Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

If you feel you can take a whole lot of anti Tesla misinformation this idiot can supply it, in a super annoying manner. 1.8 million subscribers

 

[Heart Land]

Insight of the day. Tesla restrains their maximum production capability of the Model 3 due to two constraints leading to lowered goals of Model 3 production. First, their Gigafactory total output is maximized with the current equipment installed. Installing further machinery will be a sunk cost as all the ovens, space use etc will be deemed useless and have to be written off in say 1 years time when the new process comes into play. Even if it would look decently good on the books in the coming year with further incremental installation, the next write-off would severely affect their profit and also be a generally bad investment decision.

As such there is currently no reason to further invest in production of more model 3's as they are not really able to support it from the Gigafactory, instead the sound decision is to continue with the current capacity in the Gigafactory for the coming year or so, while also continue importing batteries for the Model S/X. This could possibly be done while investing capacity to start on building the lines for the Model Y and other products instead in that space, utilizing the capital better.

More uncertain conclusion. While some further production of the Model 3 will probably be supported with the smaller module the general excess would probably be utilized in storage products with or without purchasing batteries from others. Purchasing batteries to support the cheaper model 3 is generally not viable from a gross profit standpoint.

Further more general economic uncertainty does not make the gamble worth it to still expand model 3 production capability. The above is the most economically sustainable and sound way of moving forward in the year to come.

Any thoughts?

This is an interesting insight. Perhaps Elon’s guidance of only 7k M3/wk by end of year has something to do with postponing battery cell production expansion plans until the new process is implemented, as you suggested. I guess we will eventually find out.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The Case For Tesla's "Business Miracle" | Loup Ventures. Taken from another friends
's post elsewhere: Bezos quote sounds like he is talking about Tesla:
Bezos described why AWS is a success:

“And then something – then a business miracle happened. This never happens. This is, like, the greatest piece of business luck in the history of business, so far as I know. We faced no likeminded competition for seven years. It’s unbelievable

Well, it does happen elsewhere. That’s why I became modestly wealthy. My company had no meaningful competition for at around 7 years. However AWS had a bigger addressable market (in dollar terms).

So, contra Bezos, it can and does happen. I agree that Tesla is in a similar situation. They have little competition with their charging network in the US (worldwide, it is a different story), and they have always had the cheapest battery supply, and now look to make that an even bigger advantage. Tesla may very well have no meaningful competition for a while yet (and it’s been 6 years and counting so far, 11 if you include the Roadster). This is assuming you see EVs as a market unto themselves. In reality, Tesla competes with all ICEs.

 

[gene]

If you feel you can take a whole lot of anti Tesla misinformation this idiot can supply it, in a super annoying manner. 1.8 million subscribers

Is he drunk?

 

[jerry33]

I'm wondering if that's a problem of the car of a problem of car dealers: on the one hand the ePace vs. iPace is of course not helping the iPace, then you have the lack of charging infrastructure etc.

On the other hand I can imagine that dealing with the dealership network might be a royal pain.

Besides the dealer network, isn't Jaguar's real problem their quality reputation? I've know quite a few people with Jags, and all of them said something like ten days in the shop for every one day's driving. Now I'm sure that's exaggerated, but I'm also sure it felt like that to the owners.

 

[bzbee]

* 2170s really aren't any meaningful amount more energy dense than 18650s. They pack them a bit more dense in the packs, though. He notes that they appear to have the same chemistry.
* Lots of elaboration on why capacitors in EVs are a total nonstarter, including a description of a project where he spent $10k to add a supercapacitor bank to an EV and it actually slowed the car down.
* A great deal of description about how awesome dry electrode tech is, first focused on how bad current solvent tech is (how toxic and flammable the solvent is, how massive the equipment to remove it is, etc), and a comparison to how small and simple the equipment for the dry electrode tech is.
* Talked some about Maxwell's capacity and power improvements, and how from reading Maxwell's documents, he gets the impression that Maxwell doesn't even understand why. He believes that he does know why, however. Solvent-based binding reaches into every crevice between active materials and can hinder ion diffusion between cracks, but the melt-binding dry polymer approach acts more like a glue at specific points between particles without interfering with flow between fine channels.
* He did a simulated 160kW Supercharge cycle on a 2170 and showed how easily it handled it. He also did a 0,25C discharge cycle, with a voltage graph included.
* He really thinks the Model 3 LR pack should be called a 71kWh pack. You can call it more if you base your measurement around deeper discharge cycles (which he considers unrealistically deep) or slower discharge (0,1C vs. 0,25C), but again he considers that unrealistically slow.
* He goes a lot into how cell capacity generally varies a lot depending on discharge rate... but how the Maxwell approach does not experience this effect much.

