Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

That's not how it works, though. Naïvely extrapolating the sales of hot, new item during phase-in is a foolish thing to do.

Plus, China has >130.000.000 potential customers for the Model 3 in China, according to Vincent.

In a market like that, 3.000 cars per week are alright – even very good for western standards – but far from being a ****ing Tsunami.

Context.

Taking a look here: China: automobile sales by month 2018 | Statistic

It looks like Chinese car sales dip quite a bit in Feb(and July? Ok.). Combine that with limited quantities available, long wait times, and the store not being the only(or most efficient) way to order one, and that sounds pretty good to me.

We want addressable demand, not demand that’s going to leave hundreds of thousands of people waiting years for their cars(*ahem*).

 

[Pezpunk]

That's not how it works, though. Naïvely extrapolating the sales of hot, new item during phase-in is a foolish thing to do.

Plus, China has >130.000.000 potential customers for the Model 3 in China, according to Vincent.

In a market like that, 3.000 cars per week are alright – even very good for western standards – but far from being a ****ing Tsunami.

Context.

you're comparing the Model 3 (a $72,000 car in China at the moment) to a car that costs $25k and has a 30kWh battery? which one of us is missing the context again?

 

[Anstandswauwau]

We want addressable demand, not demand that’s going to leave hundreds of thousands of people waiting years for their cars(*ahem*).

Totally agree.

 

[shlokavica22]

Anyone with Bloomberg subscription can tell what this article is about?
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

See for yourself.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's not how it works, though. Naïvely extrapolating the sales of hot, new item during phase-in is a foolish thing to do.

Plus, China has >130.000.000 potential customers for the Model 3 in China, according to Vincent.

In a market like that, 3.000 cars per week are alright – even very good for western standards – but far from being a ****ing Tsunami.

Context.

Arguably, a tsunami is in reference to the area it is flooding - i.e. Tesla production

 

[JRP3]

Anyone with Bloomberg subscription can tell what this article is about?
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Essentially nothing. And I didn't need a subscription to read it.

 

[MP3Mike]

Replying to my own comment.. what I'm not sure how to reconcile is that Telsa said they had 1,010 Model 3s in inventory at the end of 2018. Any thoughts?

Where did Tesla say how many Model 3s were in inventory?

 

[AlexS]

See for yourself.

thank you, yep absolutely nothing important here

 

[Anstandswauwau]

you're comparing the Model 3 (a $72,000 car in China at the moment) to a car that costs $25k and has a 30kWh battery?

No, I did not. But thanks for putting words in my mouth.

which one of us is missing the context again?

I did not say you where missing the context – I was just referring to the EV market potential in China.

In fact, according to Vincent, there are >130.000.000 potential customers for the Model 3, so the current projections floating around right now point to "being well on track" for a respectable market saturation but IMO nothing that would be surprising or overwhelming (the figurative definition of a Tsunami).

I mean, did all of you guys expect Tesla to sell less than that in China?

 

[NicoV]

It's a battery pack line, doesn't mean it's exclusive to the SR, does it?

The SR battery is rumoured to be entirely different (in layout) in order to optimize costs, so the manufacturing automation is probably also completely different.

 

[Pezpunk]

No, I did not. But thanks for putting words in my mouth.

I did not say you where missing the context – I was just referring to the EV market potential in China.

In fact, according to Vincent, there are >130.000.000 potential customers for the Model 3, so the current projections floating around right now point to "being well on track" for a respectable market saturation but IMO nothing that would be surprising or overwhelming (the figurative definition of a Tsunami).

I mean, did all of you guys expect Tesla to sell less than that in China?

Did you honestly expect them to sell more? how many $72,000 cars do YOU think Tesla should be selling in China?

 

[Garlands]

new elon musk interview:

On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Did you honestly expect them to sell more? how many $72,000 cars do YOU think Tesla should be selling in China?

With all the EV craze in China, something in the ballpark of BMW or Mercedes, so 450.000 - 500.000.

 

[LST]

OMG OMG OMG just received THE sms from Tesla to schedule delivery of the MDL3 in Zürich for THE 22.2.19 OMG OG thats this Friday !!! Where's the bigger CapsLock when you need them ?... Needless to sy I'm totally exited, thats sort of a month earlier than I expected in my wildest dreams.
Back to "on topic" this must help the Sp to rise, no ? /S

 

[keydiver]

Replying to my own comment.. what I'm not sure how to reconcile is that Telsa said they had 1,010 Model 3s in inventory at the end of 2018. Any thoughts?

So, at most, Tesla is keeping 1 week's worth of Model 3 production staged in a delivery queue, so that anyone who orders a Model 3 in the US can have it within 1-2 weeks? How exactly do you spin that as a bad message?

 

[gora321]

Since when does Tesla unveil cars at auto shows? They don't like other cars stealing their thunder.

True. I have taken it as info not fact which raised my interest. Looks like that Model Y attracts.

 

[LST]

yep Green, that was me

 

[Pezpunk]

With all the EV craze in China, something in the ballpark of BMW or Mercedes, so 450.000 - 500.000.

So you were projecting $32 billion in revenue from China alone in 2019. wow, you are the biggest Tesla bull on planet Earth.

 

[gora321]

Tobia Sloth‏ @norse_creative
My garage is where Tesla Denmark deliveries are happening ! All these are going out tomorrow. Another 30 units at bottom fl. of the garage for next 2 days delivering 10-20 units per day, they plan on keeping deliveries from here next few months for the initial rush ..

5:15 PM - 18 Feb 2019
Tobia Sloth on Twitter

 

[gora321]

NorwegianModel3guy‏ @NorwegianModel3
More shots. 123 Teslas in total. About 100 of them a 3. #nodemand.

2:46 AM - 19 Feb 2019
NorwegianModel3guy on Twitter