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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I can't decide if the target of this Ford ad is SpaceX or Model Y or just a jab at Elon. Maybe its supposed to be all three, but then hey Ford show me your rockets.
Wasn't that an Oldsmobile thing? Laughing my Fords as Olds: LMFAO
So Ford is worried now about the future of their Explorers? Wait til next month when the F-150 killer debuts. Looking forward to that ad... "The Wrong Stuff"?
I don't think that ad has anything to do with Elon, SpaceX or Tesla.
I think you have to live and breathe Tesla to see that in this ad.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
This is pretty easy to google.
FCA buys US ZEV credits from Tesla on an ad hoc basis.
The deal to pool credits is for the European Union.
It is limited to the number of Tesla vehicles delivered to the EU plus Norway since Norway opted into this CO2 limitation program. I have not read of Iceland or Switzerland opting in.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Correct - the EU ZEV credits only count for EU (plus Norway, Switzerland?) deliveries.
The measurement of CO2 emissions begins in January 2020, the first CO2 penalties are due in 2021 (based on 2020 emissions averages).
But neither FCA nor Tesla operates in a vacuum: their deal might involve U.S. credits as well. Once FCA buys ZEV credits for one market they might as well use the same source for other markets as well? FCA needs the credits, Tesla has plenty of them and has some geographic imbalance between quarterly deliveries, so it would be advantageous to both of them to have a wider deal than just the EU.
But I don't think we know for sure, very little of this has been disclosed AFAIK.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
No, you are right, I confused GAAP and non-GAAP estimates. Here's @KarenRei's current snapshot of FactSet estimates:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla's supply.
FCA can make use of about ~200k Tesla EU deliveries for 2020 to reduce EU fines to zero if FCA BEVs and PHEV sales don't increase.
OEMs need for credits only increase in subsequent years.
FCA hopes to sell enough BEVs and long range PHEVs to not need to buy Tesla credits in or around 2023-2025.
So next year assuming GF1 can make 400k+ vehicles and none are shipped to China we could potentially see a decent portion of the limit being used.
Do you know the fee per vehicle from FCA to Tesla? Do you think it is high enough for Tesla to prioritise deliveries to EU over US to extract additional revenue from each vehicle?
If that's correct then Tesla's huge EU scaleup in Q3 - which looks to continue and maybe even accelerate in Q4, based on how heavily they're focusing on European exports - is extremely positive for credit income growth.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
For U.S. ZEV credits I'm pretty sure the limit is FCA's (and GM's) demand.
For the EU, I don't think Tesla can deliver enough: first ~37k units are worth about €21,000 EUR (!):
ZEVs beyond the first 37,000 are worth €10,500 per unit.
FCA needs 190,000 units to reach their goal - assuming their "20% reduction via ICE technologies" doesn't include software hacks, it appears EU regulators have wised up to those techniques meanwhile...
If we assume FCA and Tesla are splitting the ZEV advantages 50%/50% the ZEV income to Tesla is €10,500 for the first 37,000 units and €5,250 per unit for the rest, in 2020.
It's unclear to me how the payments by FCA are timed: the credits are earned in 2020, but the penalties begin in 2021. I assume the payments begin in 2020 - but this is not a certainty.
That's almost 45,000 vehicles in the EU alone per quarter, twice the current rate, with very healthy margins ...
Singer3000
Member
Finally caught up after about a week. The battery / nickel discussion a couple of days ago was great.
Some further thoughts. Indonesia's unexpectedly accelerated ban on the export of raw nickel ore has been causing a lot of ructions in the market.
Miners welcome Indonesian export ore ban, plan smelting expansion
The China domestic premium inverted for the first time, the forward curve went into a quite unusual period of very volatile backwardation and there has been an unprecedented withdrawal of physical stock from the LME exchange. One assumes that spot prices might continue to rise.
LME Starts Inquiry Into Nickel Trading as Inventories Plunge
Further, there's some good high level discussion on nickel laterites in this slightly-aged prezzo:
https://www.metsengineering.com/wp-...-Processing-and-The-Rise-of-Laterites_JBM.pdf
While others have laid out a good case for Tesla moving all the way upstream, it should also be acknowledged that this would not come without quite significant additional risks beyond the finance risks mentioned by others.
Building an integrated mining/smelting capability helps build reliability of supply and takes away volatility in both the index price, as well as treatment & refining charges, which can be quite volatile itself. But looking at the geographic distribution of deposits, it is also highly likely to add material country, environmental and social risks on top.
Building such capacity in emerging markets is not for the fainthearted, increases the risk that Tesla (quite perversely) becomes the target of environmental protection groups and almost inevitably makes them susceptible to workforce industrialization in a way they have so far managed to avoid.
