Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

Did anyone notice that Bored Elon Musk tweeted:

Without speculating on whether that is Elon or not I liked that came out today when everyone is obsessing over the words in his email.

"Bored Elon Musk" is not Elon. It's a semi-parody account.

 

[avoigt]

I want to express my 'thank you' to all shorts that showed up here today explaining why Tesla is in trouble. Some old names, we since a long time have not seen, some new names with a well known syntax in their sentences and wording. Welcome back.

Reading their argumentation and reasoning makes me very positive about my investment and the future. It's a true positive to hear from someone with a different opinion as it helps to understand if this board does overlook something substantial.

The arguments from shorts I heard today are a confirmation that there is nothing to worry about.

I wonder though if it would not be more effective for them to hang out today in other social media trying to influence a week bull. I could not find one here yet ....

Frankly said this group of people here is pretty experienced in analyzing and validating information to the ground and w/o a substantial negative information even a $50 SP drop does not make anybody turn the head unless you play short term with options.

Turning a positive news into a negative sentiment is a well proven tactic from bears and it worked so far well. Educated traders have learned that and I applaud the buy orders I have seen here in the 3 digits.

Lets remember its just a few months ago that the shorts said that Tesla will never make a profit in Q3. Now what I hear is that Tesla will only make a small profit in Q4 and thats why they are in trouble.

We see the same pattern happening again and again and the SP will come up again once people look at facts instead of assumptions.

What I really love about my Tesla investment is that the instrinct value that is not yet reflected in the SP is that high that its is a for me the most save investment you can do today if you have time to wait.

 

[anthonyj]

Comically predictable price action. Unbelievable but believable. Can’t wait for it to pop to $350 next week and dump again to $300 and so on. Man people are making sick money swinging this thing both directions

 

[SGordB]

What's unnerving me today is the "existential" flavour of this update:

"... we’re up against massive, entrenched competitors. The net effect is that Tesla must work much harder than other manufacturers to survive while building affordable, sustainable products....
"Higher volume and manufacturing design improvements are crucial for Tesla to achieve the economies of scale required to manufacture the standard range (220 mile), standard interior Model 3 at $35k and still be a viable company. There isn't any other way."

I wasn't expecting a return to existentiality any time soon -- not after the victory lap following Q3, although there was foreshadowing in the flatlining of M3 production at ~4500/week since the summer, without explanation and in defiance of the game plan to forge steadily ahead to 10,000.

Wasn't it just a few months ago that Musk told an interviewer he believed their last survival crisis was behind them? If so, why use the "s" word now? Why not "to remain competitive while building affordable, sustainable products"?

 

[adaptabl]

Uh oh, that's it, everyone - under $300! That's game over, Tesla is now officially going bankwupt. We had a good run of it, but.... clearly we can never recover from this.

I'd like to thank everyone for all of the great times here. Sad we'll never meet again, being all scattered among poor houses across the world. It sure seemed like Tesla was going to change the world, but then, out of the blue, the CEO tried to comfort laid-off employees by reiterating Q4 expectations that were already in line with analyst expectations... and then the company suddenly became doomed.

We gave it a good run! Now if you excuse me, I'm going to go sell all of my assets and check into the local homeless shelter...

Too early to call it "Black Friday"?

 

[Krugerrand]

This is actually negative to me - $Tsla is now much less likely to surpass $360 which means they cannot convert some of the upcoming debt as they wanted. More pressure on capital, less $ for shanghai.

Shanghai money is already in the bank - literally. They have the capital they need to build GF3 enough to get production up and running.

 

[Garlands]

Why dont they offer leasing? That should create lots of demand for the more expensive model 3 versions.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Loving this sale, just picked up 10 more shares.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Maybe I got it, maybe more next week, we'll see.

 

[mongo]

No, I think he said it was permanent employees.

I should have reread before posting. Looks like 7% employee PLUS contract labor.

As a result of the above, we unfortunately have no choice but to reduce full-time employee headcount by approximately 7% (we grew by 30% last year, which is more than we can support) and retain only the most critical temps and contractors

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., the further $TSLA drop at the end of the day coincided with macros pulling back for the weekend after recent highs.

