Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

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Man I cringe every time I see someone make a VW short squeeze comparison.

The VW thing was because Porsche secretly bought up so much of the company that they suddenly announced "Oh, hey, we bought up nearly all the shares out there other than the 20% owned by Lower Saxony- so now there's actually only 6% float on the market total, but the stock is shorted at 12%....that might be issue for some shorts so we wanted to mention it, FYI"

So soon after the announcement the stock shot up about 5x (around 210E per share to a bit over 1000)....after which Porsche released 5% of their shares back to the market to ease the squeeze, such that the stock had dropped back under 500 by end of the same week, and was back down to ~200 a month or two later right where it began.... (also Porsche made a TON of money selling that 5% of shares to desperate shorts...)



Unless someone secretly bought up like 77% of the Tesla shares NOT owned by Elon the comparison makes no sense.

The rising stock price certainly hurts the shorts...a lot... (and has been for a while now)... an S&P spike certainly hurts the shorts.... (and who knows, maybe the dividend thing somehow hurts em or makes them think it will or whatever folks keep debating).

But there's no circumstances here like the VW 5x SP in 2 days situation... (and thankfully also no "goes right back to where it'd been sitting after" situation either....) because there's simply, by quite a bit, more floated shares than short interest.

They keep having to pay more for the shares, but unlike the VW situation, plenty of shares exist to buy

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

What happened to my Model X roof glass yesterday must have been a sign for things to come today: TSLA going through the roof

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Btw. Mobile service on the way. Very early production Model X, out of warranty, but somehow I’m more than happy to pay Tesla Service for this repair

Nothing to worry about. The SP just blew your roof off.

 

[lafrisbee]

More arguments happen when the SP is going up than down. It's counter intuitive, unless you are familiar with the impact that losing or winning has on testosterone.

Can Watching Sports Affect Your Testosterone Levels?

It is happy drunk ants arguing.

 

[jhm]

$342B

 

[lafrisbee]

If my math is correct, you have 10 "think" in one post

yes but, "it seems" is also an "I think". I have yet to think why he did not have 11 "think." 12.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm only holding 2 calls right now, which on one hand is sad, but on the other hand makes for far less stress. One is a September 2021 $1100 which I don't plan on touching. The other is an October $900. I think I'll wait and see what happens with inclusion between now and battery day. Current price seems so high but we still have those two other catalysts to deploy.

 

[smorgasbord]

I tried to tell all family friends over last three years to buy Tesla, some bought it and sold it with little profit, other never did, I think biggest problem with Tesla is up until recently and some what still today, main stream media painted Tesla is so bad, One car fire of Tesla and media gangs up on headlines, this kind of treatment kept lot of investors away because they never went in-depth in Tesla story.

Talking with friends and family about TSLA has been a master class in market psychology:

• If TSLA was doing well I often got a "the money to be made in TSLA has already been made" excuse. They'd point to my own experience (Roadster more than paid for by TSLA, etc.) as "proof" the boat had left the dock.
• If TSLA was not doing well I often got a "Tesla is far too risky a company" excuse. They'd point to whatever FUD was being promulgated in the media that week.

 

[wipster]

I will offer my services for 50% of what you expect to lose. I'll drive to your house and give you a good slap twice a year.

 

[ZsoZso]

Saw that interview earlier today.

Is it that hard for a buy side analyst to point out common misconceptions? I mean you have a buy target on the stock......I would expect you to have more knowledge that just "It's the tesla brand" in relation to the last question that was asked which essentially was "I see all of this competition coming and some of these cars, from the outside, look pretty good".........Is it that hard to say that it matters more about what's in the car verses the exterior appearance. A Tesla crushes all competition out now and announced in the near future in terms of specs and price.

Yes, he could have pointed out that the "competition is coming" mantra has been chanted for years and what did they deliver ? Taycan 200 mile range for $150k when you can get a Model S for half the price going twice the distance. Similar situation for iPace, EQC and e-tron vs the Model Y. However, the best reply would be to point out that none of those are Tesla-competition. They all compete and take away sales from ICE vehicles. Tesla can easily sell all the EVs they make and so can Rivian, Audi, Porsche, MB, VW etc*. The world-wide EV demand is orders of magnitude higher than what Tesla can produce any time soon, so all the EV competiton is easily soaked up by the market. The only losers are ICE vehicles.

Spoiler: *

* Just don't include Nikola there, market for CGI renderings is not that hot...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Daimler Is Paying The U.S. $2 Billion To Settle Dieselgate

Clean Technica

Daimler Is Paying The U.S. $2 Billion To Settle Dieselgate

 

[SebastianR]

Oh, what a day cheers to the longs!

What really baffles me is how most of German automotive companies seem to be totally oblivious to what is happening with Tesla right now and seem to be stuck in an deep hole of self-pity over the world not understanding the merits of great Diesel engines. And even those that I thought would get it like VW do silly things: Did you know that the long-range ID3 can legally only transport 4 people? (Same reason it won’t have towing ability) the bigger battery is too heavy to carry 5 passengers...

