Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

I'm wondering, is this:
View attachment 533155
be made ready for this:
View attachment 533156

If so, will the cybertruck be build in China first? Ok, it's strange but they don't have legacy infrastructure like Fremont in China.

That isn't for making the Cybertruck.

 

[FrankSG]

In short, the more TSLA investors who understand that it can go much much higher, the quicker it will get there.

So again, I urge all investors to read Frank's detailed analysis (which has strangely disappeared from his signature strangely reappeared)... or at least skim to the end where he carefully calculates a potential of $112,886 per share.

My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

Thanks Peter!

Keep in mind that the $113k is kind of a best case scenario, and would certainly not be achieved this decade. It's also hard to accurately predict that far out into the future.

It'd require Tesla to solve autonomy, and to achieve a majority market share in automotive and AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service).

Although I'm generally not too scared of a government breaking up TSLA, at that point things could get dicey, because Tesla would rival most countries in terms of funds, influence, and power.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm wondering, is this:
View attachment 533155
be made ready for this:
View attachment 533156

If so, will the cybertruck be build in China first? Ok, it's strange but they don't have legacy infrastructure like Fremont in China.

That's a die casting machine in the patent diagram. Cybertruck will NOT be die cast, it'll be made from flat sheets of stainless steel cut, folded, then welded into a hull.

The die casting process Tesla is rolling out for the Model Y involves casting the rear third of the chasis as a single structure, but that machine in going in a Fremont (not Shanghai) in a few months, per Elon on 3rd Row Podcast Ep.#13

The structure under construction in the screen grab above could be another giant die casting machine, but be aware the last publicly mentioned schedule for initial Model Y production in Shanghai is Q1 2021.

 

[Buckminster]

A sensible TSLA bull has 10% of his/her portfolio in TSLA shares. Lets give that a risk / opportunity score = 1 (although a good investor will make it a 5)
All in TSLA shares = score of 10
100% TSLA DITM calls = score 20
90% TSLA ATM calls = score 30 (me)

Do I start moving to a score of 25 now or post battery day? I was going to hang on for S&P inclusion but this recent surge has made me think that I should deleverage a bit just in case. Also, inclusion looks a little further away.

 

[heltok]

€723=$784 in Frankfurt (+6,31%)

 

[Artful Dodger]

€723=$784 in Frankfurt (+6,31%)

CL1:COM
Generic 1st 'CL' Future
$19.61 USD/bbl.
-0.26 -1.31%

 

[junas]

The die casting process Tesla is rolling out for the Model Y involves casting the rear third of the chasis as a single structure, but that machine in going in a Fremont (not Shanghai) in a few months, per Elon on 3rd Row Podcast Ep.#13

Listened that podcast last night. If I recall correctly Elon said they have currently two machines. One in Italy (for whatever reason) and other one in China. He said they are installing one in Fremont after a month or so.

EDIT: cleantechnica also confirms this: The Redesign Of The Tesla Model Y Body Was Inspired By A Toy Car | CleanTechnica

"We should be starting to set up the one from Italy next month."

"To bring the vision of massive cast body components to reality, Tesla bought not one, but two of the world’s largest casting machines."

 

[CyberDutchie]

I'm wondering, is this:
View attachment 533155
be made ready for this:
View attachment 533156

If so, will the cybertruck be build in China first? Ok, it's strange but they don't have legacy infrastructure like Fremont in China.

Nice try, but that drawing doesn’t seem to fit the photo of the construction there.

 

[MC3OZ]

Listened that podcast last night. If I recall correctly Elon said they have currently two machines. One in Italy (for whatever reason) and other one in China. He said they are installing one in Fremont after a month or so.

EDIT: cleantechnica also confirms this: The Redesign Of The Tesla Model Y Body Was Inspired By A Toy Car | CleanTechnica

"We should be starting to set up the one from Italy next month."

"To bring the vision of massive cast body components to reality, Tesla bought not one, but two of the world’s largest casting machines."

I think it is one from China already in Fremont and one from Italy on the way to Fremont.

Getting casting machines in Berlin and Shanghai should not be a problem.

As they are apparently the size of a small house, construction, transport and assembly may take some time.

IMO that was definitely the most interesting part of the Podcast...

 

[generalenthu]

That's exactly how I understand it, minus those delta numbers being readily available. Thanks for filling in that gap in my knowledge!

Looks like the delta of the $800s was 12% @ market close, meaning that to delta hedge appropriately for the 7,647 outstanding contracts, MMs needed to hold 764,700 * .12 = 91,764 shares to be delta neutral for just these contracts. This assumes all contracts were sold by MMs, and they all delta hedge 100% all the time.

Considering the SP moved up $30 in AH trading, I'd imagine the delta would now be 27% (delta of $770s upon market close), and so the MMs will need an additional 764,700 * .15 = 114,705 shares to stay delta neutral on just these $800 CALL option contracts expiring this week.

But this is just one tiny piece of the puzzle. Their delta hedging requirements will have changed further from not just all the other CALL options they're holding, but also the PUT options. For every sold PUT option, a MM has to be short a certain # of shares to stay delta neutral, but whenever the SP goes up, it will buy shares to unload some of this short position.

Add these delta hedging needs for every single currently outstanding CALL and PUT option, and you can imagine the buying and selling MMs do when the SP moves up and down is enormous. @ReflexFunds used to calculate the exact numbers. In this post he calculated that in mid-December for every $10 TSLA SP moved up, MMs had to buy 4.3M shares to stay delta neutral, which might not be 100% accurate, but it's pretty crazy nonetheless.

I keep a tab on the delta hedging need from price moves based on latest price and open interest.

