climate change could lead to annual losses of $100 billion in various economic sectors. By the end of the century, current rates of warming will cost the US economy $500 billion a year in crop damage, labor losses, and damage from increasingly extreme weather — double the economic consequence of the Great Recession. The Assessment predicts economic losses will exceed the GDP of many states.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released on October 8th warns that to maintain global temperature rise below 1.5℃, far-reaching and unprecedented changes must be made in all aspects of society, including halting the production and burning of fossil fuels. Human CO2 emissions need to fall 45% by 2030.
450+ Elected Officials from 40 States Declare Climate Crisis an Emergency; Call for National Plan to Phase Out Fossil Fuels
Echoing AOC-Sanders, LA, and NYC Resolutions Declaring a Climate Emergency, Officials Say Keeping Fossil Fuels in the Ground Necessary to Protect Public Health and Lead on Climate Crisis
Press Release (w/ lots of quotes): https://protectingamerica.net/news/
The full letter and list of signatories are available at https://protectingamerica.net/letter/
Background:
The National Climate Assessment released November 2018 projects that economic damages from climate change could lead to annual losses of $100 billion in various economic sectors. By the end of the century, current rates of warming will cost the US economy $500 billion a year in crop damage, labor losses, and damage from increasingly extreme weather — double the economic consequence of the Great Recession. The Assessment predicts economic losses will exceed the GDP of many states.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released on October 8th warns that to maintain global temperature rise below 1.5℃, far-reaching and unprecedented changes must be made in all aspects of society, including halting the production and burning of fossil fuels. Human CO2 emissions need to fall 45% by 2030.
JusRelax
Active Member
To repeat myself, there are both legal ("By buying this car, you are prohibited from operating a commercial robotaxi service") and technical ("We'll cripple FSD on all future cars in a way that prevents them from being usable as robotaxis") means to stop consumer sales from self-competition. Including the most obvious and thorough technical solution, simply outright dropping sales of FSD as an option to consumers. Not necessary, but if you want to really drive the point home...
From the Tesla Autonomy Day:
Q: "Why wouldn't I just buy all your cars? Why wouldn't I let you put me out of business?"
A: "There's a clause that we put into our cars, I think it was about three or four years ago, that they can only be used on the Tesla Network."
Any "old" predictions are long since superseded by events (yes, Elon has missed predictions in the past. That doesn't mean that we should lie about what Tesla's current predictions are).
I think my point was misunderstood. I’m not saying people will compete directly with Tesla. Im saying people will buy these to use on the Tesla network. There’s no negative to Tesla from that, but demand still skyrockets to the point of causing vastly increased prices.
You’re right that Tesla could curb that, but I wouldn’t think they’d want to, and Elon is saying they’ll raise the prices on the cars a lot for exactly that reason, so it seems he doesn’t want to.
At some point there will be enough large corporations that are being harmed by climate change to offset the ones that are profiting from it. Then we will see some action, and then all the people who think climate change is a fake news conspiracy will pretend that they actually believed it but just didn't want to act rashly.
Assuming it's not too late. BTW, shouldn't this be in the CC/GW thread?
"Tesla CEO Elon Musk pours cold water on fans waiting for Model S, Model X refresh"
Brought to you by CNBC today... I have intentionally not linked.
This Tesla fan really thinks CNBC should go be fruitful and multiply with themselves.
Brought to you by CNBC today... I have intentionally not linked.
This Tesla fan really thinks CNBC should go be fruitful and multiply with themselves.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Why you shouldn’t be surprised Elon says NO to Model S & X Refresh - Like Tesla
"I have no doubts that our inside source drove a Model S and X with what you and I would call significant changes to its batteries, interior and drivetrain in the Mojave desert this past spring. I believe some if not all of these features will be implemented in the lineup in the near future. But how near and how bundled will these features be when they are implemented into the line up are Teslas call."
"I have no doubts that our inside source drove a Model S and X with what you and I would call significant changes to its batteries, interior and drivetrain in the Mojave desert this past spring. I believe some if not all of these features will be implemented in the lineup in the near future. But how near and how bundled will these features be when they are implemented into the line up are Teslas call."
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