Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Solar Aussie]

Lots of shorts seem to be attempting to dismiss the Model Y but seems to me there are some huge advantages coming up for the age group 25 to 50 which have not been factored in. Given the preferences of many parents dropping kids at school for SUVs (observable outside EVERY school!) and the all-around camera technology built into Teslas, I think the demand for SUVs will even increase just because of the Tesla Y offering. They are going to be safer than most, quieter and not tippable with their low centre of gravity. - all known factors... BUT another thing recently in the press which is VERY anti ICE is the need for parents waiting outside schools to switch off their ICE petrol and diesel cars because of the dangers to young children's lungs of all those fumes.... SUV Tesla Y will become a no-brainer purchase - why choose anything else.. and then the route to autonomous driving summons too.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not according to after- hours trading (everyone knew this was coming). But unless anyone here is a psychic, who knows?

What time was the SEC filing posted? I didn't see it mentioned here on TMC until after 8 PM EDT when the After-hrs session was already finished.

EDIT: Oh okay I see that mutle, Today at 7:46 PM EDT posted "SEC response to the court is in"

So at least the last 15 min of the After-hrs session, but it IS a 17 page document and reading takes time. So I wouldn't necessarily expect any reaction today.

 

[sparcs]

As for the contempt hearing, the Tesla legal team's response was so exceptional that I'm wondering if there are behind the scenes negotiations for a settlement that would allow the SEC to save face. Perhaps they withdraw the contempt complaint with Tesla affirming the need in the future to more strictly adhere to the original settlement. That could accelerate stock lift off.

There was some good analysis by TNEvol basically allowing for this saving face argument where neither Elon or the SEC win. Here's the relevant quote. If you click back on that post, you can follow the whole chain of discussion. This is the relevant quote that I thought was insightful:

I would be pleasantly surprised if the SEC took a major hit. However I think that is very unlikely. EM will likely prevail but not in a way that calls out the SEC. I think it is a win for EM even if the Court finds a technical issue with the tweet but no damages. The more likely result would be no contempt but a lecture from the Court to both parties on meeting the obligations of the agreement. These are big WINS for me because the government always gets the benefit of interpreting it own authority and gets great deference from the courts. I really hope I am too skeptical but that comes from 45 years of representing and suing the government

 

[Tenable]

It looks like most of the cars have 3 digits and some even have 4 digits miles. Are these used cars? Also weird how the year is missing from the title. On the US site all cars have a year in the title.

I'd wager to guess they are all "demo" cars. The details are limited as its likely an internal search. I'm in a facebook group for Tesla deals where these have been posted. Likely they are mostly 2018 with maybe a spattering of 2019.

 

[Tenable]

Are these considered new cars or sold as used?

They are all considered new, as such you will still receive the tax credit.

 

[kyzhk]

I'd wager to guess they are all "demo" cars. The details are limited as its likely an internal search. I'm in a facebook group for Tesla deals where these have been posted. Likely they are mostly 2018 with maybe a spattering of 2019.

With 4 digits miles I think some are probably loaners.

 

[Sudre]

Now my only concern is I can't find an actual production estimate for the Model 3. Everything I can find seems to be about deliveries or just vague. (Like "will increase sequentially"…)

I am just using Elons/Tesla's response. On page six, I believe it is, they pull out the quote about Model 3 guidance,
"[ANALYST]:Can you talk a little bit about the geographic dispersion for the guidance for 2019, where you’re expecting the Model 3s to sell through as well as the other models?
ELON R. MUSK: Well, I think we did, actually. Yes, it’s clear in our letter.
DEEPAK AHUJA: Correct. We indicated in Q1, we will start delivering Model 3s in Europe and China. And we also shared a chart showing the potential market size for mid-sized premium sedans in North America, Europe and Asia, suggesting those markets can be even bigger. So I think that gives a good sense of where we’ll be. And we’ll launch the right-hand drive version at some point to go to the other markets.
ELON R. MUSK: Yes, it’s maybe on the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s,something like that this year."

 

[bdy0627]

So is tomorrow another bloodbath?

Maybe. Define bloodbath.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Now my only concern is I can't find an actual production estimate for the Model 3. Everything I can find seems to be about deliveries or just vague. (Like will increase sequentially…)

Elon stated 2019 Model 3 production would be 350 - 500,000 on the Q1 earnings call. The SEC bizarrely claims he didn’t say it, but the transcript and actual recording are out there for anyone to read/hear.

 

[RobStark]

I find it unusual many are comparing model 3 to “luxury” category - isn’t $35k entry price far below what is considered luxury?