$TSLA exaggerated the move as usual - but obviously the negative sentiment was the main factor, as more and more investors are reading the bearish news.

In terms of price action there's been no meaningful pullback yet, so no clear bottom defined.

 

[KarenRei]

Too early to call it "Black Friday"?

Worse than Black Friday. Ultrablack Friday. Super Megablack Friday. Black Hole-Black Friday. Charles-Koch's-Heart-Black Friday.

 

[Remus]

Hard time deciding to buy now or next Tuesday.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Thank you for letting us know you aren’t serious.

You would contend that there is unlimited demand for $70k+ Teslas?

 

[lklundin]

I used to camp on TSLA, but now I swing trade it with exception to my core holdings. To do otherwise, you miss out on too much in the way of gains...

To me the amateur novice, to trade like that sounds like a sure way to feeling miserable:

Disappointment 1: When I actually place my swing trade order, I will in hindsight almost surely regret my timing.
Disappointment 2A: If I don't manage to buy reasonably close to the low point or to sell reasonably close to the high point, I will regret having traded at all.
Disappointment 2B: If on the other hand, I would manage to land some profit on my swing trade, I will immediately regret not having done so with a larger fraction of my investable funds.
Disappointment 3: I would look at my costs of selling and then re-buying, knowing that both my broker and bigger investors are laughing at my overheads.
Disappointment 4: I would look at the taxation of my measly capital gains.
Disappointment 5: After having sold some fraction of my shares and anxiously waiting to buy them back, I would worry that I will miss out on a major upwards move, increasing my risk of buying back at a too high price (i.e. back to 2A).
Disappointment 6: While looking at my measly after tax gains I would think of my guaranteed monthly salary and think I should do something better with my time (well maybe not, since in any case I hang around here on TMC).

So, good luck with your swing trades.

 

[Krugerrand]

I didn't read it all, but this is my question:
why Elon did not wait a week for this news?
He would have hurt the shorts with all the puts expiring worthless today... instead he hurt the (gambling) longs, probably pissing off some major investor who wrote those puts.
I don't know nothing, but it seems bad timing and self-inflicted.
There is something I don't understand?

PS: of course, I'm sorry for the people who got fired, but doing it today doesn't do them any good.
Next monday after burning the shorts would have been better.

Not sure what part of, ‘If you aren’t long our stock or don’t like volatility then don’t own TSLA’ you didn’t understand.

It’s not about you or me, it’s not about the shorts, it’s about making sure Tesla can continue to survive to see the mission through for all of mankind. The mission trumps EVERYTHING and EVERYBODY. Comprende?

 

[adiggs]

I have ALWAYS lost money on Options. No more. Buy and hold the stock because I also have cash for the sales.

When has this strategy changed, "Buy more as it drops more." As if you can tell when the knife is hitting the floor or something?

I caught a falling knife a few years back on my second purchase of Tesla, The company was busy falling from ~190 to ~130, but I didn't know that. I just thought that $160 was a steal. Oh the agony (not really) as the company kept falling to $130.

Of course, if I'd known it was going to keep going down to $130 I'd have waited. And if at $130 I'd known that was the actual bottom, then I'd have bought instead of waiting on $90 (which has never been revisited - I would still be waiting). I'm glad there are people that know tops and bottoms (I guess) - I just know that I'm not one of them, and the energy to gain that knowledge isn't something I want to expend my time on (I have better things to do).


I'm with @SOULPEDL .

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

I have ALWAYS lost money on Options. No more. Buy and hold the stock because I also have cash for the sales.

When has this strategy changed, "Buy more as it drops more." As if you can tell when the knife is hitting the floor or something?

I look at options as an Insurance policy. Maybe its not ur cup of tea

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hard time deciding to buy now or next Tuesday.

Both IMO. Harder Wed.
I think that short selling alert (forgot the name) was halted until Wed not Tues.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

You would contend that there is unlimited demand for $70k+ Teslas?

I would contend with the idea that they don’t sell Tesla’s for (significantly) less than $70k. There’s, last I remember, exactly 1 spec of the model 3 at that level. The ASP of the Model 3 has never been close to that level. If you claim Tesla is in trouble because they only sell $70k+ cars, you are not a serious person and not worth listening to.