Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BenPrice]

Point of entry matters if you have a fixed amount and want to maximise your number of shares. I'd rather have 1000 at $450 than 750 at $600. Down the track that could be over $1M in additional wealth generation. The recent volatility makes a lower entry possible but the relative lows will keep rising as the news keeps improving.

I prefer Ark’s model - no reason to simply buy and hold with 100% equity and no reason to sell 100% on a downturn.

Instead, take profit with some when can and re-buy when discounts arrive.

Then I sling options and buy Tesla products with the profits.

 

[JRP3]

This looks promising:

Tesla nears debut of new 400-mile China-made Model 3

Hope this means a 400 mi range MY coming to US at some point...

As has been pointed out it's probably NEDC range.

 

[Skryll]

Those are NEDC miles, not EPA I think.

So assuming it’s 1.44 times the SR range, would that be 360 mile epa range then ?

 

[MP3Mike]

My takeaway is that Tesla FSD is on track, Waymo is having vision challenges, and Uber... not sure b/c of all the laughing. As a result of hearing this, there is every reason to gather all the TSLA shares you can, IMHO. If it drops to below 400 again, I'm stocking up.

1. Waymo's main objective is to sell FSD technology to others (not sure if he meant GM, or Uber types).
2. The large LIDAR on top is still necessary. Smaller doesn't work very well (no details).
3. One problem with LIDAR is dropped frames from interference out there on the streets (and possibly from each other as Elon stated in the past along with his "LIDAR is doomed" msg). This is why they have the added four LIDAR units in the corners.
4. Waymo's 3D models are amazing. (I got the impression this Engineer was solicited for his experience in Camera vision at Tesla.)
5. Something... I forgot. Karen, help me out.
6. All code was written in-house (unheard of) so changes can be very fast. (Sounds just like their internalized vehicle parts strategy.)
7. Differences between MCU 2.5 and 3 are visualization and speed. So 2.5 is missing no other features.
8. No actual headcount provided at Tesla for FSD team, but they came from Apple, Google, etc...
9. There is no sub-team that's separated by country. All data comes to the same team from all countries (and this Engineer claims to have experienced driving in every country, lol.)
10. "They are working on roundabouts which are very difficult. In fact, they are working on everything you'd encounter on a drive from here to San Francisco... everything." (IDK where "here" is)
11. The vehicles perform mini software upgrades between the ones we see. Example was that the shape and size data of traffic lights might be updated for better accuracy.
12. They teach the Neural Net (NN) at first on individual items like Stop signs until that's solid, then they add in lights or street signs as they relate. (Sounds like the system is learning context - how data relates for situational focus and efficiency.)
13. The code rewrite vastly improved efficiency (I think he was referring to V10 and plenty of room to grow.) Tesla will emerge as not just a Bright Star but "The Brightest Star" in the auto industry. (No discussion of Energy, not relevant)
14. This former Tesla Engineer started in Tesla Service and was a real performance car guy w/ loud exhaust etc... Bought an MR after driving all the vehicles in service, wrecked it and Tesla insurance covered it smoothly b/c of camera data. Then he bought a M3P while his best friend kept saying "You got a Tesla just because you work there, huh?" His best friend owns a Tesla now.
15. Service is completely different from any other service model. "The future will eventually be fully automated repair."

@SOULPEDL Can you confirm that 1-4 are talking about Waymo and 6-15 are all talking about Tesla?

 

[vikings123]

That equity raise and accumulation prior is supporting us now.

And the Q1 results validate.

Gonna go to the MOON if Fremont can open faster than expected. Welcome to 750+.

Possible moonshot within 21 days.

We’re well above max pain today - I’m expecting pull back this week. But will open a GIANT upside position if we drop off by Friday.

Markets are closed on Friday. So whatever you are planning needs to be moved up by one day but I agree with you. Market sentiment is improving, we could also hear plans of reopening economy this week.

 

[mongo]

Markets are closed on Friday. So whatever you are planning needs to be moved up by one day but I agree with you. Market sentiment is improving, we could also hear plans of reopening economy this week.

Along with shortened trading week, there are a lot of calls at $550, lots of puts at $450, and max pain is at $505.

From: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[SOULPEDL]

@SOULPEDL Can you confirm that 1-4 are talking about Waymo and 6-15 are all talking about Tesla?

Correct. And #5 has a special place in our hearts.

I don't think I should have posted this so soon out of respect for other fellow 3rd Row Tesla patrons who all joined to get early access. Also the Engineer left Tesla 2 months ago, not 2 weeks as I noted.

