Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jschwefel]

Seems there are two key questions to consider: (1) does the demand for Tesla products continue and/or grow, and (2) can Tesla match capacity to meet demand?

With respect to the first, I’m guessing demand continues to grow for Tesla products (autos and energy) largely because both businesses are still really small in comparison to the markets they serve, AND their products are unique and highly desirable. Yes, COVID-19 will hurt a lot of companies and industries across the board, including automotive, but Tesla has a number of demand levers they could pull if they needed to. So far I’m not seeing them use any demand levers.

As for the second, Tesla is still building capacity, both in Germany and Shanghai. The looming shutdown at Fremont and the possibility of GF1 closing (at least the Panasonic side) are a bit concerning, but I’m guessing these are just bumps in the road.

Obviously, this is simple supply and demand, but I’ll continue to watch for signs on both in the days, weeks and months ahead. In the meantime, I’m long and going longer until something relative to (1) or (2) tells me not to.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'd rather trust @Fact Checking and @KarenRei than some mods to decide what content is relevant to TSLA investing, thank you very much.

 

[ggr]

It really is a shame this has gotten out of hand and I would hate to see someone like @KarenRei who writes a lot of highly informative posts, leave this forum. Or @Fact Checking. And it shouldn’t have to happen.

I wasn’t directly involved, but I know what happened. It is not up to me to disperse details, explanations and motivations. But what I can say in general is that moderating this forum, and especially this thread can be a hugely frustrating task. It is difficult to find a balance between keeping it informative and entertaining on the one hand and readable and manageable on the other hand.

With more and more posters joining us (the S curve, brought to you by Tesla) the more and more people have something to say. And if that were all informative that would be great. But unfortunately it is not. Too many people have the tendency to go down the rabbit hole with technical details on a wide range of subjects, many not related to Tesla. It’s meant well, but it produces an avalanche of difficult posts which others have to weed through. Others believe they missed out on a career of being a stand up comedian, so decide to start that career here by serial posting funny or not so funny remarks. Ofcourse this thread needs some entertaining elements too - it shouldn’t be all boring and informative - but if unchecked it would get completely out of hand. And then there’s the people who think this is a chatroom where they can post the most trivial stuff that really nobody but themselves is interested in.

That is why moderating is necessary, why mods have to keep the thread on track. They issue guidance (which has to be repeated constantly, as memories seem to last just one day here), delete and move excessive posts, and create dedicated threads for OT stuff and for subjects that threaten to take over the main thread. Without it there would be, instead of 4-5 pages, 20-30 pages to sift through in the morning or after having been offline for a few hours. All informative posts that help us with our investing would be drowned out and almost impossible to find.

And yes, the coronavirus is extremely important to Tesla and to investing. And yes, important developments deserve a place in the main thread! But the problem is that a lot of people then start posting trivial stuff about the subject too, which causes posts like these take over the Tesla investing thread: ‘Germany not exporting masks’, ‘A doctor’s tale from Italy’, ‘This university claims it can start vaccine trials in 2 months’ time’, ‘Here’s how you can make your own mask out of a ketchup bottle’ and ‘I can no longer go to my favourite pub’.

All of it - well, most of it - very informative, but too far detached from Tesla and investing. Which is why the coronavirus thread was created. And I get it why people feel the need of posting about the virus in the main thread, and sometimes it does belong there. But it immediately results in replies and discussions that do not belong there. And before you know it things get out of hand. Let it go unchecked and it becomes a nightmare, where all really valuable posts get swamped. Which is why mods have to be strict.

Finding the right tone in moderating is difficult, especially when directives are constantly being ignored and the (voluntary) task becomes frustrating. We are all human too. I know it can also be frustrating to be asked or, after several requests, be warned to stop posting OT stuff (and trust me, the most appreciated posters get a lot more leeway). Or when posts get moved or deleted. But you need to swallow that pride, for the greater good of the thread. Neroden couldn’t. I hope that others can. Because their posts are highly appreciated. Their presence is badly needed.

Having said that: I’ve decided to take a step back from moderating. If I happen to stumble upon a troll I will vape him. But I will no longer delete or move posts that are OT or belong somewhere else. On one hand it is for personal reasons (40% of the turnover of my company is in Italy and it’s all hands on deck to solve issues with postal deliveries), but more important is that I find the task too frustrating, as the decisions I make are always wrong for 50% of posters. It’s not worth it. I hope the other mods, who I know share the same frustration, don’t throw the towel or soon this thread will become a zoo.

