For ones with long horizon: 401k contributions to the max over the next 3 months.
Everything is on sale, humanity will survive
Everything is on sale, humanity will survive
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Haven't been here in a while but I'm sure there's panic . If you would have told me a year ago that the world markets would be in free fall and there's a pandemic happening that will likely result in recession for most of 2020.......and Tesla would be at 630....I would have told you you're nuts.
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mact3333
Member
yes Corona got things going, then inevitable recession took it down another big notch...charts were broken over a week ago...we were testing the intermediate term levels today and as expected, we sliced through that too with Who pandemic news....we may test the circuit breaker once again tonight will be close...the Trump news tonight didn't do anything that was going happen anyway when the charts broke.
I have been through early 2000's...2008-->2009...and now Corona...it does get easier and easier to trade these types if mat's cause I suppose for better or worse guys like be do better during high volatility times, up or down.
Words of advice...if you are not agile and you have held all longs until now you might as well wait it out for long run...the world isn't going to end...life will go on and the economy will bounce back.
As I have been saying for days on here, the real test comes at Nasdaq 7300-7400...if we hold this level we can still be in a very longterm bull...if it doesn't hold I would fully expect a full 50-66% retrace from the highs....if this level doesn't hold, lives will change...I am not saying this be over dramatic or fear mongering, just stating a fact...the people who will hate my post are the ones who are not prepared or not willing to prepare or just against my post based on fear itself....I have seen this before.
If we dont hold Naz 7300 , things will profoundly change for : (and some predictions).
1. Treasury yields so low over past decade many financial institutions and HF's were forced into risk...HF's were leveraged to the highest levels ever seen just a few weeks ago...this will need to be unwound and deleveraged...acts to minimize risk will be obvious over the next few weeks....HF's on the verge now.
2. pension(esp states) funds are in big trouble...they were big enough trouble over past decade that they were taking huge risks with HF's and private equity players to get the yield as they were already underfunded...more than half of state pensions underfunded significantly and states like KY are underfunded by 70%!...this will get unwound too...the company/entity that guarantees pensions(pension version of FDIC) is severely underfunded and projected at a 95% chance to go bankrupt within next 3-5 years...states will significantly reduce defined payments...the teachers/cops/firemen will be saying "its in writing you can't take away my pension" but yet they can read the fine print.
3. automation and AI will continue on over the next decade..at least 20M people will either lose their jobs and be underemployed due to automation...universal basic income will be a very very hot topic soon...Yang had it right...when you see the truck drivers blocking freeways as Tesla semi's are driverless you will now what I am talking about.
Just know when things look the bleakest and most hopeless, that's when you have to start buying again...do exactly opposite of what your mind is telling you...it is very reasonable to take small modest long positions around Naz 7300 and if mkts recover from there start adding...if that level doesn't hold, then if its me, I am selling and taking my small losses and regrouping and waiting for 50% retrace form the top before buying for long term and holding...at this point we will either recover or society will change forever(ok, forever is abit dramatic but you get the point).
Just like Apple did in 2009, Tesla will come of this well when its finally over(may be this week or months from now)....the reasons why TSLA went up 5 fold over past 6 months hasn't changed...may be some bumps in the road, but they will dominate the future....they are the new apple.
I have been through early 2000's...2008-->2009...and now Corona...it does get easier and easier to trade these types if mat's cause I suppose for better or worse guys like be do better during high volatility times, up or down.
Words of advice...if you are not agile and you have held all longs until now you might as well wait it out for long run...the world isn't going to end...life will go on and the economy will bounce back.
As I have been saying for days on here, the real test comes at Nasdaq 7300-7400...if we hold this level we can still be in a very longterm bull...if it doesn't hold I would fully expect a full 50-66% retrace from the highs....if this level doesn't hold, lives will change...I am not saying this be over dramatic or fear mongering, just stating a fact...the people who will hate my post are the ones who are not prepared or not willing to prepare or just against my post based on fear itself....I have seen this before.
If we dont hold Naz 7300 , things will profoundly change for : (and some predictions).
1. Treasury yields so low over past decade many financial institutions and HF's were forced into risk...HF's were leveraged to the highest levels ever seen just a few weeks ago...this will need to be unwound and deleveraged...acts to minimize risk will be obvious over the next few weeks....HF's on the verge now.
2. pension(esp states) funds are in big trouble...they were big enough trouble over past decade that they were taking huge risks with HF's and private equity players to get the yield as they were already underfunded...more than half of state pensions underfunded significantly and states like KY are underfunded by 70%!...this will get unwound too...the company/entity that guarantees pensions(pension version of FDIC) is severely underfunded and projected at a 95% chance to go bankrupt within next 3-5 years...states will significantly reduce defined payments...the teachers/cops/firemen will be saying "its in writing you can't take away my pension" but yet they can read the fine print.
3. automation and AI will continue on over the next decade..at least 20M people will either lose their jobs and be underemployed due to automation...universal basic income will be a very very hot topic soon...Yang had it right...when you see the truck drivers blocking freeways as Tesla semi's are driverless you will now what I am talking about.
Just know when things look the bleakest and most hopeless, that's when you have to start buying again...do exactly opposite of what your mind is telling you...it is very reasonable to take small modest long positions around Naz 7300 and if mkts recover from there start adding...if that level doesn't hold, then if its me, I am selling and taking my small losses and regrouping and waiting for 50% retrace form the top before buying for long term and holding...at this point we will either recover or society will change forever(ok, forever is abit dramatic but you get the point).