Elon is from South Africa so I guess he knows how dirty commodities production can be (and I don't just mean environmentally). I have every faith he's hired some excellent mining and metals consultants or will do so shortly. They will need to be world class if they are to pull this off. I do have to wonder just how many globally embedded businesses Elon has the headspace to disrupt. I've no doubt if he turned his attention to mining he'd tear it up but he'd no doubt learn some painful lessons first and he only has so many hours in the day.
It's also going to take A LOT of capital. Since Elon seems quite reluctant to materially dilute his shareholding, it's tricky to see how they simultaneously pull off upstream vertical integration and rapid expansion to the 1-2 TWh level. That is, without first Elon being in a position to substantially lever up against SpaceX (post Starlink perhaps?) or Tesla having cracked FSD and becoming a printing press. I'm fascinated to see what they're going to say at the Battery Day, they're far smarter than me so no doubt they have a plan they think will work.
Australia by the way seems a no-brainer candidate for a stationary storage Gigafactory, especially so if Mike Cannon-Brooks mega solar project in between Darwin and Alice Springs comes together.
Some further thoughts. Indonesia's unexpectedly accelerated ban on the export of raw nickel ore has been causing a lot of ructions in the market.
Miners welcome Indonesian export ore ban, plan smelting expansion
The China domestic premium inverted for the first time, the forward curve went into a quite unusual period of very volatile backwardation and there has been an unprecedented withdrawal of physical stock from the LME exchange. One assumes that spot prices might continue to rise.
LME Starts Inquiry Into Nickel Trading as Inventories Plunge
Further, there's some good high level discussion on nickel laterites in this slightly-aged prezzo:
https://www.metsengineering.com/wp-...-Processing-and-The-Rise-of-Laterites_JBM.pdf
While others have laid out a good case for Tesla moving all the way upstream, it should also be acknowledged that this would not come without quite significant additional risks beyond the finance risks mentioned by others.
Building an integrated mining/smelting capability helps build reliability of supply and takes away volatility in both the index price, as well as treatment & refining charges, which can be quite volatile itself. But looking at the geographic distribution of deposits, it is also highly likely to add material country, environmental and social risks on top.
Building such capacity in emerging markets is not for the fainthearted, increases the risk that Tesla (quite perversely) becomes the target of environmental protection groups and almost inevitably makes them susceptible to workforce industrialization in a way they have so far managed to avoid.
Elon is from South Africa so I guess he knows how dirty commodities production can be (and I don't just mean environmentally). I have every faith he's hired some excellent mining and metals consultants or will do so shortly. They will need to be world class if they are to pull this off. I do have to wonder just how many globally embedded businesses Elon has the headspace to disrupt. I've no doubt if he turned his attention to mining he'd tear it up but he'd no doubt learn some painful lessons first and he only has so many hours in the day.
It's also going to take A LOT of capital. Since Elon seems quite reluctant to materially dilute his shareholding, it's tricky to see how they simultaneously pull off upstream vertical integration and rapid expansion to the 1-2 TWh level. That is, without first Elon being in a position to substantially lever up against SpaceX (post Starlink perhaps?) or Tesla having cracked FSD and becoming a printing press. I'm fascinated to see what they're going to say at the Battery Day, they're far smarter than me so no doubt they have a plan they think will work.
Australia by the way seems a no-brainer candidate for a stationary storage Gigafactory, especially so if Mike Cannon-Brooks mega solar project in between Darwin and Alice Springs comes together.
Yeah - Australia is a hard sell for a vehicle Gigafactory, but whenever they want a dedicated energy Gigafactory for southeast Asia, it's a total no-brainer. If Australia creates the demand, a local Gigafactory will surely follow.
How come you can even Tweet the idiot - I've been blocked for over two years now. Are you also on the $TSLAQ block list?
For the Model X, it's called losing flexibility as you and your friends age.I can see this happening.
But it's not called "discriminating", it's called "insecure".
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Yes I’m on the TSLAQ block list. I was surprised I wasn’t blocked too.
The exchange continued until he asked for my full name (uh, hello?), address, etc...at which point he turned into a genuine creeper and I moved on, lol.
Todd Burch on Twitter
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
That basket has become the forbidden fruit. Stay away...it's nothing but rotten apples.
Dan
RobStark
Well-Known Member
First Mazda BEV/PHEV for 2021.
35.5 kWh pack for 125 miles of range and 50 kW charging.
Optional rotary wankel engine serving as a range extender.
This would have been so cool.
In 2011.
Pezpunk
Active Member
jeez they just ..... don’t get it, do they?
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