Stay healthy.

I agree with what RSF has said. I went one step further, and have resigned from moderation. I tried stepping back around last Christmas, as he is doing, but it didn't work for me.

 

[Davmal]

Utterly ridiculous moderating to drive Karen Rei and Fact Checking off this forum. I am absolutely outraged. The amount of time and effort those two have put in here with their hugely informative posts is remarkable. Their posts here have for me personally and I am sure many others reading made me make much wiser investment decisions.

Whoever the mod in question is should give up their position as moderator over this debacle.

 

[goinfraftw]

As someone that's been lurking here for 6-7 years and posting for 3+ ...

To lose steadfast TSLA informative supporters and investors as KarenRei and "Fact Checking" loses credibility for this forum. There's been just an absolute ton of hedging going on for many years after the 2013-2014 run-up and it was brutal. What kept me in TSLA was this forum and I'm glad to be a part of it with tremendously informative and helpful people such as these two.

The Mods do a great job of managing the quality of the threads and, probably, deal with things that we don't really know about due to the nature of the volatility of this company/investment and this forum's open nature as well. I'm sure there's some posters here that have gone to a private slack channel that's not available to us or have their own backchannels, but I think it's important to have everyone, aforementioned, to actually keep this community going.

The year just started. Paris Climate Accord just started. The net affects of climate change have just started.

 

[AlMc]

It really is a shame this has gotten out of hand and I would hate to see someone like @KarenRei who writes a lot of highly informative posts, leave this forum. Or @Fact Checking. And it shouldn’t have to happen.

I wasn’t directly involved, but I know what happened. It is not up to me to disperse details, explanations and motivations. But what I can say in general is that moderating this forum, and especially this thread can be a hugely frustrating task. It is difficult to find a balance between keeping it informative and entertaining on the one hand and readable and manageable on the other hand.

With more and more posters joining us (the S curve, brought to you by Tesla) the more and more people have something to say. And if that were all informative that would be great. But unfortunately it is not. Too many people have the tendency to go down the rabbit hole with technical details on a wide range of subjects, many not related to Tesla. It’s meant well, but it produces an avalanche of difficult posts which others have to weed through. Others believe they missed out on a career of being a stand up comedian, so decide to start that career here by serial posting funny or not so funny remarks. Ofcourse this thread needs some entertaining elements too - it shouldn’t be all boring and informative - but if unchecked it would get completely out of hand. And then there’s the people who think this is a chatroom where they can post the most trivial stuff that really nobody but themselves is interested in.

That is why moderating is necessary, why mods have to keep the thread on track. They issue guidance (which has to be repeated constantly, as memories seem to last just one day here), delete and move excessive posts, and create dedicated threads for OT stuff and for subjects that threaten to take over the main thread. Without it there would be, instead of 4-5 pages, 20-30 pages to sift through in the morning or after having been offline for a few hours. All informative posts that help us with our investing would be drowned out and almost impossible to find.

And yes, the coronavirus is extremely important to Tesla and to investing. And yes, important developments deserve a place in the main thread! But the problem is that a lot of people then start posting trivial stuff about the subject too, which causes posts like these take over the Tesla investing thread: ‘Germany not exporting masks’, ‘A doctor’s tale from Italy’, ‘This university claims it can start vaccine trials in 2 months’ time’, ‘Here’s how you can make your own mask out of a ketchup bottle’ and ‘I can no longer go to my favourite pub’.

All of it - well, most of it - very informative, but too far detached from Tesla and investing. Which is why the coronavirus thread was created. And I get it why people feel the need of posting about the virus in the main thread, and sometimes it does belong there. But it immediately results in replies and discussions that do not belong there. And before you know it things get out of hand. Let it go unchecked and it becomes a nightmare, where all really valuable posts get swamped. Which is why mods have to be strict.

Finding the right tone in moderating is difficult, especially when directives are constantly being ignored and the (voluntary) task becomes frustrating. We are all human too. I know it can also be frustrating to be asked or, after several requests, be warned to stop posting OT stuff (and trust me, the most appreciated posters get a lot more leeway). Or when posts get moved or deleted. But you need to swallow that pride, for the greater good of the thread. Neroden couldn’t. I hope that others can. Because their posts are highly appreciated. Their presence is badly needed.