 

[FrankSG]

I keep a tab on the delta hedging need from price moves based on latest price and open interest.

View attachment 533161

This is exactly like the information @ReflexFunds used to post!

Is this readily available? If no, how do you compile it? Would love to see this daily, like @Artful Dodger 's After Action Reports.

Also, how is it that a -100 move is so much more than any of the +100's? You'd expect the -100 to be similar to the +100 from one hundred dollars ago?

 

[junas]

I think it is one from China already in Fremont and one from Italy on the way to Fremont.

Getting casting machines in Berlin and Shanghai should not be a problem.

As they are apparently the size of a small house, construction, transport and assembly may take some time.

IMO that was definitely the most interesting part of the Podcast...

Yeah. I thought one is enough for Fremont, but could be that they need another one there.

I initially thought that second machine could mean Model Y program being ahead of schedule in China. Building is ready in 2-3 months anyway. It wouldn't be first time they lie us about Model Y schedules

 

[Artful Dodger]

Listened that podcast last night. If I recall correctly Elon said they have currently two machines. One in Italy (for whatever reason) and other one in China. He said they are installing one in Fremont after a month or so.

EDIT: cleantechnica also confirms this: The Redesign Of The Tesla Model Y Body Was Inspired By A Toy Car | CleanTechnica

"We should be starting to set up the one from Italy next month."

"To bring the vision of massive cast body components to reality, Tesla bought not one, but two of the world’s largest casting machines."

Here's the transcript of Elon's comments on the casting machines (10:35)

"it does require the world's biggest casting machine which we have two of so it's like basically around six thousand ton casting machine the size of a small house basically one coming from Italy and one coming from China and we should be actually starting to set up the one from Italy and I think next month"​

The current iteration of the Model Y in production at Fremont used 2 rear castings, which are joined together with two other parts. It's clear from the context that the casting machines themselves came from China and Italy, and are being installed in Fremont.

Model Y will get its casting machine in turn, but that production is about 9 months away.

 

[junas]

Here's the transcript of Elon's comments on the casting machines (10:35)

"it does require the world's biggest casting machine which we have two of so it's like basically around six thousand ton casting machine the size of a small house basically one coming from Italy and one coming from China and we should be actually starting to set up the one from Italy and I think next month"​

The current iteration of the Model Y in production at Fremont used 2 rear castings, which are joined together with two other parts. It's clear from the context that the casting machines themselves came from China and Italy, and are being installed in Fremont.

Model Y will get its casting machine in turn, but that production is about 9 months away.

Ok thanks. Should have double-checked that myself. Easy to miss details when listening and English is my fifth language anyway.

 

[generalenthu]

This is exactly like the information @ReflexFunds used to post!

Is this readily available? If no, how do you compile it? Would love to see this daily, like @Artful Dodger 's After Action Reports.

Also, how is it that a -100 move is so much more than any of the +100's? You'd expect the -100 to be similar to the +100 from one hundred dollars ago?

I scripted this and it's on autopilot here.

More put holders out there. So downside gamma is more.

 

[MC3OZ]

Here's the transcript of Elon's comments on the casting machines (10:35)

"it does require the world's biggest casting machine which we have two of so it's like basically around six thousand ton casting machine the size of a small house basically one coming from Italy and one coming from China and we should be actually starting to set up the one from Italy and I think next month"​

The current iteration of the Model Y in production at Fremont used 2 rear castings, which are joined together with two other parts. It's clear from the context that the casting machines themselves came from China and Italy, and are being installed in Fremont.

Model Y will get its casting machine in turn, but that production is about 9 months away.

We could even interpret it as 1 smaller casting machine already at Fremont, and 2 bigger ones coming one from Italy and one from China,...

Or one from China already there, and the one from Italy coming... it isn't 100% clear to me..

EDIT:: (Below)
We don't know the run rate of casting machines... 2 machines might be needed for the target weekly production of Model Y... If it is 2 big machines (1 piece) and 1 smaller machine (3 piece), then the smaller machine might eventually be used for Model 3.

It isn't clear if the move from 3 piece to 1 piece requires a bigger machine.

 

[ProfTournesol]

That's a die casting machine in the patent diagram. Cybertruck will NOT be die cast, it'll be made from flat sheets of stainless steel cut, folded, then welded into a hull.

The die casting process Tesla is rolling out for the Model Y involves casting the rear third of the chasis as a single structure, but that machine in going in a Fremont (not Shanghai) in a few months, per Elon on 3rd Row Podcast Ep.#13

The structure under construction in the screen grab above could be another giant die casting machine, but be aware the last publicly mentioned schedule for initial Model Y production in Shanghai is Q1 2021.

ok, so no cybertruck. so the location could be for the die casting machine.

 

[MC3OZ]

ok, so no cybertruck. so the location could be for the die casting machine.

Actually for Cybertruck we know the skin is folded, but other parts might be stamped or cast, I would not be totally surprised to find a cast component, but perhaps a regular cast component, not a component that needs a giant machine.

But Cybertruck is like a aircraft where the skin is the structure.... all other parts being stamped is likely as they may be smaller and attached to the skin... not structural..

From Elon's tweets they seem to be nailing down aspects of the Cybertruck, that probably means they are working out how to build it, and making these decisions...

But that location could be casting for Model Y, I also don't think Cybertruck will be built in China anytime soon.

 

[WarpedOne]

all other parts being stamped is likely as they may be smaller and attached to the skin... not structural..

You still need internal structure to attach all those seats and everything.

 

[MC3OZ]

You still need internal structure to attach all those seats and everything.

Yep that is right, but I think they have a few options... for example stamped panels attached to a frame.....

Or perhaps the floor is part of the skin...