Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AlMc]

Is this you? No.
Alter Viggo on Twitter

Oh, btw this thread says F signed up to VW's MEB EV platform:
Ford and Volkswagen team up on EVs, with Ford the first outside automaker to use VW’s MEB platform – TechCrunch

So, seems like this would put an end to F/Tesla partnership speculations.

. See above

 

[KarenRei]

To: Boss Short

Monday front page headline.

Tesla partners with Ford in last ditch effort to save company.

Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

Fun facts:

Debt-to-Equity ratios:
* Tesla: 2,38
* Ford: 4,4

Debt-to-EBITDA:
* Tesla: 6,66
* Ford: 32,05

TSLAQ will try the humourous excuse of, "Well, that's mostly in their lending unit, you can't count that!" As if you can just chop off portions of your debt that make your balance sheet look bad (does Tesla get to do that with its SolarCity debt? ). As if Ford's lending unit isn't a critical, integral part of their business. As if said debt isn't significantly more risky than Tesla's due to the risk of significant devaluation of the backing assets.

 

[dww12]

This is based on the speculation of having battery production going through the roof within a few years because he guided for terawatt hrs worth which is 30x of today's capacity. Tesla wouldn't need more than 10x to power all the products you named for the new few years. I mean in 10 years Tesla probably need 1terawatt, now surely there's not enough production capacity for cars to utilize that much.

Battery investor day will give us exactly how and When Tesla will get there. The when determines how this speculation goes.

Yes, if there is a Tesla/Ford partnership battery day is going to have some bat sh#% crazy production breakthrough because paint shop has become their limiting factor.

 

[Singuy]

I *do* think the future of Tesla might be as the world's largest battery manufacturer. In time there will be many, many partnerships. Obviously, I was speaking of imminent announcements. I just don't see that happening unless a company has something that Tesla wants. And anyone speculating about such a partnership should lay that necessary part of any partnership out in a way that makes sense.

If Tesla and Ford partners up, then this will pretty much confirms where Tesla is going with Maxwell tech in 2020-2021. So it doesn't mean Tesla is desperate for something from Ford. It just means they are guiding for battery and power train production up the ass in 2 years.

 

[StealthP3D]

Dealerships everywhere, service centers everywhere

That makes no sense! Elon Musk has not been shy about letting known his dislike of traditional auto-dealerships. Anyone who doesn't understand that probably shouldn't be investing in Tesla with real money.

 

[kcveins]

Well, 1,000 shares of Ford would cost ~$1,020, and 1,000 shares of TSLA....( more than I can afford)
and if F bounces up say $1.00/share......

I think F is trading higher than $1....

 

[StealthP3D]

If Tesla and Ford partners up, then this will pretty much confirms where Tesla is going with Maxwell tech in 2020-2021. So it doesn't mean Tesla is desperate for something from Ford. It just means they are guiding for battery and power train production up the ass in 2 years.

Tesla and Ford partnering up at this point in time (this year or even next year) is so ludicrous I'm not sure why anyone is even contemplating it. Makes *ZERO* sense to anyone who understands where Tesla is going.

 

[dww12]

That makes no sense! Elon Musk has not been shy about letting known his dislike of traditional auto-dealerships. Anyone who doesn't understand that probably shouldn't be investing in Tesla with real money.

He distrusts dealers selling HIS cars. This was also several years ago, 2020 will not be 2013. If Y sells 2X Model 3, there is going to need to be wider service in BFE, like the state of NM, or small rural towns.

 

[Singuy]

That makes no sense! Elon Musk has not been shy about letting known his dislike of traditional auto-dealerships. Anyone who doesn't understand that probably shouldn't be investing in Tesla with real money.

I think as of today, in the year 2019, I believe Tesla is correct thinking that dealerships will sank any new car company. The only way for survival is to use efficiency tools of the 21st century. They need to be online, solve logistics and inventory problems, and vertical integrate. Then focus more on software vs capex intensive hardware(by simplifying production and options).

The legacy makers has set up a well oiled machine with their dealership programs. Even though it cost Ford, but not nearly as much as say a new company trying to establish the same thing. The dealership system is way more organized for the legacy logistically and gives them way less headache when it comes to service. Tesla has to solve every little problem because they own it all while 3rd party people deal with all that at the dealer level.