Having said that: I’ve decided to take a step back from moderating. If I happen to stumble upon a troll I will vape him. But I will no longer delete or move posts that are OT or belong somewhere else. On one hand it is for personal reasons (40% of the turnover of my company is in Italy and it’s all hands on deck to solve issues with postal deliveries), but more important is that I find the task too frustrating, as the decisions I make are always wrong for 50% of posters. It’s not worth it. I hope the other mods, who I know share the same frustration, don’t throw the towel or soon this thread will become a zoo.

Stay healthy.

Yes, a thankless job. Many good posters/moderators have left. (ex: Bonnie and Nigel ) for similar reasons.

Be well.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'd rather trust @Fact Checking and @KarenRei than some mods to decide what content is relevant to TSLA investing, thank you very much.

Don't *sugar* on the mods. They donate their time to do a relatively thankless job.

If you'd be so much better at it why don't you become a mod.

 

[dgodfrey]

@Fact Checking / @KarenRei could you perhaps name a community tool/forum/discord of your choice to follow your posts? DM is fine too.

The mods have every right to do as they please.

Many of us invested all their life savings into TSLA. This matters too much. We need your posts.

She may not see your request.
Nafnlaus (@enn_nafnlaus) | Twitter
Can't help with Fact Checker, wish I could, believe me.
Karen is/was a member at:
Tesla Owners Online

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Make Karen Rei a mod.

And stop over moderating this specific thread. This is kind of as I see it the "daily chat" thread. Change the name if you need too.

 

[aronth5]

Yes, there are a few multi-generational dealers. I believe they are mainly in small towns. As far as I can tell most cars are sold by large organizations with many dealerships for various car brands. Some of them span multiple states (and I suppose some mega-dealers are multi-generational). They don't fear the auto manufacturers in the least because no one manufacturer is vital to their business. What they fear is the lack of service revenue that EVs provide.

Maybe in Texas but you'll find a disparity from state to state. In Mass for example many if not most dealers are multi-generational. I do agree though that the lack of service revenue is their greatest concern as well it should be. This bodes well for Tesla and their selling & service approach. The other question that is not clear to me is how the manufacturers and dealers will leverage the OTA upgrades that will drive added revenue streams and who will charge for them? In Tesla's business model that's an easy answer.

 

[JRP3]

Having said that: I’ve decided to take a step back from moderating. If I happen to stumble upon a troll I will vape him. But I will no longer delete or move posts that are OT or belong somewhere else.

This really should be the default position for all moderation. Less is more, and less means less stress for the mods. So what if at times the thread becomes a bit more cluttered. Keep the trolls out and the community will work out the rest.

 

[Opus BC fan]

We are all under significant stress right now. I value all of you here on this forum and thread (mods and members). I will continue to check this forum daily. I hope to see people return. I hope that all stay safe.

 

[Navin]

While we get this sorted out. Mods - pls feel
Free to temporarily ban any short seller that comes on here to try to put gasoline on the issues here to flame chaos. They win in situations like this - let’s not let them.

 

[InDaClub]

I nominate @KarenRei and @Fact Checking as mods.

 

[Krugerrand]

ID3 it's definetly not a compliance car and if it would'nt sell a lot in US is because no hatchback of that size are best-sellers in US. And whether they will loose money or not, is only relevant on the long-term project VW is involved with EV.
That's simply an idle chat on the legacy car company that is risking the most to accelerate the EV transition....

Tesla world car project, if the mission is popularizing EVs, is of utmost importance as @Artful Dodger already pointed out.
And if EU market is of any importance, the size and features of the World class Tesla/ID3, are the EU best sellers.

To give you a clue, the 10 best sellers cars of EU are in the two class of VW Golf and Toyota Yaris size, that we call "C" and "B" segment, plus the related SUV version.

Focus2move| Europe best selling cars 2019 - The top 100 ranking

For your knowledge, The Model 3 SR+ in EU starts about 53,000$ - 49500Eur and the AWD LR starts at 62,000$. At those prices they are luxury items for the fews, twice the price and more than the best sellers of the "C" segment and three times theprice of a "B" segment, the 2 best-selling segments. And bear in mind that europeans first buy their house, only then fancy cars, very different mentality about consumistic items.