I highly recommend joining to see the source, and I'm going to listen again. I guess you could follow-up with him at Eshak Mir (@esok_mir) | Twitter if you want some facts checked here. He's still a Tesla fan at heart.

 

[Krugerrand]

what is a big deal is estimating when Fremont opens up again. The SP is held back by somebody pulling the brake, we need some info to pull trough the brakes (an production restart date for example....)

It’s not a big deal and I’m going to tell you how to look at it so you can stop fretting and giving yourself another ulcer.

Assume the worse timing for reopen, so beginning of May currently. Now ask yourself if Tesla has enough cash to manage until then, including a few additional weeks to reramp.

Hint: the answer is yes.

There now, we can all breathe a sigh of relief and stop trying to induce make believe panic.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I don't know about that, 20% more shares is 20% more shares and/or 20% more $$$.
Only if your TSLA returns already exceed your future spending/ retirement plans does addition of shares not matter.

Point taken.

Dan

 

[BenPrice]

Dumped short term upside options at 562 and sold 70% of shares. Will rebuy on Friday and ARM UP when SP is 520s, aiming for 850 in 21 days.

Holding all my 2021 1000s and 100 shares through anything right now, including this weeks pending downturn.

I hit the exact lows and exact highs this week I believe. Within $1.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Interesting, thanks.

I didn't get the context of his work... He worked in Service than Autopilot /FSD team... Is he a machine learning engineer or other?

Yes but actual title I'm not sure, just "on the Autopilot team."

 

[EVMeister]

Dumped short term upside options at 562 and sold 70% of shares. Will rebuy on Friday and ARM UP when SP is 520s, aiming for 850 in 21 days.

Holding all my 2021 1000s and 100 shares through anything right now, including this weeks pending downturn.

I hit the exact lows and exact highs this week I believe. Within $1.

Remember that the market is closed on Friday. Or did you mean rebuy in the aftermarket/premarket?

 

[SOULPEDL]

There is a thread on reddit regarding this podcast, and one of the posts there has a bulletpoint summary of the first 30 minutes of the podcast that touched on some of the points that @SOULPEDL missed; you can find that thread here:

Third Row Tesla Podcast - Episode 13 - Tesla's Future : teslamotors

Some key takeaways from those notes:

Looks like the AP team is craving more data -- they will implement it so that any time autopilot is disengaged, the disengagement will automatically be sent back to the team
Labeling is now done in 3D
Smart summon should work much better in future iterations due to the 3D labeling redesign, which utilizes all zoomable/pannable cameras (previous only non-pannable/zoomable side/rear camera footage) to detect curbs
In the distant future, the car/app will know when repairs are needed and the car will drive itself to the service center

Thanks. I thought your 1st item was common knowledge... I've heard that for about a year, probably from service which is why I force disengagement after weird stuff even if it looks like it's recovering - just so Tesla takes a look.

 

[powertoold]

Yes but actual title I'm not sure, just "on the Autopilot team."

Something doesn't check out. It's ok though, we'll know with software updates in the next 1-3 months anyway

 

[dl003]

Dumped short term upside options at 562 and sold 70% of shares. Will rebuy on Friday and ARM UP when SP is 520s, aiming for 850 in 21 days.

Holding all my 2021 1000s and 100 shares through anything right now, including this weeks pending downturn.

I hit the exact lows and exact highs this week I believe. Within $1.

Would love to hear more about your prediction for weekend downturn.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Something doesn't check out. It's ok though, we'll know with software updates in the next 1-3 months anyway

Which part?

 

[powertoold]

Which part?

How he was able to join the AP team after starting in service. Perhaps he was a labeler. Also why he left.

 

[BenPrice]

Would love to hear more about your prediction for weekend downturn.

Max pain

The house will minimize losses with vapor money.

It will spring us next week.

If we close this week within +/- 10 510 then my next post will be “advice”, until then it’s just words.

If we end +/- 10 of 510 on Friday ARM UP. If Fremont opens early

Get

Paid.

The real money has accumulated.

News pumps will follow.

 

[SOULPEDL]

How he was able to join the AP team after starting in service. Perhaps he was a labeler. Also why he left.

Look him up Eshak Mir (@esok_mir) | Twitter
I'd also love to know.

 

[Nocturnal]

What dummy sold his 4/9 $535 call yesterday to break even? Oh, it was me. (LEAPS are slowly moving towards green though so that's awesome at least)