So yes dealerships are inefficient but what is done is done. It does have certain advantages.

 

[MC3OZ]

He distrusts dealers selling HIS cars. This was also several years ago, 2020 will not be 2013. If Y sells 2X Model 3, there is going to need to be wider service in BFE, like the state of NM, or small rural towns.

I think the issue is how much money dealers need to make on a Tesla sale, given maintenance is lower.
With fewer larger delivery centres and home delivery, Tesla can deliver cars more efficiently....

So dealers would probably eat into Tesla's margin, or increase the price of cars...

 

[Fred42]

Only 5900 people on YouTube waiting to see the Mustang Mach-E World Debut?

 

[2virgule5]

Ford has $$$ that Tesla wants but more importantly, every drive train Tesla make sold to Ford is one less ICE car shipped out of Ford. Tesla is the only company not dragging their feet. They will put that $$ to more super chargers and more gigafactores. We don't know what Maxwell tech is capable of but if Tesla can scale up cell production by 10x vs today then they absolutely want to start selling power trains vs having all these other companies waiting for LG to give them enough to build compliance cars.

I can't believe you are starting to think Tesla is only a car company. I am rooting for power train partnership with anybody and everybody.

Any partnership now would mean complete abandonment of FSD/robotaxi, or at least indefinite delay... Why would Tesla give ‘appreciating assets’ away like this?

Edit: let alone leaving all the software margin on the table... makes really no sense to me until they scale their Battery production.

 

[madodel]

Has TMC changed to FMC? All this obsession with Ford because they show a prototype for an EV hatchback. There wasn't this much activity about the equally ugly Bolt.

Anyone watching the 60 Minutes story on CBS about deep sea mining? Fascinating. No need to excavate Mars. Lots of Nickel, Manganese and Cobalt nodules just sitting on the seafloor. Will Elon get interested in deep sea diving next?

 

[pz1975]

Wow Ford options are really cheap. I just looked at $9 calls expiring next Friday (stock closed at $8.95 Friday) and the bid/ask is $0.08/0.09. That is crazy low compared to what I am used to looking at (TSLA and AMZN). It is obviously because the stock has very low IV but there is basically no anticipated run-up from the EV demo tomorrow. It might be worth taking a flyer. Weird to get "lottery tickets" basically ATM.

 

[HG Wells]

Fun facts:

Debt-to-Equity ratios:
* Tesla: 2,38
* Ford: 4,4

Debt-to-EBITDA:
* Tesla: 6,66
* Ford: 32,05

TSLAQ will try the humourous excuse of, "Well, that's mostly in their lending unit, you can't count that!" As if you can just chop off portions of your debt that make your balance sheet look bad (does Tesla get to do that with its SolarCity debt? ). As if Ford's lending unit isn't a critical, integral part of their business. As if said debt isn't significantly more risky than Tesla's due to the risk of significant devaluation of the backing assets.

To: Tesla Fangirl

Please Note: We did not say which company was saving whom.
When writing headlines it is best to be ambidextrous.
Gets more clicks from lefties.

Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times.

Edit: PS You are one of the best.

 

[mongo]

Only 5900 people on YouTube waiting to see the Mustang Mach-E World Debut?

I'm waiting for the Avelli Edition.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Only 5900 people on YouTube waiting to see the Mustang Mach-E World Debut?

And I bet half of them are Tesla fans....

 

[Singuy]

Any partnership now would mean complete abandonment of FSD/robotaxi, or at least indefinite delay... Why would Tesla give ‘appreciating assets’ away like this?

Edit: let alone leaving all the software margin on the table... makes really no sense to me until they scale their Battery production.

Look at the release date of Ford. The car is not coming anytime soon while Tesla is sitting on some secret sauce for battery production right now.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Tesla could also bargain for royalties even after Ford goes to internal production.

Elon, hold out for something of real strategic value! I’m thinking 4 or 5 Texas Congress critters on just the right committee...

 

[EVNow]

Tesla and Ford partnering up at this point in time (this year or even next year) is so ludicrous I'm not sure why anyone is even contemplating it. Makes *ZERO* sense to anyone who understands where Tesla is going.

Tesla's partnership with any legacy OEM makes sense only when

Tesla has more batteries/motors than they can sell in their own cars
​

Why should Tesla give them any tech to help them with compliance ? Much better to sell them credits.