Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[schonelucht]

Just a reminder, InsideEV's sales estimates have tended to always be on the low side, especially for the first month(and sometimes 2nd month) of the quarter.

There have also been quarters when inside-EV reduced first month estimates upon final release. I would easily take a grain of a 10% both ways on their numbers. A bit more disclosure on how they reach their estimates also would go a long way.

 

[jerry33]

A bit more disclosure on how they reach their estimates also would go a long way.

I'd like to see that too, but you can't say those things in a family publication.

 

[Zero CO2]

Which statement just goes to prove you are clueless about both companies. Elon has made it exquisitely clear that his primary goal is the mission. I don't know who you think "Tesla" might be.

WOW ... No need to be so harsh not sure why this make me "clueless", I am long AAPL for nearly 20 years ... i am also long TSLA that iswhy i visit this thread pretty regularly... the Tesla mission is admirable(climate change is real and we all must do something about it... )
but without recurring profits at some point in time (admittedly not sure when that is ) the mission will fail ...I will repeat my point Brand matters ... a lot ... and i am sorry to say that Telsa is constantly creating self inflicting wounds to the brand with confusing messaging and pretty poor service experience ...they can get away with this with early adopters , but as they continue down market this will not be tolerated in will damage reputation/brand

This thread is about investing and you invest for the long run in companies with exceptional brands that was my original point

 

[MP3Mike]

the Tesla mission is admirable(climate change is real and we all must do something about it... )
but without recurring profits at some point in time (admittedly not sure when that is ) the mission will fail

Tesla doesn't need profit to succeed, they can put all of the money back into furthering the mission. Individual products need to be sold for a profit, but the company doesn't need a profit.

 

[Zero CO2]

Tesla doesn't need profit to succeed, they can put all of the money back into furthering the mission. Individual products need to be sold for a profit, but the company doesn't need a profit.

we shall see what happens in the next recession... i have not heard statements like this since the dotcom bubble days... i don't think Tesla is like many of those failed companies from the early 2000's ... however, I invest to make money and at some point in the future I would like to see Tesla transition from a growth stock to a dividend stock .... if it happens to help the planet that is an additional bonus

 

[EVNow]

I suspect that Trump wants to keep the Tariff War going until much closer to the elections. Then whatever deal is reached will be declared as "Great".

If the economy goes into a recession, it would be too little, too late.

 

[MP3Mike]

at some point in the future I would like to see Tesla transition from a growth stock to a dividend stock

Then this probably isn't the stock for you. You can see by how Tesla is handling things, cutting prices as they save on costs even though they could continue to sell at the higher prices.

 

[Nocturnal]

Then this probably isn't the stock for you. You can see by how Tesla is handling things, cutting prices as they save on costs even though they could continue to sell at the higher prices.

That's so they can expand production though, not to forgo profits in favor of the mission.

 

[mongo]

we shall see what happens in the next recession... i have not heard statements like this since the dotcom bubble days... i don't think Tesla is like many of those failed companies from the early 2000's ... however, I invest to make money and at some point in the future I would like to see Tesla transition from a growth stock to a dividend stock .... if it happens to help the planet that is an additional bonus

"If somebody comes and makes a better electric car than Tesla, and it’s so much better than ours that we can’t sell our cars and we go bankrupt, I still think that’s a good thing for the world,"

-Elon in CBS 60 Minutes interview

See also:
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

In keeping with a fast growing technology company, all free cash flow is plowed back into R&D to drive down the costs and bring the follow on products to market as fast as possible.

 

[Christine69420]

Norwegian papers report that EV sales in Norway is halved in july compared to june.

I have been looking some more at the source data found at Bilsalget i juli 2019 – Opplysningsrådet for veitrafikken

YOY the numer of cars sold is down 4.5% since July 2018. EVs are up 51.9% in the same period.

In July 3484 EVs were registered. Last month 7428. This is obvously the decline picked by the click baiters.

In July 496 Teslas were registered. Last Month 3761. Since Tesla delivered 50.6% of the sold cars in June their wave made the whole market go down considerably when Tesla only delivered 13.2% of their June number in July.

 

[MP3Mike]

That's so they can expand production though, not to forgo profits in favor of the mission.

If that was the case they wouldn't cut prices as quickly as they lower costs. They are balancing lowest possible cost while expanding production. They aren't aiming for company level profit. (If they were they could have done things differently to get added to the S&P500 and make share holders happier.)

 

[Buckminster]

People talk like bottoming out a pickup is some theoretical hypothetical that only applies to people doing extreme rock crawling. It's not. If you live in a place that has rocks in the terrain, and you do anything offroad (e.g. driving across your land or whatnot), or take the sort of "4x4 vehicle required" backroads that people buy pickups specifically in order to be able to take, you're in a very real risk of unintentionally hitting your underside on a rock.

I've never deliberately set out to do "rock crawling", but just by virtue of driving my land and driving the highlands, I've hit rocks multiple times. This is the sort of stuff that people use pickups for. You need to be able to handle it, or your truck will be mocked as a toy for city dwellers.

Yup - Karen, be careful out there!

Second time I have made this joke. Pretty certain it gets funnier every time....

