Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla : Record deliveries! Sales very strong!
Analysts : It wasn't record enough. Sell.

I'm really getting sick of this.

 

[KSilver2000]

The 'silver' cars are not painted. Body and plastics are painted separately.

So, they just didn’t bother painting these two?
Or did they change the process and are now painting after general assembly?

 

[KSilver2000]

Tesla : Record deliveries! Sales very strong!
Analysts : It wasn't record enough. Sell.

I'm really getting sick of this.

This is how markets work, not just with Tesla.

 

[Bullish_Bear]

I can't help it but to laugh when I see so many people still believe Tesla has a production constraint now, instead of demand constraint

Don't take me wrong, I am holding TSLA, not a shorter by any means. Just have to agree partially to a statement from shorters: TSLA is a cult stock...

Well, I may also be a cult member, no matter I admit it or not...

 

[heltok]

Production only up 4x in 2 years! Not enough, will take forever for them to 10x with this pace...

 

[Off Shore]

Your original argument:

• Premise: There exist anecdotes of bad Smart Summon cases
• Conclusion: Smart Summon is dangerous

Your logic to back up your premise, after it was undercut by the sheer magnitude of Smart Summons conducted in the first few days:

• Premise: Smart Summon is dangerous
• Conclusion: There must be vastly more bad Smart Summon cases out there which, for some reason despite our age of social media, nobody has heard of.

You're begging the question now. Your supporting premise is your initial conclusion.

HOT DAMN Somebody actually got usage of "begging the question" right. ¡Viva #Post4075726!

 

[mrmage]

God. Earlier this year, I bought a quarter million dollar's worth of TSLA Jan21. It's down to 5 digits now. I keep waiting for it to recover, but it just doesn't seem to be capable of doing so. I have no idea what to do now. I do plan on rolling it over to Jan22s eventually, but doing so is akin to de-levering, and I don't feel great about de-levering while the SP is low.

I was watching an old youtube video about old people crying about losing a large chunk of their savings during the recession. What's funny is that the highest number given was only 1/3 of what I've lost so far this year.

If your thesis for SP appreciation is autonomy and you feel confident they'll achieve it, deleveraging isn't a big deal because the gain will still be substantial. I think autonomy will take time, so I own 5 year convertibles and stock.

If you're counting on SP increasing from profits, that could be a tight schedule depending on your strike price.

 

[mongo]

So, they just didn’t bother painting these two?
Or did they change the process and are now painting after general assembly?

They were built before the paint booth was operational.
No way they paint after GA. (Ala Maaco)

 

[EVNow]

GF3 then only needs to produce 500 a week for 10 weeks for the grand total to ne 105,500.

I doubt they will do 5k in GF3 in Q4. But then, GF3 has been breaking records, so we’ll have to see.

I expect GF3 to start making just a couple of dozen cars a day until they can get the quality right. They may hit 100 per day by end of Q4.

 

[KSilver2000]

So are we gonna hit 360k for the year? That's really all that matters. What if G3 does a quick 5k in December? That would be cool.

For the model 3
Q2 tesla made on average of 5,579 per week
Q3 tesla made an average of 6,141 per week

An increase of 562 per week.

Increasing production by 359 per week
Would be a production of 6,500 per week or 84500 for the quarter.

Adding 16,000 model S and X would bring total Fremont production to 100,500

GF3 then only needs to produce 500 a week for 10 weeks for the grand total to ne 105,500.

Since the average M3 production was 6,141 per week for Q3 and that production has been increasing that Tesla is already above 6,141 per week maybe by at least 200.

Time well tell.

And how is Tesla supposed to come up with 5,000+ cars from GF3 if the info below is to be credible?

 

[shrspeedblade]

So, based on the after hours stock dip I guess demand collapsed when the tax credit halved again for 3rd quarter?

 

[Prunesquallor]

97k. I'll take it. Nun demandz!

Wind doesn't suck. My state is at about 40% wind energy now. The people I work with on the generation side of the business are very bullish on wind. Four years ago they indicated that wind was at cost parity with fossil fuels before incentives.

​

Texas is right up there with you. There is so much wind excess power at night, my energy provider offers free power at night (to try to modify the demand curve). Guess when I charge my Tesla.

 

[brian45011]

The first time we saw a Model X prototype was in February of 2015. Model X entered production 7 months later.

It was February 2012

Is George still With us?

 

[traxila]

This is how markets work, not just with Tesla.

Not a correct statement.

‘This is how manipulation (a/k/a dirty, filthy markets) works, not just with Tesla.’

Fixed it for ya.

 

[EVNow]

Q3: Model S/X produced 16,318, delivered 17,400.

They sold MORE than they made.

They cut S/X prices quite a bit. We don't know how much they discounted preraven cars.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla : Record deliveries! Sales very strong!
Analysts : It wasn't record enough. Sell.

I'm really getting sick of this.

There was zero reason for Musk to mention 100k in the email. He should have just said something about having another record breaking quarter.

Once that mail came out people bought hoping for 100k. When that didn't happen they sold.

After all the SP went up quite a bit after that mail.

If Musk had not mentioned 100k, this would have not been a "miss" and the SP would have moved little.

 

[Steve m]

And how is Tesla supposed to come up with 5,000+ cars from GF3 if the info below is to be credible?

View attachment 462018

If China only produces 3K then Fremont would need 2k more or another 154 a week quite within the realm of the possible.

 

[ggr]

So, based on the after hours stock drip I guess demand collapsed when the tax credit halved again for 3rd quarter?

They only reported total demand, but they have more orders than deliveries... did you actually read their letter, or are you just going off third-hand articles?

 

[The Accountant]

I can't help it but to laugh when I see so many people still believe Tesla has a production constraint now, instead of demand constraint

Don't take me wrong, I am holding TSLA, not a shorter by any means. Just have to agree partially to a statement from shorters: TSLA is a cult stock...

Well, I may also be a cult member, no matter I admit it or not...

Orders (demand) in the Qtr were 110,000. Telsa produced 96,155 and delivered 97,000 vehicles. Seems like a production constraint to me.

 

[sparcs]

There was zero reason for Musk to mention 100k in the email. He should have just said something about having another record breaking quarter.

Except then our expectations would have risen far higher than 100k since that is so vague.