Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

FORTHWITH, all OFF-TOPIC posts will be summarily deleted -- The SEC

/S

 

[mrdoubleb]

Cost of HW3 and labor will come later maybe Q3+

Sure. Just don`t know if some of the income would have to be earmarked for that. (I am not an accountant...)

 

[mongo]

OT

I'm not ignoring it, there's a leak that HW2 is plug-in compatible with the HW3 module. I'd expect Tesla to convert HW 2.5 units first though.

It's not a leak:

~6 months before it is in all new production cars. No change to sensors. This is simple replacement of the Autopilot computer. Will be done free of charge for those who ordered full self-driving.

Elon tweet
Plus they already said they had S and X module in a conference call

Relevant thread:
New FSD details

 

[lklundin]

I've owned some ARKQ for a while. It was my way of diversifying. I just can't do Banks or Healthcare, so broad Tech is my flavor.
Why so many ARKs by the way?

ARKQ sounds like the one for betting on TSLAQ.

 

[Zaxxon]

Q1 2018 has fallen in Norway. On pace to set the all-time Norway record, but it's too early in the month to put a wager on that.

 

[Todd Burch]

As I recall, from the beginning of the AP2 introduction Elon said that the sensor suite of HW2+ would be adequate (cameras/radar), but mentioned that the CPU was interchangeable and it might need to be upgraded in the future.

 

[KarenRei]

If only we had data as responsive as Norway from everywhere in the world :Þ

Current month's data is looking like 600/wk Model 3. Not bad at all

 

[Krugerrand]

Sat in Cyprus McDonald's, having a coffee, and hewr two blokes discussing " Musks company's are in trouble" talking about store closures and how Volvo will be releasing a new EV this year, very poorly informed, Tesla needs to begin advertising!! And push out a message to the more common people who don't follow tech news like we do..

The lack of communication from the PR team is poor, and people's understanding of Tesla is poor, I mentioned to the wife yesterday I want to buy a model 3, she flat out refused as in her words " cars that drive them selves are dangerous I keep seeing stories on the news about people dieing because of the autopilot"...

TIME to start advertising!! That should out us over 420 ,

One more time, it currently does NOT matter what Tesla says. It WILL be turned negative by every other media outlet. Behaving like other car companies and doing conventional advertising only makes people (with half a brain) think Tesla is lying to them about their cars like every other commercial.

No. Just no. And for the love of pizza, stop asking/wanting/trying to turn Tesla into other OEMs because that’s what you were raised on and it’s all you know.

Tesla does NOT have to do what other OEMs do to sell cars. Ever. They’ve already proven that. Do your part to change the narrative (and the world) and politely interject into the conversation and impart the truth. Yes. Yes, I’ve done it. Most people appreciate knowing the facts.

 

[avoigt]

Never mind what others watching are saying you can or cannot do.....

 

[MP3Mike]

It'd be pretty trivial, given that it's an induction motor - just don't send power to that motor. (It could still be used for additional regenerative braking to recover some of the efficiency lost from carrying it and the bearing drag that it causes.)

No because if that was the case it would get the ~310 miles of range that the AWD version does instead of the ~325 miles of range that the RWD gets.

 

[Krugerrand]

You may be right. I know Musk's policy re advertising. But when you have revolutionary new products, you can't rely on the media or word of mouth only. The former may confuse or give negative spin, and the latter may not reach scale quickly enough. Revolutionary and/or controversial products need proper communication and education by the company. Apple advertised the first Mac (1984 commercial) and also the latter generation of revolutionary products with the second coming of Steve Jobs (ipod, imac, iphone, etc.). Apple and their products are well know, but they knew they have to advertise and even create their own stores. They can't rely on the media, the public, or other store clerks (Best Buy) to sell their revolutionary products.

I know two people personally who are very smart but don't follow Tesla closely and when I was talking to them about it, one thought that Tesla was going bankrupt and another thought that Musk was a psychopath. But once I explained things to them rationally and with evidence, they were convinced, with one of them even buying stock in Tesla.