 

[EVNow]

we shall see what happens in the next recession... i have not heard statements like this since the dotcom bubble days... i don't think Tesla is like many of those failed companies from the early 2000's ... however, I invest to make money and at some point in the future I would like to see Tesla transition from a growth stock to a dividend stock .... if it happens to help the planet that is an additional bonus

That makes little sense. I'm just looking for cap gains

 

[AlMc]

I suspect that Trump wants to keep the Tariff War going until much closer to the elections. Then whatever deal is reached, he will tweet is "Great".

At this point, I do not believe China will make a deal even if Trump is re-elected. "Xi is waiting to see if he is re-elected and will crawl back on the table with a deal if he wins". Which is what Trump is probably thinking.

However, the reality is that the bad blood from all the public confrontation is making the Chinese leadership dig in the trench and not deal with Trump at all. As a Chinese saying goes "Trump is not giving China any face." This is basically a text book example of what "not giving any face" means for the Chinese.

This is the way Trump operates on all matters. Talk bold/swing the big stick, then soften the tone as his base gets energized. I agree with Curt that his strategy is to push hard then say whatever deal he makes is 'great' and to see if the economy gets stressed enough for Powell/the fed to decrease the fed fund rate more.

However, I agree with Causalien that this may have worked many times in the past in this country and in his business dealings but it is likely going to cause the Chinese to quietly dig in.

 

[Bet TSLA]

at some point in the future I would like to see Tesla transition from a growth stock to a dividend stock

Cluelessness confirmed! Learn to live with disappointment. Seriously, stick to mutual funds if this is the level of your understanding.

I am long AAPL for nearly 20 years

Hmm. My earliest purchase of AAPL was in 1983 if I remember right. So I guess I've been long AAPL for 36 years (well, not really, since I've been in and out, but continuously for the last 17 years). Worked there for eight years too, in this century. And I can assure you that very, very few people at Apple are thinking about making money, never mind it being the primary objective. It's supposed to just fall out of making awesome products.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Per teslastats.no July numbers are down as compared to April(496 vs 822)
One change is now UK is also in the EU mix

July saw 590 Model 3 deliveries in The Netherlands versus 464 in April. Model S went from 2 to 21 and Model X from 2 to 18.

 

[EVNow]

And I can assure you that very, very few people at Apple are thinking about making money, never mind it being the primary objective. It's supposed to just fall out of making awesome products.

This is actually true for a lot of companies. Most teams or even groups (engg) don't have any revenue or sales targets. The targets are mostly customer and product focused.

But that doesn't mean people who control investments or prices don't have their primary accountability as making money (while not hurting the brand or customers).

 

[Bet TSLA]

This is actually true for a lot of companies. Most teams or even groups (engg) don't have any revenue or sales targets. The targets are mostly customer and product focused.

Yup. But Apple is different. That's the main reason it has been so successful. People who are customer focused recognize that their job isn't making money, it's making customers happy. Making money happens if they do it right.

Apple products have to make money or they disappear. But it's a side-effect, a symptom.

But that doesn't mean people who control investments or prices don't have their primary accountability as making money (while not hurting the brand or customers).

I think the only people at Apple who are tasked directly with thinking about money are those who invest the cash hoard. And nobody at all is primarily tasked with thinking about the brand, not even SJ did that. It just isn't done. Great products that people will love. Everything else comes from that.

But regardless of the fact that Tesla is similar to Apple in some important ways (especially those that generate hate on Wall St.), this isn't the thread for Apple discussion so I'm done.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

its crazy to suggest TSLA will never pay dividends. Elon may claim so now, he may even really believe it, but if he continues to feel like that in 15 years time he wont be CEO. The percentage of investment capital in TSLA that is investing altruistically without a desire for return is trivial. Even people saying "I'm just investing for capital growth" miss the point: The capital only grows BECAUSE there is an expectation of future revenue from dividends. A company is only the current value of future dividend payments. You may choose to wait and collect the dividends over 20 years+ or you may choose to sell to someone with a longer time-scale than you, and collect the capital growth, but make no mistake the only reason TSLA is worth >$0 is BECAUSE of futrue dividends.

I don't see how thats even debatable. How else is the company providing anything in return for your shareholder funds? its not like investors get free supercharging.

I dont care if I dont get my first TSLA dividend for 20 years, personally, but I am 100% convinced that if somehow it was made impossible for the company to ever pay dividends, its stock value would be zero. Thats... obvious?

 

[Fred42]

its crazy to suggest TSLA will never pay dividends. Elon may claim so now, he may even really believe it, but if he continues to feel like that in 15 years time he wont be CEO. The percentage of investment capital in TSLA that is investing altruistically without a desire for return is trivial. Even people saying "I'm just investing for capital growth" miss the point: The capital only grows BECAUSE there is an expectation of future revenue from dividends. A company is only the current value of future dividend payments. You may choose to wait and collect the dividends over 20 years+ or you may choose to sell to someone with a longer time-scale than you, and collect the capital growth, but make no mistake the only reason TSLA is worth >$0 is BECAUSE of futrue dividends.

I don't see how thats even debatable. How else is the company providing anything in return for your shareholder funds? its not like investors get free supercharging.

I dont care if I dont get my first TSLA dividend for 20 years, personally, but I am 100% convinced that if somehow it was made impossible for the company to ever pay dividends, its stock value would be zero. Thats... obvious?

Many investors are going for gain in the SP that will reflect the value of the company in the future. This potentially dwarfs any dividends.