This question of 37M cars in 2024 has been a question in my mind for quite a while. Is it possible Kathie is talking about EVs, not BEVs? If so, that is doable IMO. (i.e., including PHEVs). The only way 37M BEVs is going to happen is 1) a massive increase in battery pack supply and 2) the licensing of Tesla's operating and battery management systems to others.
I suspect that Kathie is including PHEVs, as this is the way most EV report track them. However, I don't think that PHEVs will have much market share left by 2025. This pretty much comes down to pack cost for BEVs. As pack costs drop below $100/kWh, the ICE as a range extender becomes a more expensive way to add range than simply packing more cells. I think the average pack price will hit this threshold in 2021 or 2022.
Now if there are limitation with scaling up the battery supply chain, then the average price won't need to go that low. Some battery makers will be able to sell at a premium while EV makers that have locked in lower pack cost will enjoy bigger profit margin and grab market share from the rest. So even in this sort of supply constrained scenario, Tesla is better positioned than most EV makers.
So the scenario that gives Tesla more grief is where the average pack cost drops below ICE parity and the supply available to competitors is plentiful. In that sort of scenario, PHEVs drop out of the market pretty fast as do ICE vehicles. Hence, 37M EV spring into being and Tesla's dominance is at greatest risk.
So I think as an investor you can focus on those scenarios which are most challenging for Tesla. If your investment thesis hold, gret keep investing. If actualities go into scenarios that may be fewer than 37M EV, but more advantageous for Tesla, then you just change your outlook in time but maintain your investment. No one will care if Kathie was off about 37M EVs if it proves that Tesla is even more valuable than what was expected in a 37M EV scenario.
So I suspect what she is setting up is a "Tesla killer" scenario. If Tesla detractors want to push a narrative that the rest of the OEMs will catch up with Tesla and outmaneuver for market share, then it is their burden to defend the idea if EV sales hitting 37M or more in 2024. Sadly, Tesla critics have gotten away with articulating mutually exclusive outlooks simultaneously. Specifically, they want to hold a contradiction: 1) legacy OEMs will out compete Tesla soon, and 2) EV uptake will be a slow process. You really can't have it both ways so long as Tesla keeps to its relentless production ramp.
You could articulate the contradiction this way. First argue that Tesla will ramp production to 3.7M in 2024. Now if the industry is going to limit Tesla's market share to no more than 10% of the market, then total EV sales must exceed 37M in 2024. Otherwise, Tesla could be on a path to take significantly more share than Toyota or VW. So Tesla critics have to choose between two alternative Tesla is on a path to become the largest automaker or EV sales hit more than 37M in 2024. Either scenario is pretty threatening to the valuation of most OEMs.
My own outlook, as I've articulated in the EV market share thread for quite a while is that Tesla has the potential to walk away with more than 20% of the motor vehicle market. The path is that they first secure a 20% share of the EV market. Then they hold onto that share as the EV market pushes non-BEVs out of the wider market. At the end of the transition there are only EVs and Tesla is left hold a 20% share of the entire automotive market. What makes the longterm outlook most secure in 2024 is if while Tesla builds 3.7M units the total EV market is less than 18.5M, in which case Tesla has a 20% share of the EV market in 2024. But, hey, if the Big Boys want to get tough with Tesla, let them build 37M EVs in 2024.
