Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MichaelP90DL]

From Forbes: Tesla's Semi Truck Could Bring In $2 Billion In Revenues By 2025.

Tesla’s Semi Truck Could Bring In $2 Billion In Revenues By 2025

 

[JustMe]

Hmm, I'm liking this hypothesis

Speaking of new Superchargers... I don't know if I missed seeing this reported here (I'm still catching up), but *the Trans-Canada electric highway system just went live*. V3 baby!

View attachment 490873

Too bad it's too far north to be useful for Cannonball Run attempts

Yes this is so awesome and it goes without saying this should boost Tesla sales in Canada. Tesla is really starting to fill in the coverage gaps lately - Iceland, Puerto Rico, Kazakhstan, pushing into Eastern Europe.. Building a bigger market almost daily.

 

[Driver Dave]

Old wisdom:

Tesla doesn’t know car manufacturing.

New wisdom:

Car companies don’t know EV manufacturing.

 

[StealthP3D]

Here is some good news on deliveries:-
BOVAG: Tesla slijt in december ruim tienduizend Model 3’s
Tesla delivers 5,000 cars in November alone in China - Electrek

Come on, who are you trying to kid? Everyone know's demand for EV's in China just dried up. No way could they sell 5,000 of them in only one month. Must be fake news.

 

[StealthP3D]

BTW, anybody make anything from Musk's twitter reference to Technetium:
View attachment 490842

The WikiPedia entry (Technetium - Wikipedia) says: "It is a very rare example of a molecular metal oxide..."
and "When steel is immersed in water, adding a small concentration (55 ppm) of potassium pertechnetate(VII) to the water protects the steel from corrosion, even if the temperature is raised to 250 °C (523 K).[88] For this reason, pertechnetate has been used as an anodic corrosion inhibitor for steel, although technetium's radioactivity poses problems that limit this application to self-contained systems."

Maybe Tesla or SpaceX found a way around or an application where they can live with the radioactivity?

I imagine they apply it somewhere in the battery and it prevents degradation. Probably makes a super Li-ion battery with 30% improved energy density that can be charged faster at colder temperatures to a higher charge limit and even drained down to zero without harm. Then, when it's completely drained, simply applying a low current, high-frequency voltage from the 12V battery will unleash a hidden 10% charge.

Oh well, a guy can dream, can't he?

Whatever it is, I bet it's a good thing.

 

[jhm]

Expecting we’ll hit $430 by close today.

Spoiler: Market Psychoanalysis

Market movement is often driven by self-fulfilling prophesy, per Yoda. The price will be what you want it to be.

Maybe you did not believe hard enough.

If we focus all our our psychic powers on shorts...

 

[StealthP3D]

So bummed I have to wait till Monday to continue watching my new favorite streaming show (the TSLA stock ticker).

That's a bad habit.

I'm a fair-weather weather investor - I only waste time watching the ticker when it's going up. /s

 

[SpaceCash]

OK, genius investor. So what should I do with my Jan. 17 320c's, that are up 220% just 17 days after I bought them? Buy the shares at the strike price, or take the (taxable) profit?

Things were easier some months ago when TSLA was at 200 and I knew I just had to accumulate as much as I could...

Let em ride, chief

 

[RFernatt]

So bummed I have to wait till Monday to continue watching my new favorite streaming show (the TSLA stock ticker).

How about a reality show starring TSLA longs and TSLAQ members in the same house while the stock price streams? We can call it Volatility TV. TSLAQ would steal all the tin foil to stop Elon's mind control rays and hilarity would ensue.

 

[StealthP3D]

How about a reality show starring TSLA longs and TSLAQ members in the same house while the stock price streams? We can call it Volatility TV. TSLAQ would steal all the tin foil to stop Elon's mind control rays and hilarity would ensue.

The show would collapse as soon as the TSLAQ members started learning about the Tesla cars in the household and how nicely they drove. They would turn instantly into TSLA longs and the whole premise of the show would be destroyed. Of course, the producers would go bankrupt.

 

[StealthP3D]

My thoughts: Retail long buyers and short covering can not explain this week IMO. This is a large buyer(s).......plain and simple.

This means when people review their End of Year managed retirement account statements, many will find out they are now Tesla shareholders! Now it makes perfect sense for them to buy a Tesla. I mean, they are part owners!

 

[MichaelP90DL]

Yes this is so awesome and it goes without saying this should boost Tesla sales in Canada. Tesla is really starting to fill in the coverage gaps lately - Iceland, Puerto Rico, Kazakhstan, pushing into Eastern Europe.. Building a bigger market almost daily.

