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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I don't think delivering "Feature Complete FSD" will cause Tesla to fully recognize all FSD revenue. They will withhold some of it for further improvements and regulatory approval. I would be very surprised if they fully recognized all FSD at that point.
Musk had some interesting things to say about their FSD program. When an analyst stated he thought FSD was so important that Tesla might want to acquire another company in the field, Musk wanted to slap the guy. He said something like "OK, sure, tell us who we should acquire". When the analyst didn't have an answer, Musk flatly stated something to the effect that they were not aware of anyone out there that was capable of accelerating their program.
Musk implied the FSD team had been working on the foundational base of their FSD platform, making improvements that might not be immediately apparent to users right away but that would further the development. He thought this all might come together in a few more months in the form of feature-complete FSD (that is not ready for regulatory approval). I interpreted that to mean by the end of summer/early fall. There is no doubt this is a bigger challenge than most of the AI and Autonomy experts originally predicted. It appears Musk's team is restructuring its foundation to make further development more productive.
Look for a downgrade tomorrow based on missed opportunity to integrate Starlink.
Yeah, I think Elon likes the new sandbagging persona. It's actually got pretty easy... no one would believe the whole truth anyway, ha ha
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Who should we acquire? Battery or autonomous company?
Analyst "How about paying down debt?"
Elon "Doing a capital raise to pay down debt is pretty stupid."
Next
You sound like you joined today, where have you been, since Maxwell acquisition ?
Dry Electrodes
This is key, what we heard about their ability to ramp cell, module and pack production as well as new technology with 400mi range and I predict even more than that will be from what it sounds next level and distance Tesla from all other by a big margin.
He did sell the battery & drive train day a few times and everybody who did dig into that matter knows its the key to substantial growth as well as true dominance in the industry. Right now Tesla is by a factor 2 more advanced than Porsche but imagine if its 3 or more.
Battery & drive train day as well as the technology he pointed to end of this year may be a major game changer.
At that point in time it will be very hard for other automakers to sell BEVs to informed consumers.
mars_or_bust
Member
Tommorow then could be the day that a 121 billion valuation happens (SP 671 I think)
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I don't think they stockprice moved even half a percent during the call. Must be a first.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Lol at all that selling at the end of regular hours to get SP down to 580
Yeah, I LOLed at that too. Cost them at least two million shares to pull off that -$10 stunt at close.
They wasted about $138m with that poorly timed bear raid or derisking ...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Elon: "I think some of the Retail Investors have put together the puzzle (on battery tech)"
Translation: "TMC Rules; Analysts Drools".
Word to your Mother.
Cheers!
Translation: "TMC Rules; Analysts Drools".
Word to your Mother.
Cheers!
It would be nice if they do a stock split
It is far better to setup Q1 with moderate expectations, the chance of a surprise on the downside is then very low and a surprise on the upside is more likely...
Indeed, those analysts begging for capital raises were behaving more like salesmen for the investment banking sides of their companies.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
This is wrong. I was looking at Q4 '18. Here is the corrected one.
The big difference I see compared to my model are
- Higher SGA +110M. A lot of this is stock based comp (+65M)
- Subsidiary loss of $27M
- Non-Lease Auto margin higher 0.7% compared to Q3.
- S/X ASP improved by $10k compared to Q3 to $102k, assuming $50k Model 3 ASP
Resulting in 220M higher revenue but $145M lesser profit.
- Higher SGA +110M. A lot of this is stock based comp (+65M)
- Subsidiary loss of $27M
- Non-Lease Auto margin higher 0.7% compared to Q3.
- S/X ASP improved by $10k compared to Q3 to $102k, assuming $50k Model 3 ASP
Resulting in 220M higher revenue but $145M lesser profit.
X Fan
Active Member
Did I hear wrong or did Elon suggest Plaid comes out at end of year on this call?
My stake in Tesla isn’t nearly what some on here is, and I was nervous of how today would go. I’ve been long Tesla for a while, I’ll be adding a lot more on the next dip. Sounds like battery day is going to really solidify their leading position.
They are getting shut out and have histories of horrible predictions. Not a good look.
I swear to God those triple-niners at ARK are the only ones I’m going to listen to. I hope Tasha and Cathie are well-compensated for their work.
anthonyj
Stonks
It’s being pinned by a big whale to trigger forced margarine calls tomorrow AM
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