This is to say that Tesla EV mission in EU, and many other countries, if of any interest, will only start to be accomplished with a car a lot cheaper than the cheapest M3... the World Car ID3 sized, infact....

The importance of what has been is far less than the importance of what will be. This is the point that so many people miss repeatedly. It’s a main reason why people/companies are missing, perhaps have already missed, will miss, the boat.

The popularity of a certain type of vehicle is not static, it’s fluid. People are not static, they are fluid. (Don’t get anal retentive on that point — yes, some people resist change, blah, blah, blah, but ultimately the population does change because lots of reasons; don’t make me write a book.)

Point being, what vehicles sell in Europe (or US or wherever) will change, does change, has changed. With the exception of size in certain regions, areas, cities, what makes a vehicle practical, desirable, economically viable, etc... will change, does change, has changed.

And evan as I say that, I can see a world where even size requirements change in Europe and other places. If climate change continues, some day there might be no need for ski racks on cars in Europe or any other thousands of possibilities I could come up with.

One day not that long ago personal computers didn’t exist and somebody much like you proclaimed they were too expensive for the masses to own.

One day not that long ago the idea of never test driving a car, ordering it online sight unseen, virtually signing paperwork for it, and picking it up from an abandoned lot was a ridiculous fantasy imagined by the village idiot.

The relevancy of what sells today is of limited value simply because tomorrow is a different day. Look around. Do you honestly think when this current global crisis is over that we won’t be changed? That we won’t make changes. It was not that long ago there wasn’t a hand sanitizer to be seen outside of a storage closet, a store shelf, a bathroom or an ER room; now it exists in every work space and public location.

The Cat Checking guy is telling you to stop hyper focusing on the trees. Buy as many bloody shares of Tesla as you can and hold onto them until you need the cash. There isn’t any other car-energy-solar-sustainable energy ecosystem entity or group of people who see what the future will be, needs to be AND is capable of executing. Nay, IS executing.

I’ll get back to you on whether or not the ID.3 is a compliance car or not; like when they actually work and people buy them en masse.

@LiveLong&Profit you are exactly correct. I am as serious as I am not. You should lurk less and post more, you’re insightful and balanced. At least on the surface.

 

[Krugerrand]

I knew that Cybertruck did not require press or paint shop. However does it also do away with the castings?

Not possible. You need motor housing castings.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wonder if this potential recession/collapse in the markets will present another factory deal opportunity for Tesla like the Numi one. There could be some big closures and opportunities to get a great price. I believe that converting Fremont/Numi had quite a few headaches, but an existing building might be faster and cheaper.

Possible but as you’ve eluded to, sometimes a clean slate is a better economical choice. Just ask OEMs how it’s going for them to build a compelling EV off ICE platforms and legacy mentalities.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think you're underestimating the power of the dealer lobby in certain states. They will be fighting for survival.

That’s not relevant. It’s far more important to be able to surmise the final outcome. My simulation calculations say that in the end, what we’ve come to know as the automobile dealership network implodes.

 

[Pezpunk]

I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:

Nafnlaus on Twitter

"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."

"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."

"It's a real shame. But it's the way it is."​

Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?

Can anyone here name the single one most important, most discussed topic that "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World" faces in 2020?

I support moderation policy that keeps politics, bickering and trolling out of this thread, and I supported having coronavirus discussions elsewhere until it wasn't clear whether it would become a pandemic - but now we have new facts the situation has changed. Thread moderation, just like Tesla, should be adaptable and flexible.

It's not @KarenRei's fault that the investment world in general has become the "coronavirus thread" ...

Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.

I was also threatened and insulted via PM by a moderator and placed “on probation” .... incredibly, it was not for any posts I made, but for hitting the “disagree” button on a post of theirs.

I seriously considered leaving TFM after that interaction, but decided to suck it up, lots of people are under a lot of stress lately.

but hearing this kind of thing just corroborates my experience. I would be surprised if it wasn’t the same moderator involved in this incident.

 

[Pras]

So the POTUS is now cheering for the Car makers to build ventilators.

Donald J. Trump on Twitter