Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

1 - Alert family to go short.
2 - Tweet bad stuff.

And the Jr just ducks ?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla stock was underperforming the macros greatly even before the Trump comments.

It sure was a nice 2 to 3 days of Tesla stock showing strength and stability......back to the norm it seems

 

[AlexS]

tariffs are great. he doesn't want to get re-elected

 

[dc_h]

So, if they sold 13,000 in the USA and seem to have shipped about 10,000 overseas (4 ships, 2 large to Europe 2 smaller to China) and probably about 2000 to Canada, that's 25,000. Add to that restocking N. America, which would take about 10,000 cars to fill showrooms and rebuild 2 weeks regional inventory. That could imply up to 35,000 cars built in the month and no lower than 30,000.
If they can maintain this for the quarter, deliveries could be close to 100,000 with some inventory rebuild going into Q4. If they build over 105,000 this quarter, 115,000 or more is attainable for Q4. I think this is a good number, but we won't really know for another ~63 days when Tesla gives us the Q deliveries.

 

[jerry33]

#TeslaKillers

Earl of Frunkpuppy on Twitter [six months of Jag inventory]

View attachment 436573

Is that six cars or twelve?

 

[willw64]

Just my hunch, but I have to believe that was the reason for the P3-, and it seems to be pulling in a lot of demand.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just a reminder, InsideEV's sales estimates have tended to always be on the low side, especially for the first month(and sometimes 2nd month) of the quarter. It has seemed to me on several occasions that they try and make up the gap in the 3rd month because they can match it to Teslas actually production/delivery numbers. Considering that, I'd say July sales were very strong.

 

[Zero CO2]

Where’s the barf emoji when you need it.

That was a very Apple fan boyish thing to say.
I’m happy with my iPad, iPhone, ATV, and MBP. But, let’s be real.....$$$ is what it is.
$39 silicone case that could be had for $5 on Amazon.
$29 for basic cables and dongles?
Lets not forget their cash cow iPhones, which can cost as much as a 27” iMac.
And I guess their new credit card is going to amaze and delight the Apple buyers.

Lets be clear both Apple and Tesla have primary goals of making $$$
This is what a very strong brand such as Apple affords them... pricing power... which is why Tesla needs to continuously work at improving the brand

• you either own an iPhone or some brand x smart phone
• you either own a Tesla or some brand x EV

 

[larmor]

Just to recap what this drop is about, Trump is threatening new China tariffs:

Donald J. Trump on Twitter

Our representatives have just returned from China where they had constructive talks having to do with a future Trade Deal. We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to...

...buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! Trade talks are continuing, and...

...during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%...

...We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!​

China will obviously retaliate with a "small" 10% tariff over all sorts of U.S. products.

(In a 100% coincidence Trump announced this just 1 day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. )

If Trump wants to crash the U.S. economy then his reelection prospects are not good, so there's not much time for him to first crash the economy and then let it recover...

If he thinks that China will respond kindly to his threats and the humiliating treatment of Chinese leadership then I think he's badly mistaken.

In terms of Tesla impact: since GF3 is supposed to start trial production runs in September and will reach higher capacity by end of December if all goes well, the long term impact is not that grave - but this would hurt all September Q3 sales and all of Q4 China sales.

Could tesla just assemble cars in the GF3 to bypass tariffs or has to be made completely in GF3?

 

[Antares Nebula]

In terms of Tesla impact: since GF3 is supposed to start trial production runs in September and will reach higher capacity by end of December if all goes well, the long term impact is not that grave - but this would hurt all September Q3 sales and all of Q4 China sales.

Could be the x-factor in Tesla meeting it's year end unit sales and profitability targets.

Does anybody remember if China imposed additional tariffs on Tesla or autos after Trump's recent 25% tariff hike in May. I don't recall them doing so. Perhaps Tesla/autos will get lucky once again. I'm sure they're retaliating but may not necessarily target Tesla and autos, as I think they already have tariffs on them. They did raise it further last year in retaliation, but then lowered it in Q1 and hadn't raised it since. My recollection is fuzzy on all this though.

 

[Nocturnal]

Could tesla just assemble cars in the GF3 to bypass tariffs or has to be made completely in GF3?

If it's anything like the US system then individual components are still taxed upon entry.

Could be the x-factor in Tesla meeting it's year end unit sales and profitability targets.

