Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Have to admit have PTSD over this tweeting crap.

I hedged out my trading position 100%. Was a lot easier to do based on the past two days. Am really tired of the SEC f**ing me and Elon f**ing himself with this stupidity. He is just too smart for this crap. He is being defiant here.

Honestly, it was after hours and Elon is on record that tweets are an allowable way to communicate with market, but I do not know how this pertains to the agreement. You would think the FUD alone over the next couple of days on this could be worth ten percent.

Hey, if I am wrong, still loaded with Tesla. Hope I am. Don't need this kind of indigestion....

So you’re saying you’re definitely wrong?

 

[Doggydogworld]

See the latest quarterly.
Construction in progress stood at over $500M, you do the math of what consists a 'primary' part of that.

CIP fell from 622m to 543m during Q2. Capex was only 250m in Q2. That implies only 170m of new capex in Q2, but that math doesn't really work because not all CIP shows up as capex. I can't conclude much from these numbers.

The phrasing about Shanghai construction in progress was new this quarterly, so that is why I assume those purchases date from during this quarter and with standard payment terms + barely any take up of the China Shanghai loan that is supposed to cover most of these purchases according to Tesla filings, it makes sense the are unpaid for now (not hit cash-flow) but sit in accounts payable.

​

It's really not clear what's in AP, nor what will show up as (cash) capex.

Likely to be paid pretty much immediately in the new quarter (as in early July), hence Tesla keeping most of the convertible proceeds in cash accounts (another discrapancy explained that TSLAQ found suspect)

​

I'm very confident they did not pay anywhere near 500m of capex in July.

The building, maybe. But the installed equipment and tooling will end up on their balance sheet. Even if they don't own the equipment (which I think they'll do) it will be considered leased assets since Tesla is on the hook of buying the full output of the factory. Again see filing

I agree it'll end up on their balance sheet. But they have a lot of PP&E on their balance sheet that never showed up as capex (GF2, Panasonic's part of GF1).

Tesla talked about 500m capex for GF3. Their loan is for 500m. That's enough for tooling and incidentals. It's not enough for the building and major equipment. If Tesla were going to own that stuff it would show up as capex and there'd be a bigger loan. But if they're a tenant then all the numbers and guidance work just fine.​

 

[traxila]

So you’re saying you’re definitely wrong?

That would be great to be definitely wrong. And it would be par for the course for the tweets to cost me money on the way down and cost me money on the way up as well. Can't say I have much love for this twitter crap in any sense, and I mean twitter as a whole.

These past two days were so nice, as I had called BS on the earnings reactions with my wallet, and it paid off handsomely. But I would have been so much happier to let it ride....

 

[Don TLR]

Really? I think Ford is a strong contender to be first to be completely wiped out by Tesla. Over 100% of Ford's valuation is the F-150. Autos have a lot of operating leverage so only a relatively small drop in revenues can quickly kill margins. A strong Pickup release from Tesla could very conceivably bankrupt Ford within 12 months of mass production.

I want a model P but Tesla can not even come close to supplying enough pickup truck demand to really hurt Ford in the near term. It;s not going to be out for 2 years and supply will be slow for a while. I know Ford has nothing right now either.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That would be great to be definitely wrong. And it would be par for the course for the tweets to cost me money on the way down and cost me money on the way up as well. Can't say I have much love for this twitter crap in any sense, and I mean twitter as a whole.

These past two days were so nice, as I had called BS on the earnings reactions with my wallet, and it paid off handsomely. But I would have been so much happier to let it ride....

I think you missed the joke... I bolded a sentence in your original comment.

 

[TheMrX]

And if we really want to be persnickety you can easily make the argument that Ford owes it's current success to massive federal spending during WWII.

I don't see that happening. Tesla couldn't possibly scale fast enough to put more than a dent in Ford truck sales. F series alone is like 900k a year, plus GM and Dodge sell nearly that. How long until Tesla could produce a million trucks a year?​

How long before Tesla can produce 2 TWh of batteries a year?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I want a model P but Tesla can not even come close to supplying enough pickup truck demand to really hurt Ford in the near term. It;s not going to be out for 2 years and supply will be slow for a while. I know Ford has nothing right now either.

That's assuming all buyers will just look only at what's available at that instant to buy. If people start holding onto their current trucks/cars/whatever to wait for the Tesla pickup, even that can make quite a bit of trouble for Ford.

 

[Krugerrand]

Dies are only a fraction of total tooling.

What else specifically are you calling tooling? And just how much do you think a new set of dies for body panels costs?

Dies are never called equipment or anything else. But stamping presses and CNC machines and cranes and most everything else is called equipment, not tooling.

BIW and GA robots and stations are called equipment, not tooling. Paint shop stuffs, also called equipment, not tooling.

So what besides die sets falls under the category of tooling? That’d be jigs, gauges, molds, fixtures, patterns and cutting apparatus like a laser cutter for blanks. That’s it. Everything else is equipment.

I’d be gobsmacked if BIW, GA and PAINT didn’t have a little bit of tooling, however in the scheme of tooling, the die sets would be a large percentage of the total cost. In the scheme of equipment, the die sets would be a small percentage of the total cost.

 

[StealthP3D]

That would be great to be definitely wrong. And it would be par for the course for the tweets to cost me money on the way down and cost me money on the way up as well. Can't say I have much love for this twitter crap in any sense, and I mean twitter as a whole.

These past two days were so nice, as I had called BS on the earnings reactions with my wallet, and it paid off handsomely. But I would have been so much happier to let it ride....

