Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

There is something fascinating about watching the SP being slowly walked down to MaxPain today. And, yes, it is a low-volume day.

 

[Fact Checking]

There is something fascinating about watching the SP being slowly walked down to MaxPain today. And, yes, it is a low-volume day.

And then Elon screws all the shorts by announcing to go off Twitter. Go figure!

 

[FreqFlyer]

Poof!

View attachment 472088

He has 29 million followers, I don't believe it. A hiatus maybe, but not quitting Twitter.

If true, the collective gasp you hear would be coming from the SEC offices.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe, but I think it is more important to offer a “trade-up” of the FSD option. I purchased FSD with my 2018 S when it was $3k and really. had no content. Now to trade up to a “Raven” I would be paying $7k for FSD plus my original $3k. This keeps getting move of a disincentive in the future, and already outstrips the “free supercharging”, estimated prepaid value about $2k.

Would be great to give credit for full FSD when trading in, but even a differential credit for previous FSD payment would be nice.

Indeed. As a practical matter, what happens when a car with FSD is totalled and written off? Is FSD purchased on the new replacement vehicle, or just given credit at the old price? Presumably this software did not wear out since purchase, so no write-down should be applied? But why not just transfer the usage rights to the new vehicle?

Otherwise, this is an obvious disincentive for exisiting FSD owners to trade up their vehicle for a new one.

 

[Mike Smith]

China says it's reached a consensus on core points with the US during this week's trade talks

 

[Tslynk67]

He has 29 million followers, I don't believe it. A hiatus maybe, but not quitting Twitter.

No, I don't imagine so either. He might be off to China for GF3 opening though - this has to happen at some point and I would be very remiss of him not to be there.

However Twitter is very screwed-up the way they allow TSLAQ cretins and low-IQ presidents to behave, but ban a guy for nothing because some snot-faced twerp made a lot of noise.

 

[Electroman]

To be clear: the DMCA did not get @tesla_truth banned. That is the excuse that is being used. This goes OT, but is something I have dealt with (including abuse of it). The short version is that the DMCA does not require removal of the material, much less suspension, much less a ban (though removal is a very common response). Those are all Twitter's policy for addressing their responsibilities under the DMCA as a service provider. Bringing up counter-notices is a non sequitur in the present case (and they are largely irrelevant in the general case, but that is a longer discussion).

There is no situation wherein the DMCA requires suspending or banning a user. Period.

The biggest problem with the DMCA in terms of abuse is that you can cause a take down of material in which you do not have a copyright interest, nor do you need to claim one. And, yes, that is a problem I have seen. But it is irrelevant to the vast majority of DMCA filings and to the present case.

The problem with Twitter is their policy, not DMCA requirements.

[edit: how do I know? years of experience with processing DMCA notices and crafting DMCA policy and debating DMCA requirements with other people in similar positions]

What if each one of us repost the same picture from our twitter accounts? Is he going to file suit to ban all of the accounts? How absurd will that be !

 

[Artful Dodger]

More 10-Q analysis:

How Tesla Increased Its Margins on Lower Sales | The Motley Fool

"As you can see, though Tesla's revenue went down, margins increased... by a lot. The magnitude of the margin increase is the result of great management on not one but several fronts. "​

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

You want to quibble about what 'arbitary' means? I already said "Presuming they reach the 'feature complete' milestone in 2020Q1". After that's in the bag, they can choose when and how much revenue to recognize. Nobody can complain about Tesla unlocking too little revenue (unless that's your complaint). The smart move is to claim enough to smooth out any Q1 lull, and keep the rest in their back pocket.

I never want to "quibble" but the recognition of Tesla's FSD is not a trivial matter. The definition of "arbitrary" is: "based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system.". I'm just saying that Tesla has to be able to justify the method they use to recognize revenue and it has to make sense. And, yes, an auditor *can* question and take issue when the revenue is recognized too liberally *or* too conservatively. The method used must be reasonable and based on logical methods.

 

[S3XY]

Elon is mad about Twitter banning "Steve Jobs Ghost". Me too. I really think Elon should start a website. Get 20 developers, this can be done under $20m.

Pravduh.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Blade Runner is set NOW: What November 2019 predictions did Harrison Ford movie get right?

Its Nov. 1, we are at least guaranteed on seeing the new pickup truck within 29 days.

 

[VValleyEV]

Here’s a new piece of FUD, well new to me but probably old hat to most of you:

My neighbor talked on FB ordering a Tesla Y, and got this comment:
“Tesla covers all repairs on their vehicles for 7 years. The oldest Teslas are now 6 years old. After 7 years, Tesla will not service their own vehicles anymore. Drive motors for the wheels are something like $10K each. The display is $8K. And these things do fail. After 7 years, the owner is on his own.”

I supplied the link to Tesla warantee showing coverage of battery and power train for 8 years or X miles (varies per model), but am surprised on two points:

1. The presumably looney idea that Tesla service centers will flat refuse to do any work at all on your car once the 8 year warrantee expires.
2. The idea that paying for repairs to your drivetrain after 8 years is so different than ICE cars purchased from Ford/GM/etc. My quick check tells me the ICE powertrain warantee is about 5 years and 60k miles. You can get extended warantees, but for comparison we are looking at 8year/100k miles vs 5yr/60k miles. If one argues that EV drivetrain components are more expensive to repair/replace, one has to argue that this is not made up for by the longer Tesla warantee, and/or the better expected reliability of EV drivetrains over ICE.

Any suggestions on countering this effectively? I expect I will see this again.