Does anybody remember if China imposed additional tariffs on Tesla or autos after Trump's recent 25% tariff hike in May. I don't recall them doing so. Perhaps Tesla/autos will get lucky once again. I'm sure they're retaliating but may not necessarily target Tesla and autos, as I think they already have tariffs on them. They did raise it further last year in retaliation, but then lowered it in Q1 and hadn't raised it since. My recollection is fuzzy on all this though.

I don't believe so. Haven't they been targeting politically sensitive things that impact Trump's base?

edit, they did increase auto tariffs back in august 2018. ​

 

[ProfTournesol]

Just a reminder, InsideEV's sales estimates have tended to always be on the low side, especially for the first month(and sometimes 2nd month) of the quarter. It has seemed to me on several occasions that they try and make up the gap in the 3rd month because they can match it to Teslas actually production/delivery numbers. Considering that, I'd say July sales were very strong.

Model S and X sales outside US are higher. So sales in US must always be seen with EU and China. The only thing I do not know is the amount of loaded vessels in transit to EU and China.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well, Trump saved my sold $240 calls at least, I guess...

 

[ProfTournesol]

If it's anything like the US system then individual components are still taxed upon entry.

I don't believe so. Haven't they been targeting politically sensitive things that impact Trump's base?

edit, they did increase auto tariffs back in august 2018. ​

Individual components are taxed lower than complete cars. Almost the same as in the EU, thats why model S and X enter Europe partly (3 parts) assembled. Its not a car yet (no assembled drive train and battery)

 

[kengchang]

Sold $235 call saved by Trump lmao but long call train wrecked.

The real question : Is it the short seller selling more or long reducing holding?

 

[mrmage]

Lets be clear both Apple and Tesla have primary goals of making $$$
This is what a very strong brand such as Apple affords them... pricing power... which is why Tesla needs to continuously work at improving the brand

• you either own an iPhone or some brand x smart phone
• you either own a Tesla or some brand x EV

Totally disagree for Tesla, because their first priority is to fight climate change. Any investor who benefits financially is fortunate that there's a correlation between EV production and SP.

In my imagination, any investor who has lost should be eligible for a 401k deduction

Could tesla just assemble cars in the GF3 to bypass tariffs or has to be made completely in GF3?

Mr. Market tends to be short sighted and stupid, so any company with the word "China" in their 10k gets hammered. I think of these as frustrating buying opportunities.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Lets be clear both Apple and Tesla have primary goals of making $$$

Which statement just goes to prove you are clueless about both companies. Elon has made it exquisitely clear that his primary goal is the mission. I don't know who you think "Tesla" might be.

 

[Curt Renz]

tariffs are great. he doesn't want to get re-elected

I suspect that Trump wants to keep the Tariff War going until much closer to the elections. Then whatever deal is reached, he will tweet is "Great".

 

[ggr]

Sold $235 call saved by Trump lmao but long call train wrecked.

The real question : Is it the short seller selling more or long reducing holding?

It's mostly market meltdown over China tariffs, although I think there are shorts dumping to try to take advantage as well.

 

[Causalien]

Just to recap what this drop is about, Trump is threatening new China tariffs:

Donald J. Trump on Twitter

Our representatives have just returned from China where they had constructive talks having to do with a future Trade Deal. We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to...

...buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! Trade talks are continuing, and...

...during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%...

...We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!​

China will obviously retaliate with a "small" 10% tariff over all sorts of U.S. products.

(In a 100% coincidence Trump announced this just 1 day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. )

If Trump wants to crash the U.S. economy then his reelection prospects are not good, so there's not much time for him to first crash the economy and then let it recover...

If he thinks that China will respond kindly to his threats and the humiliating treatment of Chinese leadership then I think he's badly mistaken.

In terms of Tesla impact: since GF3 is supposed to start trial production runs in September and will reach higher capacity by end of December if all goes well, the long term impact is not that grave - but this would hurt all September Q3 sales and all of Q4 China sales.

At this point, I do not believe China will make a deal even if Trump is re-elected. "Xi is waiting to see if he is re-elected and will crawl back on the table with a deal if he wins". Which is what Trump is probably thinking.

However, the reality is that the bad blood from all the public confrontation is making the Chinese leadership dig in the trench and not deal with Trump at all. As a Chinese saying goes "Trump is not giving China any face." This is basically a text book example of what "not giving any face" means for the Chinese.