This is what I remember off the top of my head.

I am no electrical/chemical engineer, but really enjoyed his explanation on Tesla buying Maxwell... might be worth 10min.
Jack can be entertaining, in small portions.

 

[lklundin]

BTW, the other day people here were complaining about user @tesla_truth on Twitter using the name "Steve Jobs", about how that was distasteful. I just found out... that's actually his real name. He was actually suspended by Twitter a couple months back, then reinstated after he proved his identity.

It sounds very strange (but not unbelievable) what Twitter suspended the account and then reactivated it - allowing as avatar the deceased Steve Job's photo.

So I still find it distasteful and problematic.

 

[lklundin]

Is he drunk?

Just a car guy who likes to criticize, by the looks of his uploads.

 

[SebastianR]

Weekend OT...

Besides the dealer network, isn't Jaguar's real problem their quality reputation? I've know quite a few people with Jags, and all of them said something like ten days in the shop for every one day's driving. Now I'm sure that's exaggerated, but I'm also sure it felt like that to the owners.

Hehe - indeed, my uncle has two Jags: an original E-Type and a contemporary one. He claims the E-Type is like a savings box: you put in money and money and money and occasionally there is a gearbox, a clutch or a transmission falling out from it.
The modern one is the beloved car of his spouse: he just got a call from the dealer that it is not economical to maintain/repair the car as the repairs exceeded the residual value of the car. However, the spouse loves it and my uncle claims that other people's spouses are even more expensive - so both of the Jags stay...

 

[KarenRei]

Weekend OT...



Hehe - indeed, my uncle has two Jags: an original E-Type and a contemporary one. He claims the E-Type is like a savings box: you put in money and money and money and occasionally there is a gearbox, a clutch or a transmission falling out from it.
The modern one is the beloved car of his spouse: he just got a call from the dealer that it is not economical to maintain/repair the car as the repairs exceeded the residual value of the car. However, the spouse loves it and my uncle claims that other people's spouses are even more expensive - so both of the Jags stay...

I've heard the saying that you're supposed to buy two Jags, so you always have one to drive while the other is in the shop

 

[Johann Koeber]

New member here, great forum!
So been thinking about shorting some of the major automakers. With put options to the next year or so. Thoughts?

I like the general idea, but it might take (much) longer than that to make money from puts.

How about being long TSLA? I find the result more predictable.

 

[TNEVol]

My

I've heard the saying that you're supposed to buy two Jags, so you always have one to drive while the other is in the shop

1971 XKE is where I learned that Lucas is the "Price of Darkness"

 

[JRP3]

So I still find it distasteful and problematic.

There are so many more actual problems to be upset about than this.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It was even discussed here last week when Morgan Stanley caused the stock to plunge several points just by reiterating that it had already been brought up and that they were taking it seriously:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Still trying to find a source for the exact number of "15%", but I've seen it brought up in the past re: the EU retaliation.

I hope you can find a reliable source, because in my book Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg are - when it concerns Tesla - anti-sources.

 

[Krugerrand]

Agreed, but China doesn't have the legacy OEM's that Germany has.

Legacy OEMs are about to be non-Legacy; either changed or dead. They get to pick. Tesla won’t want anything to do with what comes with *legacy*.

 

[EVNow]

BTW, the other day people here were complaining about user @tesla_truth on Twitter using the name "Steve Jobs", about how that was distasteful. I just found out... that's actually his real name. He was actually suspended by Twitter a couple months back, then reinstated after he proved his identity.

Surely not his real photo. Also doesn't make it clear in his bio that he is not connected in anyway with the famous Steve Jobs.

 

[KarenRei]

Surely not his real photo. Also doesn't make it clear in his bio that he is not connected in anyway with the famous Steve Jobs.

Yeah, I was told that he finds the coincidence amusing.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

My

1971 XKE is where I learned that Lucas is the "Price of Darkness"

I rebuilt 2 Triumph TR6s. I too know all about good ole Lucas electronics!

Dan

 

[Words of HABIT]

OT Data Point:
Spent 2 hours on the Greater Toronto (Ontario, Canada) 400 series highways today.
Good news: saw 18 M3, 18 MS and 15 MX for a total of 51 Teslas.
Bad news: saw +-36,000 ICE, and only a handful of other BEV during the same drive.
Conclusion: We need more Teslas and other BEVs on our roads.
Potential of all BEVs is gargantuan.

 

[generalenthu]

Yes, when I did a gigafactory tour before production went live, I saw ovens like this there. I would also guess that this process step is the number one source of yield variability among cells. I would guess the dry process is more reproducible.

Were public ever allowed into Panasonic areas? Didn't think that happened.