Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

AFAIK GF3 hasn't been officially reported as in production and the unofficial tweets about it haven't been picked up by the media yet, not even Fred (really!!).

If there were an official announcement then I could imagine we would see some real price action...

But presumably any investor with ears to the ground in China, especially large institutional investors from China...

 

[larmor]

Porsche increases Taycan production capacity after seeing high demand - Electrek

This is great news if it is true. Again, porsche going EV gives tesla credibility which MM's tried so hard to discredit tesla and EVs in general. The overall auto market is huge and price points for porsche with chronograph on dash are always higher than tesla. I would want tesla to release a chronograph option or someone duct tape an small alarm clock with hands to their dashboard....

 

[KarenRei]

"4S" isn't the Porsche base trim.

Given that the EPA range of the 4S should be under 200mi, then what's the range on the base trim going to be? Less than an Ioniq?

Given that the performance of the 4s is halfway between a M3P and an AWD, what will the performance of the base trim be like - a Leaf?

(I hate to say it, but since everyone else is playing the WLTP "Up to" range game, Tesla really should as well... While simultaneously arguing to ban it as deceptive advertising. WLTP in general disadvantages Tesla (unreasonably de-stresses aero vs. EPA), and the "Up to" game turns it into a farce.

 

[KSilver2000]

AFAIK GF3 hasn't been officially reported as in production and the unofficial tweets about it haven't been picked up by the media yet, not even Fred (really!!).

If there were an official announcement then I could imagine we would see some real price action...

Would it really move the SP significantly?
It’s already known by every follower that they were looking at an Oct 14 commencement date. So, it must be baked in already. It’s not like we were in the dark about Tesla starting production in Q4.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Given that production is expected to start in about 6 months, I feel like this provides a strong incentive to not buy right now, but wait for half a year and buy much cheaper. Unless some are worried about local quality.

How about now?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Agreed. I don't recall having written a single post on the Topic-That-Shall-Not-Be-Named after said topic was prohibited (had written several posts before it), and still got the same sweeping delete-and-ban-threat.

There was one single mild complaint, after a long discussion, and the topic died down a lot after said single mild complaint. Let's not overreact. And it's not like it's not an important, widely disputed topic.

 

[Beltsbear]

Welcome to the PRSCHQ thread, lol.

For 18 months TSLAQ chanted "Musk promised 35k but Model 3 costs 49k". The base Taycan didn't cost 150k and it doesn't cost 103k. We don't know what the base version will cost yet. And anywhere near 10k Turbo/Turbo S sales would be a spectacular result. I'd guess more like 3-5k.

I'll say it again. Taycan is defensive. It doesn't have to convince Tesla buyers to defect, it just has to stop defections from the Porsche brand. As such it's 100% focused on Porsche buyers. Porsche buyers don't worship 0-60 times, otherwise they'd be Dodge Hellcat/Demon buyers. Only time will tell if Taycan can stop defections, but anyone doing a comparison from a Tesla viewpoint (e.g. heavy focus on 0-60, self-driving, etc.) misses the point entirely.

Tesla relies on defections for 100% of their growth. If Porsche and the other carmakers could prevent all defections Tesla would die.

I am still convinced that the Taycan will actually help sell performance model S cars. Wait till it starts shipping. Buyers will test drive it. 15% of them will compare vs S and buy the S instead. Porsche may sell every one they can make as well.

 

[The Accountant]

Shorts are in a real pickle today with this price action. The conventional wisdom for the Shorts is that TSLA SP will drop on earnings release as there is always some negative narrative to play....BUT if the stock holds well on ER day...the Shorts will have to wait well into 2020 for any potential weakness in the stock (perhaps with weakening Macros). Q4 will be better than Q3 and the SP will continue to rise. Over the next 6 months, this may be the best time to cover...and I suspect some Shorts are doing so today

 

[JusRelax]

The neural net is taking over our wipers!

 

[dgodfrey]

https://electrek.co/2019/10/02/porsche-taycan-increase-production-high-demand/

While encouraging that Porsche feels the conversion of deposits to orders is almost 1:1, I will defer my excitement until deliveries back it up. I'm with FC on this and think they opened up the portal due to a lot of disappointed early depositors as a result of the initial pricing shock.

 

[M|S|W]

Founder of Electric Vehicle Startup Faraday Files for Bankruptcy
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Tslynk67]

Would it really move the SP significantly?
It’s already known by every follower that they were looking at an Oct 14 commencement date. So, it must be baked in already. It’s not like we were in the dark about Tesla starting production in Q4.