Tesla is now showing the world that it's well on its way to being a monster of a company and a monster success. I'm lovin' it.

 

[Thekiwi]

Sixth highest weekly volume of the year at 73M shares. Highest volume weeks of 2019:

1. Week of May 20th (98M shares) Open: 202.80 / Close: 190.63 NOTE: First full trading week after infamous cost cutting "10 months of cash burn rate" Elon leaked e-mail
2. Week of April 29th (78.7M shares) Open: 235.86 / Close: 255.03 NOTE: Week after Q1 Earnings
3. Week of October 21st (78.1M shares) Open: 258.33 / Close: 328.13 NOTE: Q3 Earnings Week
   
4. Week of April 22nd (78.0M shares) Open: 269.00 / Close: 235.14 NOTE: Autonomy Day / Q1 Earnings Week
5. Week of June 3rd (76.6M shares) Open: 185.51 / Close: 204.50 NOTE: 52-week low
6. Week of December 16th (73.2M shares) Open: 362.55 / Close: 405.59 (current week)

It should be noted that the next highest volume week is in the 50M range, so this is a significantly higher than average volume week.

I also think this week's volume is remarkable (almost double last week's), particularly for not occurring in conjunction with any single particularly newsworthy events, but rather a bevy of less significant events, including:

• EV tax credit extension legislation discussion (Monday/Tuesday)
• Shipping of MIC M3s and evidence of substantial MIC M3 production (Monday/Tuesday)
• TSLA breaking and sustaining ATHs into a new trading range (Wednesday - Friday)
• Model 3 acceleration boost DLC announcement (Thursday)
• VW ID3 software delay (Thursday)
• NTSB findings in Florida crash determining excessive speed to be factor (Thursday)
• Announcement of FSD preview / holiday software update (Friday)
• 5,000 Tesla registrations in China (Friday)

I have two thoughts on this: 1) This was a confluence of a lot of good news for Tesla/TSLA, without really any noteworthy bad news. Even so, I find it hard to believe that all of this news is worthy of the type of volume we saw this week. Instead, I am mindful of @DaveT's thoughts that news isn't what is driving this big move, but rather the interest of a (or multiple) new buyer(s) taking out a substantial stake. It is quite possible that the significance of this week's volume will become known only at a later date.

I'm interested in others' thoughts on this.

You forgot the Cramer pump - he doesn't come across as authentic, but he is definitely engaged in an almighty stock pump and he has millions of retail investors that watch his show and pay attention to what he says (rightly or wrongly as the case may be). wouldn't at all be surprised if he has a big institution aligned with his effort.

 

[sundaymorning]

Mercedes to slash its iconic AMG models:

Report: Mercedes-AMG range could be cut by 75 percent in 2020

The paper says that several Mercedes dealerships expect a production cutback as dramatic as 75 percent in response to a need to bring down its CO2 average from 138g/km to 100g/km. AMG models would be the target of such a cutback effort, the Financial Times notes, due to the fact that their emissions are the highest of the models in Mercedes' lineup; drastically shrinking their availability could bring down the fleet CO2 average.

 

[jhm]

Where is the price going next? I don't know, but here's a baseless conjecture.

Tesla tends to trade in a wide interval for several years before breaking into the next interval.

First, $20 to $36.
Second, $190 to $270
Third, $270 to $370
Fourth, $370 to ???

There was a transition from first interval to second. Likewise from the third to fourth, we've had a dal segno to $180 and back. Now we appear to be headed into the fourth interval.

So let's suppose that a certain interval will prevail over the next several years. What would be that range. Here's my totally baseless guess.

Fourth, $370 to $520.

I think there is a tremendous amount of attention on the $420, but that is too close to $370 to hold as an upper limit. We may get hung up at $420 for a while, but the real hype train needs much more range to roam. $470 could be a upper limit, but on a relative scale the range from $370 to $470 is really not that compelling. Musk's award is linked to a market cap of $100B or about $554/sh. So that will be a major battle with shorts. So I think $570 is too high for the fourth interval. So spitting the difference $520 seems about right and has some symbolic resonance with $420.

So there you go. Look for Tesla to be range bound between $370 and $520 for several years. The exciting part is that we could see the high $520 marked very quickly. Perhaps within 6 months.

Enjoy the ride!

 

[Artful Dodger]

A question for the market charting aficionados:

Does technical analysis have the flexibility to alter its forecasting techniques to account for exogenous variables like anomalously high levels of short interest?