 

[Rockster]

I am a bigger idiot than you

I had 420 shares

Listened to a guy who has been investing for a while and losing a lot of money but he wasn’t telling me he was -40%, and he convinced to sell at $1150 because he said not to be greedy.

I lost 200 grands listening to his advice

I can crush that sob story.

I posted about this in this thread a while ago but here it is again: I was worried about the pandemic so I took profits and sold my entire TSLA holdings at ~$750, thinking I'd get back in at the dip. I got back in later, when it was obvious what an idiot I was, but I've lost out on ~$2.8M. That's enough to make the difference between retiring any day now versus needing to wait a while longer (though not too long if days like today keep happening). Like the folks here said when I whined before, you can't spend too much time looking in the rearview mirror. Just take a deep breath and move on.

 

[Rockster]

Tesla gets approval for next construction phase for Giga Berlin

"On August 17, the Brandenburg State Office for the Environment approved the early start of Tesla’s next construction phase for its European production facility. Construction crews on the site can now begin driving piles as a part of the continuing foundational work."​

I think it will be interesting to compare the China buildout with the Berlin one. How do they compare in environmental studies/approval, land prep, build time, time to first production, etc. My gut tells me that Germany will be more bureaucratic than China, but even with that it seems that giga Germany has some great momentum.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Man I cringe every time I see someone make a VW short squeeze comparison.

The VW thing was because Porsche secretly bought up so much of the company that they suddenly announced "Oh, hey, we bought up nearly all the shares out there other than the 20% owned by Lower Saxony- so now there's actually only 6% float on the market total, but the stock is shorted at 12%....that might be issue for some shorts so we wanted to mention it, FYI"

So soon after the announcement the stock shot up about 5x (around 210E per share to a bit over 1000)....after which Porsche released 5% of their shares back to the market to ease the squeeze, such that the stock had dropped back under 500 by end of the same week, and was back down to ~200 a month or two later right where it began.... (also Porsche made a TON of money selling that 5% of shares to desperate shorts...)



Unless someone secretly bought up like 77% of the Tesla shares NOT owned by Elon the comparison makes no sense.

The rising stock price certainly hurts the shorts...a lot... (and has been for a while now)... an S&P spike certainly hurts the shorts.... (and who knows, maybe the dividend thing somehow hurts em or makes them think it will or whatever folks keep debating).

But there's no circumstances here like the VW 5x SP in 2 days situation... (and thankfully also no "goes right back to where it'd been sitting after" situation either....) because there's simply, by quite a bit, more floated shares than short interest.

They keep having to pay more for the shares, but unlike the VW situation, plenty of shares exist to buy

I think 007 is fairly alone in expecting anything like the 5xSP in 2 days VW situation. He actually kinda got run out of this thread because he was a bit to bullish at times, and to bearish at other times, and too rude all the time.

The rest of us is fine with lets say a 50% SP squeeze over the next month driven by stock split, S&P inclusion, battery day and a few days after that delivery numbers for Q3 which will be a shock to most.

 

[Green Pete]

was just thinking, what if project roadrunner is a totally different thing from battery day and is a head fake in a reference to looney toons roadrunner always outsmarting the coyote

 

[lafrisbee]

I am still back at post 192000. the group is discussing Jonas. I saw the video. And well I like to believe I can read at the second level and above.
Jonas allows his slip to show. By that I mean he gives a response which provides more information and in a unique way compared to what the other person was discussing.
He defended his low price by saying something along the lines of, "If I released an outlook where TESLA does all these amazing numbers of production you all would tear me apart even worse."
You could hear it in his voice, he was actually thinking that Tesla can. He didn't scoff at Tesla's ability to do those lefty numbers. He scoffed at the reporters for how he would be seen for releasing a higher stock price goal (PT?). And I now see him more clearly. He's looking at a segment of the investing world and adjusting his message to what they will think of the message. He is not reporting the facts, and he is well aware of it. He is providing a service in which he coaxes and coddles his market.

 

[WarpedOne]

The rest of us is fine with lets say a 50% SP squeeze over the next month

I beg your pardon, no one asked me what I'm fine with...

 

[ninpb]

I got my dad to buy TSLA in April around 650. I felt bad because then it went down to 350. Bad that he could have gotten it lower. Never once did I doubt he would make a lot of money long term.

Surprised he did because he thought the CT looked rediculous.

 

[gavine]

I need to get clarification on this, but my understanding was that the $55k cap included destination fees which means you miss the Performance model by about $1,200.

Can you please get clarification? I just talked a friend into ordering a white M3P with the rebate. If it gets denied, he's going to be quite unhappy with me.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

From the German article about GF4 that was linked earlier:

The pinnacle of innovation, the energy transition, yes of a global hype. The latest hot *sugar* the world had to offer: Elon Musk, the Californian by choice, at least as crazy as successful

Gotta love google translate.

It's actually an interesting article. Should give the Americans here a little insight into the mentality of (too many) Europeans. That one guy though (you'll know who I mean) is probably paid off by someone. More unrelated lies than the average tslaq member.

Google Translate