Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

No serious investor thinks Porsche or Audi will have a significant chunk of the ev market.

VW Group may get a significant chunk of the ev market.

The outdated POS e-Golf that is about to be replaced by the ID.3 is the 6th best selling EV in Europe through June.

Sure theoretically volkswagen, of dieselgate 'lying to customers so as to pollute more and thus boost profits' fame, COULD in theory grab a chunk of the clean-vehicle zero-emissions market with the ID range but...
In reality, the gap between the brand image of Tesla (passionate CEO, 100% EV, climate-change in their mission, shot a car into space) and Volkswagen (CEO probably in a prison cell? known mostly as lying, polluting dinosaurs) is colossal.

People need to really do mental somersaults to justify buying a clean EV from a company like volkswagen. How many teenagers have a poster of a VW EV on their wall? How many of them follow the CEO on twitter?

The e-tron and ipace were the only two guns in the old ICE industries army, and both are firing blanks.

 

[kengchang]

What's the probability, given that Elon will be in Shanghai the last few days of August to speak at the World AI conference, and that he'll probably stop by the new factory, that he's also there to christen a ceremonial first M3 off the GF3 assembly line as they slowly summon the new beast to life? 0%, 5%, ...100%?

0.000000000000000000000000000000%

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Started reading the new book Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors by Edward Niedermeyer.

It seems very negative to Tesla, it seems that the author early was against Tesla, got some hate for it which may or may not have been warrented, and then decided to prove his initial thesis. Most things he write about is know to readers here so not very much useful information. I will give a sample that highlights what kind of reasoning he uses:





If you like this kind of reasoning, read the book, if not then imo just give it a pass...

Edward Niedermeyer was the founder of Tesla Deathwatch. Saying he's negative on Tesla deserves an understatement of the year award.

 

[sparcs]

There's always the chance v10 is just mindblowing at release and reinforces Musk's "FC by end of year" mindset. That honestly would be more impactful than any production or financials IMO. There are multiple companies whose only asset to speak of it FSD development. If Tesla could put some money where the mouth is that would easily send the stock rocketing IMO.

I did acknowledge FSD as a wildcard. Since the progress so far has been monumentally difficult with delays, I would rather focus on the reality of production and delivery numbers moving the share price.

If it's just Enhanced Summon and some stop sign/light recognition, I don't think it's going to motivate institutionals to start buying in again. There's got to be a lot more than that to show they are ahead. Perhaps the shares could temporarily trade on the news, but I don't see it being supported on just that alone.

There's a lot of skepticism from Wall Street on the just the basics from Tesla like production, delivery, ability to ramp, etc. FSD has zero value if you can't ramp up and build enough cars. Preferably with high quality control.

 

[anthonyj]

Elon Musk on Twitter

v10 postponed 4-8 weeks :/ likely 2020 if you consider Elon time

 

[kengchang]

Elon : Price increase for Tesla FSD postponed until version 10 with smart summon is in wide release, which is about 4 to 8 weeks away, depending on how early access goes

 

[N5329K]

He's got a bunch of stuff he believes and can't see outside of that.

Definitely a problem wherever it appears.
Robin

 

[Green Pete]

Elon Musk on Twitter

v10 postponed to 2020 :/

4-8 weeks is not 2020. While I know you may be hinting at the fact the Tesla timelines keep slipping, but at least stick to facts.

 

[M3Rider]

Elon Musk on Twitter

v10 postponed to 2020 :/

Almost gave me a heart attack... I'm impatiently waiting for Netflix support.

 

[stef]

4-8 weeks is not 2020. While I know you may be hinting at the fact the Tesla timelines keep slipping, but at least stick to facts.

Also he’s referring to wide release. Should be pushed to early access relatively soon.

 

[humbaba]

Elon Musk on Twitter

v10 postponed to 2020 4 to 8 weeks:/

Fixed that for you
Informative for the link. But 4-8 weeks is hardly 2020.

 

[humbaba]

Also he’s referring to wide release. Should be pushed to early access relatively soon.

Yep. Given that he already stated that "early access" for this was "all purchasers of FSD" I expect the imperative goal for all early adopter release is "within Q3". Not sure how much difference it would make to the financials, but that certainly seems to be a line drawn in the sand.

[edit to clarify: I'm not trying to claim that it will be released Q3, just that it very much seems to be an "all efforts toward achieving" sort of goal.]

 

[brian45011]

Finally, it shouldn't affect the actual cash balance very much because the leases will be pooled into a subsidiary that receives roughly 100% financing from lenders and "tax equity" partners, same as the old SCTY solar leases.

Two differences:

30 day rentals vs 20 year leases

solar credit phase out​

Will make it more difficult to attract tax equity investors.

 

[EVMeister]

Electrek - 15 minutes ago: Tesla Gigafactory 3 obtains official govt certificate in record time ahead of production - Electrek

3 days between the request and approval. Wow. It's as if the Chinese government really wants this Gigafactory to be a huge success.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I did acknowledge FSD as a wildcard. Since the progress so far has been monumentally difficult with delays, I would rather focus on the reality of production and delivery numbers moving the share price.

If it's just Enhanced Summon and some stop sign/light recognition, I don't think it's going to motivate institutionals to start buying in again. There's got to be a lot more than that to show they are ahead. Perhaps the shares could temporarily trade on the news, but I don't see it being supported on just that alone.

There's a lot of skepticism from Wall Street on the just the basics from Tesla like production, delivery, ability to ramp, etc. FSD has zero value if you can't ramp up and build enough cars. Preferably with high quality control.

I'm personally not expecting big FSD developments until Tesla announces that they're starting the retrofit's. Once that starts happening, it tells me Tesla is ready for big improvements and needs the additional power.

 

[StealthP3D]

Started reading the new book Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors by Edward Niedermeyer.

If you like this kind of reasoning, read the book, if not then imo just give it a pass...

Wow, that's going to be embarrassing to the author as it's not going to age well! But it will probably sell well enough to make a few bucks, it has "Tesla" in the title!

 

[RobStark]

Sure theoretically volkswagen, of dieselgate 'lying to customers so as to pollute more and thus boost profits' fame, COULD in theory grab a chunk of the clean-vehicle zero-emissions market with the ID range but...
In reality, the gap between the brand image of Tesla (passionate CEO, 100% EV, climate-change in their mission, shot a car into space) and Volkswagen (CEO probably in a prison cell? known mostly as lying, polluting dinosaurs) is colossal.

People need to really do mental somersaults to justify buying a clean EV from a company like volkswagen. How many teenagers have a poster of a VW EV on their wall? How many of them follow the CEO on twitter?

The e-tron and ipace were the only two guns in the old ICE industries army, and both are firing blanks.

And yet real people continue to buy VW Group BEVs and PHEVs in very large numbers regardless of no Herbert Deiss groupies on twitter.

BEVs and PHEVs that are objectively inferior to Tesla vehicles. That is the power of BRAND.

 

[mongo]

Fixed that for you
Informative for the link. But 4-8 weeks is hardly 2020.

Heck, 4 months still isn't 2020

 

[powertoold]

Elon Musk on Twitter

v10 postponed 4-8 weeks :/ likely 2020 if you consider Elon time

That means FSD feature complete end of 2020

 

[Nathan]

Elon Musk on Twitter

v10 postponed 4-8 weeks :/ likely 2020 if you consider Elon time

Reads a little different then what you said, doesn’t it ?
Do we know when v10 was originally scheduled to be released?