I think it's obvious where I'm going here.

Sure, mark-up with crayons is very flexible. Is where you're going "the 12 Days of Christmas"?

To state the obvious: Somebody B.I.G. is running a buying program right now, and controlling the SP in a narrow upward channel, enforced by frequent increases in a 'buy-wall' floor to the SP.

Cheers!

P.S. Thanks, Larry!

 

[JustMe]

Where is the price going next? I don't know, but here's a baseless conjecture.

Tesla tends to trade in a wide interval for several years before breaking into the next interval.

First, $20 to $36.
Second, $190 to $270
Third, $270 to $370
Fourth, $370 to ???

There was a transition from first interval to second. Likewise from the third to fourth, we've had a dal segno to $180 and back. Now we appear to be headed into the fourth interval.

So let's suppose that a certain interval will prevail over the next several years. What would be that range. Here's my totally baseless guess.

Fourth, $370 to $520.

I think there is a tremendous amount of attention on the $420, but that is too close to $370 to hold as an upper limit. We may get hung up at $420 for a while, but the real hype train needs much more range to roam. $470 could be a upper limit, but on a relative scale the range from $370 to $470 is really not that compelling. Musk's award is linked to a market cap of $100B or about $554/sh. So that will be a major battle with shorts. So I think $570 is too high for the fourth interval. So spitting the difference $520 seems about right and has some symbolic resonance with $420.

So there you go. Look for Tesla to be range bound between $370 and $520 for several years. The exciting part is that we could see the high $520 marked very quickly. Perhaps within 6 months.

Enjoy the ride!

Maybe so... But if these steps up in share price are related to milestones of revenue, free cash flow, or successful product launches - then I would expect the next steps in share price climbs to progress faster now. Plus the looming Era of Fat Profits will truly be a game changer. The company is growing exponentially. Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

just wondering, what does everyone consider a "luxury" SUV to be in the electric era?

The below article details the EQC as going to cost $67,900 (whenever it eventually gets released in US), and notes it has 220 miles EPA range. It then mentions the Kia Niro is $38,000 and has a range of 239 miles, but states "The Niro is not a luxury vehicle though. The EQC is a luxury SUV, hence the greater cost."

Now I know people will yabba on about "premium interior" etc as defining a luxury SUV, but surely in the EV era where range is so different across various models, surely one would expect a "luxury" EV to be the one with MORE range than the "not a luxury vehicle" at $30k less - right?

(note there is no mention of the model Y in the article - which has far superior range at 300 miles starting at $48k)

Mercedes-Benz EQC 400 To Start At $67,900 | CleanTechnica

 

[CorneliusXX]

Mercedes to slash its iconic AMG models:

Report: Mercedes-AMG range could be cut by 75 percent in 2020

The paper says that several Mercedes dealerships expect a production cutback as dramatic as 75 percent in response to a need to bring down its CO2 average from 138g/km to 100g/km. AMG models would be the target of such a cutback effort, the Financial Times notes, due to the fact that their emissions are the highest of the models in Mercedes' lineup; drastically shrinking their availability could bring down the fleet CO2 average.

Companies reduce pollution as soon as there is a price on it. Go figure?

 

[MC3OZ]

Where is the price going next? I don't know, but here's a baseless conjecture.

Tesla tends to trade in a wide interval for several years before breaking into the next interval.

First, $20 to $36.
Second, $190 to $270
Third, $270 to $370
Fourth, $370 to ???

There was a transition from first interval to second. Likewise from the third to fourth, we've had a dal segno to $180 and back. Now we appear to be headed into the fourth interval.

So let's suppose that a certain interval will prevail over the next several years. What would be that range. Here's my totally baseless guess.

Fourth, $370 to $520.

I think there is a tremendous amount of attention on the $420, but that is too close to $370 to hold as an upper limit. We may get hung up at $420 for a while, but the real hype train needs much more range to roam. $470 could be a upper limit, but on a relative scale the range from $370 to $470 is really not that compelling. Musk's award is linked to a market cap of $100B or about $554/sh. So that will be a major battle with shorts. So I think $570 is too high for the fourth interval. So spitting the difference $520 seems about right and has some symbolic resonance with $420.

So there you go. Look for Tesla to be range bound between $370 and $520 for several years. The exciting part is that we could see the high $520 marked very quickly. Perhaps within 6 months.

Enjoy the ride!

If it follows a mathematical repeating digits pattern next step is:370 to 490, followed by 620 to 636?