Just like Apple did in 2009, Tesla will come of this well when its finally over(may be this week or months from now)....the reasons why TSLA went up 5 fold over past 6 months hasn't changed...may be some bumps in the road, but they will dominate the future....they are the new apple.
I’ve been monitoring SPY, but I have the same sentiment watching the S&P.. expecting it to hit 2,500.. if it holds, great. But if not could go all the way down to 2,000. Either way buying TSLA in tranches and shorting SPY short term otw down.
Stupidly, I keep track of our portfolio daily and compare to the average of the three relevant indices. 60++ percent TSLA. We were better today by 3.5 percentage points, though in negative territory. TSLA is often a hedge for us this year.
Sodium difluorophosphate is the cobalt free chemistry that Tesla will likely produce themselves using a NMC811 cathode. They may or may not sub these out to others. I'm thinking they won't sub it out and LG and CATL will produce a different chemistry for their MIC models only or maybe just for Powerwall batteries. But I'm no battery expert so take this FWIW. We'll have to wait until battery day to find out for sure, if they even give us all the details at that time.
For ones with long horizon: 401k contributions to the max over the next 3 months.
Everything is on sale, humanity will survive
This is where my head is at right now. I'm 38 and plan to work another 15-20 years. I'm in the medical field, so not really worried about any long term work stoppage for myself. I may have to self-quarantine for 14 days at some point but then should be right back at it. All my investments are long holds. So I've been steadily buying with my cash reserves. If the markets haven't recovered 20 years from now, then whoops. But I would assume that means the world is a different place altogether.
Not planning to buy more TSLA right now because the price jump there means I'm already pretty heavily invested, but not planning to sell TSLA either. Just buying broad index funds.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I notice that all my stock were down today, but Tesla was down by the least amount. I get the sense that in the face of this market sell off, there are buyers preferentially snapping up Tesla. It think this says a lot about $600 being strong support for the stock.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Model Y deliveries start Friday! This should help keep TSLA afloat tomorrow.
https://electrek.co/2020/03/11/tesla-model-y-confirmed-deliveries-this-weekend/
https://electrek.co/2020/03/11/tesla-model-y-confirmed-deliveries-this-weekend/
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
HAHA.
Call me nuts.
It's official, I am a time traveler.
But really, it's just luck.
I secretly wish the final 2020 recession part gets confirmed. But my portfolio is hurting so much and would be devastating if it does come true.
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Ameliorate
Member
It would be a relief of sorts if only to know it's not looming over us while we just invest in TSLA with clear skies for the easiest 10 years of our lives.
I’ve been working non-stop for the past week and I just came up for air. Whew! I noticed that
Bulgaria just got their first supercharging station!
So that’s pretty cool.
what else is going on?
Bulgaria just got their first supercharging station!
So that’s pretty cool.
what else is going on?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
S&P futures bounced from 2,600 a few hours ago and are around 2,630 now - I wouldn't expect 2,500 to hold, we are still far away from Fmax (maximum fear) in the U.S. I'm afraid, and the late response is very problematic with fast exponential outbreaks, because every day of delay increases the base-load of the health care system by 20-30% ... and the Trump administration still hasn't acted on implementing effective containment and tracking efforts.
The travel ban to the EU is a double whammy dumb decision: not only is it a near-irrelevant channel of transmission now that the outbreak is in the U.S. already, but it also brings a lot of business activities to a screeching halt and is hindering the medical response and supplies as well.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
After-action Report: Wed, Mar 11, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)
Comment: "The Mirror has Two Faces"
VWAP: $634.94
Volume: 13,444,309
Traded: $8,536,311,801.37 ($8.54 B)
Closing SP / VWAP: 99.98%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Volume: 13,444,309
Traded: $8,536,311,801.37 ($8.54 B)
Closing SP / VWAP: 99.98%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Comment: "The Mirror has Two Faces"
On Lang & Schwarz TSLA is now trading at 532€ (about 597$), Frankfurt about to open.
Tesla Inc. Aktie | Aktienkurs | Chart | A1CX3T | US88160R1014
PS. At Frankfurt now: 525€
Tesla Inc. Aktie | Aktienkurs | Chart | A1CX3T | US88160R1014
PS. At Frankfurt now: 525€
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588$ in premarket. Im still 100% cash, plan to start buying when/if we dip bellow 500.
Well if that is the case you may never become a TSLA holder. I will not be sad.
If you have a look at the situation today it seems more than likely that there is more room to drop. The spread in Europe is escalating, and I based on what's being reported in the US it seems that it's the same way there.
If you have a look at the measures Italy have taken you might have a good idea of what's coming in several countries. US banning all travel from Europe also seems like an extreme action.
All these actions is bound to impact the economy even more. I can't imagine that all of these measures and their consequences for the economy have been seen yet.
So yes, I expect to be able to buy bellow 500$ in the near feature. I see no reason to be rude even if its not what you want to hear.
Seems like once you claim that the stock will fall some people here gets really upset. I should be possible to discuss the possibility of future drops as well, even if we all agree on that the future for Tesla looks great.
That is OK, for Plan A... but do you have a Plan B?
Short term I am making no predictions, except that we will know the bottom when we see it in the rear view mirror...
I'm all for everyone following their own strategy, that is when markets function best, so you don't necessarily need Plan B, I just don't share your conviction in Plan A, but it is your plan.
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