 

[Nocturnal]

China says it's reached a consensus on core points with the US during this week's trade talks

If it's like everything else the current admin has done, it will wind up being basically how it was before, with enough things moved around to claim victory.

 

[adiggs]

Here’s a new piece of FUD, well new to me but probably old hat to most of you:

My neighbor talked on FB ordering a Tesla Y, and got this comment:
“Tesla covers all repairs on their vehicles for 7 years. The oldest Teslas are now 6 years old. After 7 years, Tesla will not service their own vehicles anymore. Drive motors for the wheels are something like $10K each. The display is $8K. And these things do fail. After 7 years, the owner is on his own.”

I supplied the link to Tesla warantee showing coverage of battery and power train for 8 years or X miles (varies per model), but am surprised on two points:

1. The presumably looney idea that Tesla service centers will flat refuse to do any work at all on your car once the 8 year warrantee expires.
2. The idea that paying for repairs to your drivetrain after 8 years is so different than ICE cars purchased from Ford/GM/etc. My quick check tells me the ICE powertrain warantee is about 5 years and 60k miles. You can get extended warantees, but for comparison we are looking at 8year/100k miles vs 5yr/60k miles. If one argues that EV drivetrain components are more expensive to repair/replace, one has to argue that this is not made up for by the longer Tesla warantee, and/or the better expected reliability of EV drivetrains over ICE.

Any suggestions on countering this effectively? I expect I will see this again.

laughter?

 

[StealthP3D]

If that happens, I will be strongly tempted to go plaid and use that thing we should not use, leverage...

Please don't use leverage! The time for that was under $200.

That said, I do like the shape of this chart. I still maintain it won't go below $300 and my buy this morning at $310 is looking like the low for the day and possibly for this correction. IMO, this is a very healthy little bit of consolidation before moving higher.

 

[Chocochip]

He has 29 million followers, I don't believe it. A hiatus maybe, but not quitting Twitter.

If true, the collective gasp you hear would be coming from the SEC offices.

I truly believe that the #TSLAQ crowd would be far more affected by Elon going off Twitter than the Tesla supporters, as they'd be losing their favourite pastime. They love to hate Elon. It's also more difficult to exercise news nullification when one of the main news sources -- that was frustratingly pre-announcing announcements -- dries up. So in a way, this may be beneficial to the cause, the same way that Elon learned to underpromise & overdeliver in the past several months, and to rein in some of his more out-there tweets.

Now, before everyone here clicks that sexy Disagree button, let me just say that I do enjoy Elon's tweets as much as the next fanboi. But then I also enjoy a bit of schadenfreude once in a while.

 

[shootformoon]

Maybe we need a tsla investor crowdfunding to sue these shorts who spread rumors for security fraud and financial loss inflicted. Some people deserve to be institutionalized or homeless.

Here’s a new piece of FUD, well new to me but probably old hat to most of you:

My neighbor talked on FB ordering a Tesla Y, and got this comment:
“Tesla covers all repairs on their vehicles for 7 years. The oldest Teslas are now 6 years old. After 7 years, Tesla will not service their own vehicles anymore. Drive motors for the wheels are something like $10K each. The display is $8K. And these things do fail. After 7 years, the owner is on his own.”

I supplied the link to Tesla warantee showing coverage of battery and power train for 8 years or X miles (varies per model), but am surprised on two points:

1. The presumably looney idea that Tesla service centers will flat refuse to do any work at all on your car once the 8 year warrantee expires.
2. The idea that paying for repairs to your drivetrain after 8 years is so different than ICE cars purchased from Ford/GM/etc. My quick check tells me the ICE powertrain warantee is about 5 years and 60k miles. You can get extended warantees, but for comparison we are looking at 8year/100k miles vs 5yr/60k miles. If one argues that EV drivetrain components are more expensive to repair/replace, one has to argue that this is not made up for by the longer Tesla warantee, and/or the better expected reliability of EV drivetrains over ICE.

Any suggestions on countering this effectively? I expect I will see this again.

 

[StealthP3D]

I truly believe that the #TSLAQ crowd would be far more affected by Elon going off Twitter than the Tesla supporters, as they'd be losing their favourite pastime. They love to hate Elon. It's also more difficult to exercise news nullification when one of the main news sources -- that was frustratingly pre-announcing announcements -- dries up. So in a way, this may be beneficial to the cause, the same way that Elon learned to underpromise & overdeliver in the past several months, and to rein in some of his more out-there tweets.

Now, before everyone here clicks that sexy Disagree button, let me just say that I do enjoy Elon's tweets as much as the next fanboi. But then I also enjoy a bit of schadenfreude once in a while.

I'm surprised you think you will get a lot of disagrees with that. If Elon Musk decided to announce "radio silence" then people here would probably support that. The last time he recently announced radio silence was a few days before the stock shot up $50/share.

 

[AZRI11]

​

What if each one of us repost the same picture from our twitter accounts? Is he going to file suit to ban all of the accounts? How absurd will that be !

I already did that Louis Botelho on Twitter

 

[keydiver]

Indeed. As a practical matter, what happens when a car with FSD is totalled and written off?

I don't know about FSD, but I purchased the Enhanced Autopilot for my wife's L3MUR back in December 2018, after purchase, so it was $5500! My Enhanced Autopilot did include a couple features that have since been moved to FSD, like Auto Lane Change, and Summon, and since I had a separate invoice from Tesla for the $5500 purchase, Progressive paid me the full amount. I upgraded to a LR AWD Model 3, and actually made money on the deal. I do miss the auto lane change though.