Yes, I think it would move the SP significantly. And by way of punishment, all major networks should have to stream Lopez's famous 'it's just a muddy field" BS-FUD-hitpiece from February...

 

[KSilver2000]

I am still convinced that the Taycan will actually help sell performance model S cars. Wait till it starts shipping. Buyers will test drive it. 15% of them will compare vs S and buy the S instead. Porsche may sell every one they can make as well.

Let's take a typical Porsche car shopper as an example. They go into the Porsche dealer and take a test drive. What about the Porsche test drive would make that 15% say, "I'd rather buy a Tesla"? If they really thought that, they probably weren't a Porsche buyer to begin with.

Lack of competing autopilot/FSD software? Lack of supercharger network? They should have known that already before stepping into the Porsche dealer. Very, very few will cross shop an $80,000 Tesla with a $110,000-plus Porsche.

 

[Skryll]

Given that the EPA range of the 4S should be under 200mi, then what's the range on the base trim going to be? Less than an Ioniq?

Given that the performance of the 4s is halfway between a M3P and an AWD, what will the performance of the base trim be like - a Leaf?

(I hate to say it, but since everyone else is playing the WLTP "Up to" range game, Tesla really should as well... While simultaneously arguing to ban it as deceptive advertizing. WLTP in general disadvantages Tesla (unreasonably de-stresses aero vs. EPA, and the "Up to" game turns it into a farce)

Best strategy would be for tesla to quote both, EPA and 'WLPT up to' because then observers get a feel for how much to discount audi/porsche advertised range numbers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Porsche increases Taycan production capacity after seeing high demand - Electrek

Thank you for posting a statement from a lying and cheating company that has provided absolutely zero verifiable information to back up their claims.

I seem to remember Jaguar and Audi touting that they were going to increase production and/or saw high levels of interest/reservations right before the Etron and Ipace were released. How did that go for them?

 

[Remus]

Porsche increases Taycan production capacity after seeing high demand - Electrek

Yeah I still remember vividly that when Tesla introduced the cheaper model 3 stock price tanked because "no demand"!! Now Porsche scrambled to bring out cheaper version must mean no demand for Tesla too?!

Removed, no name calling - mod

 

[sparcs]

Founder of Electric Vehicle Startup Faraday Files for Bankruptcy
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Maybe Tesla could pick up the Nevada land at fire sale prices for a future gigafactory?

(assuming Faraday also gets sold off/shutdown)

Edit: apparently that land just got sold off recently: Faraday Future sells North Las Vegas land slated for car plant

 

[Curt Renz]

“The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”

― Socrates 469-399 BC

 

[Pezpunk]

I seem to remember Jaguar and Audi touting that they were going to increase production and/or saw high levels of interest/reservations right before the Etron and Ipace were released. How did that go for them?

i find it very easy to believe there's a LOT more excitement around the Taycan than either the etron or ipace. They are definitely going to sell a lot of them right off the bat on hype alone.

But after that initial wave of buyers, how will sales hold up? Acceleration and handling are stellar (and as everyone is finally realizing, this is the lowest-hanging fruit when it comes to electric motors and floor-mounted batteries). But I think VW is being insanely dishonest about the Taycan's range (as well as charging speed) -- I wish more publications would call them out on that aspect!

Once people get over the initial euphoria of an electric Porsche and really start to compare numbers ... is there a sustainable train of people willing to shell out over one hundred thousand dollars for a car with 180 miles of realistic range? Even the cheapest model is slower, costs more, and has less range than a comparable Tesla. And while it's unclear which one charges faster, there's no doubt Tesla's charging network utterly crushes what's available for Porsche.

 

[JusRelax]

Yeah I still remember vividly that when Tesla introduced the cheaper model 3 stock price tanked because "no demand"!! Now Porsche scrambled to bring out cheaper version must mean no demand for Tesla too?!

I miss the time your post weren't cynical against Tesla in it's entirety. Now your just a troll.

As far as I know, @RobStark isn't a troll. I don't think he's bearish on Tesla at all. Granted, I haven't read everything on this forum, but I don't think I've seen a single post from him revealing a bearish position on Tesla. He does seem quite bullish on Porsche, but that doesn't make him bearish on Tesla.

If I were to take a guess, I'd say he's more of the belief that there's plenty of room in the high-performance EV market for both Porsche and Tesla.