Always do what makes you the happiest (never blame your troubles on other people).

The fact is, Musk's tweets only cost you money if you sell when the price is low. They don't significantly affect the underlying value of the shares and, in time, the shares are worth whatever they are worth. Like Gali says, Musk is the primary reason for the success of Tesla and you have to take the good with the bad. Or don't play the game. Go start your own auto company and show Musk how to do it properly.

Personally, I give Musk a lot of freedom to do whatever he wants to do because he's the one out there doing it. If you don't like it, invest in his competition.

 

[Nocturnal]

That's assuming all buyers will just look only at what's available at that instant to buy. If people start holding onto their current trucks/cars/whatever to wait for the Tesla pickup, even that can make quite a bit of trouble for Ford.

I hope so, but I also have a pretty low opinion of the average pick up owner.

 

[Fred42]

The true meaning to the headline. The Tesla package is sitting on the other car makers CEO desk and it is ticking away. I wonders which one goes boom first.

Metaphorically speaking.

My daily Automobile e-mail had this article link
What’s Going on at BMW? Many Future/Current Cars Are Being Axed
but I found that the article was deleted.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I hope so, but I also have a pretty low opinion of the average pick up owner.

The "type" of pickup owner that I'm sure you're referring can't possibly have inferior power and torque lol. If the Tesla pickup is as powerful as Elon has been hinting at, they'll change their attitude and flock to the Tesla Pickup in droves. While Elon's predictions when it comes to timelines is bad(at best), his prediction and comments about the specs of Tesla's vehicles have not been off at all.

 

[StealthP3D]

I hope so, but I also have a pretty low opinion of the average pick up owner.

We have a 2010 F-150 with 40,000 miles on it. It gets used for annual firewood cutting duty, moving appliances and furniture (about twice/year) towing a horse trailer about 4 times/year and a few other assorted uses. This is enough use that it doesn't make sense to rent one every time we need it.

However, I can tell you, there is NO WAY IN HELL we will ever buy another fossil pick-up. They guzzle too much gas and need regular oil changes even if we don't drive it very far. In fact, I plan to sell ours before the price crashes and get an electric one.

 

[EVNow]

Capex is a cash flow statement item. Tesla's capex guidance reflects that line item. If Tesla were actually paying for GF3 most of the Phase 1 capex would show in 2020. But I think they're only paying for tooling and incidentals. Time will tell.

So, Tesla has spent ~$500M on capex this year. They are guiding 1.5B to 2.0B. That means more than a Billion still left, so ~$500M each quarter.

If most of the Y capex will actually materialize only next year, will they spend $1B on GF3 tooling ?

Tesla spent $2B in '18, $3B in '17 on capex. Out of this $2B in '18, tooling was only $150M and in '17 $455M. I expect tooling for GF3 to be smaller.

If Tesla is serious about investor relations and stock price, they should send Zach out to CNBC to slay all the short talking points. Explain how exactly is GF3 funded, when will its tooling Capex hit, when will Y capex hit etc. None of this is trade secret. There should be no problem being transparent about these.

 

[Fred42]

If they get ~20% margin, this would be like adding an extra 1k/wk of Model3. About $100M gross profit per quarter and $500M revenue.

Is $40,000 the anticipated cost of the tiles or the installed roof? And aren't they installed by contractors, not by Tesla?

 

[jerry33]

I hope so, but I also have a pretty low opinion of the average pick up owner.

I suspect the average pickup owner is much better than the stereotypical ones that get all the attention.

 

[ReflexFunds]

And if we really want to be persnickety you can easily make the argument that Ford owes it's current success to massive federal spending during WWII.

I don't see that happening. Tesla couldn't possibly scale fast enough to put more than a dent in Ford truck sales. F series alone is like 900k a year, plus GM and Dodge sell nearly that. How long until Tesla could produce a million trucks a year?​

Ford could be bankrupted if F-150 sales fall just 20-30% - as i say, operating leverage kills autos companies.

 

[StealthP3D]

My daily Automobile e-mail had this article link
What’s Going on at BMW? Many Future/Current Cars Are Being Axed
but I found that the article was deleted.

It's right here:

https://www.automobilemag.com/news/whats-going-on-bmw-future-strategy-products/

 

[Nocturnal]

I suspect the average pickup owner is much better than the stereotypical ones that get all the attention.

This does not say much of course. Remember what they say about the intelligence of the average person.

 

[traxila]

Always do what makes you the happiest (never blame your troubles on other people).

The fact is, Musk's tweets only cost you money if you sell when the price is low. They don't significantly affect the underlying value of the shares and, in time, the shares are worth whatever they are worth. Like Gali says, Musk is the primary reason for the success of Tesla and you have to take the good with the bad. Or don't play the game. Go start your own auto company and show Musk how to do it properly.

Personally, I give Musk a lot of freedom to do whatever he wants to do because he's the one out there doing it. If you don't like it, invest in his competition.

Slow your roll there, Stealth. Hard to find a bigger Musk fan than me. I acknowledge that he is the man, and I also acknowledge that the whole twitter deal is ridiculous. Did I attack Musk? Since he is the primary reason for the success of Tesla, FUD or an SEC press release based on this latest production tweet...well everyone here knows the possible effects. Just trying to play the game as you say. Notice I referenced my trading shares.

Also don't be so absolute as to how and when people lose money with their trades. Lots of ways to trade stocks nowadays, as I am sure you know. But if you want to attack anyone that doesn't 100% toe your party line (whatever the hell that is...telling me to start my own auto company...seriously save that for the enemy) then go ahead. I can take it.