The fact of the matter is that the shorts and media smear campaign has unfortunately been very effective to at least create doubt and hesitation on the part of your average consumer (and investor). Maybe Tesla advertising (and beyond just twitter) is the only way they can change this narrative. They need to hire some really good ad agency, like Apple did, and communicate a cool, slick message that shows the full advantage of a Tesla EV over other EVs and over other cars period.

Commercials are 30-60s long. Did you manage to explain in that amount of time? Yeah, didn’t think so.

Yeah, slick, greasy ads and commercials, that’s what I want to see.

 

[lklundin]

New information in the DB report is that Tesla has a $1500 cash margin on Model 3. That is absolutely 100% material, no question about it. Maybe DB was misleading and this is just their guess but they made it sound like they got this information from Tesla. That's a Reg FD violation. Black and white.

Sorry, if this is not super OT, but my reading and heart stopped after reading:
"New information in the DB report is that Tesla has a $1500 cash margin on ..."
- momentarily, as luck would have it.

 

[scaesare]

Hmmmmm
Is Tesla following Old GM's playbook?

I'm sure you hope so @bro1999, after all your GM/Chevy Bolt is what they should aspire to!

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Tesla Probably Can't Make Money in China, Morgan Stanley Says

What utter BS.

First, they keep beating that dead horse Chinese customs thing that ended up being an English language sticker they had to replace to Chinese. A blip on the radar that halted customs processing for like a day.

Second they use this as the example for inherent risk of US companies` risks doing business in China, ignoring that Model 3 production starts in 6 months in Shanghai.

Third they mix in some data privacy BS for autopilot data - not aware of any Chinese government concerns over that.

Finally, they talk about Chinese domestic EV startup rivals - the day after Nio just scaled back their plans.

Seriously...

When did one of the Jonas Brothers quit music and take up pseudo-finance?

 

[schonelucht]

Aren`t they upgrading all HW2 owners who paid for FSD in advance to HW3 for free though? And if you did not purchase FSD yet, you`ll get the HW3 included when you chose to do so.

It's not about the harm. It's about the technological credibility of Elon Musks claims wrt FSD. @Fact Checking defended him by saying that there is not a single claim of Elon about the capabilities of their hardware that does not eventually come true. And that would then be the reason why we should trust his claims about what they'll eventually be able to do with HW3. I am saying that he was wrong in his assesment of what HW2 could do and therefore the conclusion can't be drawn that there is a very high likelihood of him being right on what HW3 eventually be able to do.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's Groundhog Day. Again.

 

[neroden]

Nope. The analysts may want additional info but if they get any they want to get credit and out into a note right away.

i.e. they get it in advance of everyone else. do you see the problem? This is what Reg FD was passed to address. Reg FD is fairly new (2000s)

This is all fully transparent to the SEC as every company does exactly this.

Because they were doing it this way before Reg FD passed. Nobody is complying with Reg FD. It's a complete mockery.

 

[Intl Professor]

Unless he's on 'roids...

Where he's sitting, yes. Too much heavy lifting.

 

[neroden]

The new pack is supposed to fix this, but the non-cell portion of the SR+ pack is still disproportionately high, and the non useful portion & cost of the SR pack is even higher. So I have to conclude that either the new pack design is not yet ramped for the first batch of SR+/SR cars, or all the weights just added to Tesla's website are completely wrong.

I'd believe both, given Tesla's history ;-)

Assuming the Deustche bank current $35k model cash gross margin numbers are correct, then as a long investor you have to be hoping that the new module and pack line is not yet being used for the cars, because this would then be a very easy additional c.$3k cost reduction on the SR car in the coming months.

I think Elon's tweet about the "S-curve" again yesterday is because this new module/pack line is still in very early and unpredictable stages. In the mean time, they can profitably sell SR cars which are software locked SR+ cars in a depopulated LR pack structure.

Don't think so. He was quite clear that they couldn't do that. I think the new pack machine is operating but probably not at full output (based on the leaks, it would have had to start operating pretty recently).

 

[schonelucht]

Sweden isn't at zero, Model 3 in Sweden is at below 58.

Only the Top 20 in cumulative YTD sales make the list.

Incorrect. Sweden IS at 0 for Model 3 in February. See here for a full model break down down to cars with a single unit sold.[/URL]