Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

And there is much data to say they are not.
From the days of the 3:
Reservation Numbers: How to read where you are in the queue.

But estimates off of RNs proved reasonably close when Elon tweeted the 146k...

 

[EVMeister]

I may not have the Cybertruck. But my wife got me this very cool owl candle.

 

[Buckminster]

I like you, but you’re pushing your luck not getting a disagree vote.

I'm glad you like me. The dead mouse on my porch every week is definitely preferable to the dreaded TMC disagree. My wife's reaction to the rodent is yet another TMC perk.

 

[EVNow]

Mine was at 1:37pm EST 11/23. This would be two hours later. Reservation number in sig. I don't think there's any convincing evidence though that they are sequential.

Considering how close we are in figuring out the number based on RN, most definitely there is convincing evidence RN is sequential.

And there is much data to say they are not.
From the days of the 3:
Reservation Numbers: How to read where you are in the queue.

Having worked in IT for a decade - I can tell you no software in IT remains unchanged for that long.

This tweet is from a few hours ago. @AlterViggo tracking RN over time.

Alter Viggo on Twitter

 

[mongo]

But estimates off of RNs proved reasonably close when Elon tweeted the 146k...

Yeah, Cybertruck numbers are much more sequential that 3's were. Maybe they stopped obfuscating. Or they are randomized but dense (as opposed to VINs which seem to have 20% surplus).

 

[snellenr]

mall those tools could probably fit in the frunk.

“Hey, Charlie! Where are all the tools?”
“Uh... under the wood...”

 

[RobStark]

I really don't think they set out to build an armoured vehicle. They set out to re-design the car manufacturing process from the bottom up to save capex and COGs.

No, they set out to build a "tough" electric truck that isn't fake "Ford tough" that doesn't have a base price of $70k or higher.


Tesla needed something that can overcome billions in propaganda without spending billions in propaganda.

Semi professional fleet customers are unconvinced by billions of dollars of Detroit propaganda and Country music. They look at spreadsheets.

 

[EVNow]

Yeah, Cybertruck numbers are much more sequential that 3's were. Maybe they stopped obfuscating. Or they are randomized but dense (as opposed to VINs which seem to have 20% surplus).

It is just a likely that the RNs are indeed sequential - and Musk gave a deduped number.

It is far easier to create a running series as the primary key of a table that is guaranteed to be unique.

 

[sundaymorning]

While it is true that the F-117 was covered with radar absorbing paint (a metallic rubber compound AFAIK), the sharp angles and flat surfaces were also reflecting away radar pulses that made it through the radar absorbing paint.

Flat, polished metal surfaces will mirror photons that have a wavelength smaller than the surface, like they do in visible wavelengths:

View attachment 480685​

reducing the radar signature.

Most airplanes have round surfaces facing the airstream:

View attachment 480680​

Those round, flat metallic surfaces of the wings and nose of commercial aircraft will reflect radar pulses right back at the radar station or attacking/defending aircraft that is sending them.

The F-117 reflects most of these photons up or down, due to the flat mirror effect:

View attachment 480686​

A third radar signature concern for stealth aircraft is "edge diffraction" of the trailing/flap side of the wing (cm wavelength radar photons can only be reflected imperfectly and their wave nature creates diffraction), which the F-117 solved via the characteristic zig-zag pattern:

View attachment 480684​

So with all that in mind, here's my estimate of the Cybertruck's radar signature:

• Flat angled nose and hood will reflect away radar and reduce radar signature.
• Sharp edges perpendicular to the airflow will increase forward radar signature.

TLDR: While I'd expect the Cybertuck have a lower radar signature than similarly sized conventional trucks, the SpaceX Options Package or the Aquatic Options Package will be essential to reliably ... skip over radar traps.

Are you saying that the Easter egg to the cybertruck is that it’s undetectable by radar, which equates to less tickets for speeding moms rushing to pick up their kids at school in their new truck?

 

[Christine69420]

“Hey, Charlie! Where are all the tools?”
“Uh... under the wood...”

No - in the frunk - at the front of the car.

 

[2virgule5]

Unless the stock jumps +100, which it might.

If it does I’m buying a third one, for absolutely no reason at all.

 

[mongo]

It is just a likely that the RNs are indeed sequential - and Musk gave a deduped number.

It is far easier to create a running series as the primary key of a table that is guaranteed to be unique.

True, true. Current data does look sequential. Although, pure sequential is slightly less easy if you have a distributed database. Then you need to batch release subranges or add a source ID.

 

[dgodfrey]

Alright, I have ordered the ATV.

RN112956337
View attachment 480820

Reminds me of my daughter's, father in law who bought a $30,000 boat which came with a really nice Yeti cooler. The joke was he bought a $30,000 cooler and it came with a free boat.
Buy a $50,000 Tesla Electric ATV and it comes with it's own Cybertruck shuttle.

 

[kengchang]

Thanks for your service.....I am a Army Veteran also.....Computed data for SPECIAL WEAPONS..... The BIG ONE.......

MOAB? or even bigger

 

[kbM3]

Tim Dodd aka Every Day Astronaut is absolutely brilliant and one of my favorite Youtubers. Unfortunately, it seems even he missed the advantages of Cybertruck. The 3 in this video (Ben Sullins (no respect), Joe Scott (medium high respect) and Tim) all missed the Cybertruck’s advantages. They could only talk about how if only Tesla didn’t have a tapered rear or the triangular shape, they could have upended the Pickup industry. Tim did point out the triangle might give chassis stiffness advantages, but then seemed to think it not worth it, because looks.

 

[EVNow]

True, true. Current data does look sequential. Although, pure sequential is slightly less easy if you have a distributed database. Then you need to batch release subranges or add a source ID.

I don't want to take this off topic - but for a small order management system you don't need distributed db. In anycase, there is zero reason for Tesla IT to be managing such things rather than taking advantage of OOB features in leading RDBMS.

 

[kengchang]

I don't want to take this off topic - but for a small order management system you don't need distributed db. In anycase, there is zero reason for Tesla IT to be managing such things rather than taking advantage of OOB features in leading RDBMS.

Either DB generated as PK when inserted or have a order number generator that you pull a # from.

 

[Beltsbear]

Are you saying that the Easter egg to the cybertruck is that it’s undetectable by radar, which equates to less tickets for speeding moms rushing to pick up their kids at school in their new truck?

It will be harder to catch with a speed laser. Not impossible but harder. Radar will probably get it but be less accurate which could be an out too.

 

[Beltsbear]

Tim Dodd aka Every Day Astronaut is absolutely brilliant and one of my favorite Youtubers. Unfortunately, it seems even he missed the advantages of Cybertruck. The 3 in this video (Ben Sullins (no respect), Joe Scott (medium high respect) and Tim) all missed the Cybertruck’s advantages. They could only talk about how if only Tesla didn’t have a tapered rear or the triangular shape, they could have upended the Pickup industry. Tim did point out the triangle might give chassis stiffness advantages, but then seemed to think it not worth it, because looks.

The cybertruck is not for everyone. Ask your doctor if the cybertruck is right for you.

 

[mongo]

It will be harder to catch with a speed laser. Not impossible but harder. Radar will probably get it but be less accurate which could be an out too.

Those pesky licenses plates though.