I know the high end trims are decidedly luxury, but surely now with SR & SR+ we are solidly looking at the mid-priced car segment? Especially as various fed & state subsidies in the US and aroud the world bring that down to the low $30k’s or less.

BMWs start at $35k. Those are considered "entry level luxury cars."

Very top trims of Camcords reach $40k. Very few of those are sold and sold with large discounts.

If they same exact car has subsidies is it a mainstream car and when subsidies are removed it becomes a luxury car?

A typical mainstream midsize sedan average transaction price is $25k.

Average vehicle transaction price have reached as high as $37k because of premium trucks, SUVs, and yes even Tesla has had an effect on American ATP on new vehicles.

 

[MP3Mike]

I am just using Elons/Tesla's response. On page six, I believe it is, they pull out the quote about Model 3 guidance,
"[ANALYST]:Can you talk a little bit about the geographic dispersion for the guidance for 2019, where you’re expecting the Model 3s to sell through as well as the other models?
ELON R. MUSK: Well, I think we did, actually. Yes, it’s clear in our letter.
DEEPAK AHUJA: Correct. We indicated in Q1, we will start delivering Model 3s in Europe and China. And we also shared a chart showing the potential market size for mid-sized premium sedans in North America, Europe and Asia, suggesting those markets can be even bigger. So I think that gives a good sense of where we’ll be. And we’ll launch the right-hand drive version at some point to go to the other markets.
ELON R. MUSK: Yes, it’s maybe on the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s,something like that this year."

But that question was about deliveries, not production.

Elon stated 2019 Model 3 production would be 350 - 500,000 on the Q1 earnings call. The SEC bizarrely claims he didn’t say it, but the transcript and actual recording are out there for anyone to read/hear.

Are you sure? The only reference I see is to deliveries. (As shown above.) Obviously you have to produce cars to deliver them, but I'm not seeing any actual Model 3 production estimates.

 

[elasalle]

But that question was about deliveries, not production.
.

Can you have deliveries without production?

 

[Drax7]

Requesting help to deliver 30,000 cars in 2 weeks implies plenty of
Demand and sales. This runs counter to the weak demand narrative.

I would expect a stock bounce .

 

[RobStark]

If those tweets require pre-approval, how is this not a restriction of his free speech? Also, when are they going to apply the same standard to Trump’s Twitter Account which can move the entire market?

Trump isn't the CEO of a public American corporation subject to SEC oversight.

Trump wasn't charged with violating SEC rules for an officer of a public corporation and settled with the SEC and agreed to restrictions on his social media accounts.

You have posted this before. It is beyond silly.

BTW The Trump Organization is a private LLC. Trump is the principle owner but not currently the CEO or an officer of said company.

 

[elasalle]

Maybe. Define bloodbath.

Red
losses
need to look for more new money to buy more

 

[davecolene0606]

So Boeing, kills 2 plane loads of people. Stock drops about 10%. Elon tweets and stock drops 15%.

Yea but they advertise on Sunday morning shows and bribe, er, I mean lobby politicians and they are a monopoly too

Fire Away!

 

[KSilver2000]

If some of us on this site decides to buy shares tomorrow, then the SP will probably go down. Just the luck of the retail investor.

 

[K_Dizzle]

If some of us on this site decides to buy shares tomorrow, then the SP will probably go down. Just the luck of the retail investor.

The Jedi mind tricks have finally infiltrated this place

 

[bdy0627]

Red
losses
need to look for more new money to buy more

My guess is that the morning dip tomorrow or Wednesday will probably be pretty close to the bottom, but who knows. TSLA seems to like to bottom after 3 to 4 negative days. If looking to add, I think you could do a lot worse than adding on the dip tomorrow, but I also don't have a lot of confidence that we will see a quick bounce, so I don't think there is much rush here. I think the bounce will take some time to develop, primarily because we haven't had the HUGE drops over several days that sometimes result in immediate strong bounces. I see the eventual reversal being similar to that seen in late November 2016. There was a pretty orderly drop over several months, and then it took several weeks for the reversal to develop into a steady climb. I added some more OTM J20 LEAPs today. Will add some more on further dip tomorrow or Wednesday.

 

[Electroman]

Coming from a highlander before my 3, I don't imagine the Y will be able to go that high.

Thanks. I am having difficulty getting an idea of its dimensions, given how close to '3' it appears. In fact during the test drives i could see many getting confused if it was a 3 or Y.

Anyone who has seen it in person, which CUV or hatchback you think Y closely resembles in terms of form factor and dimensions? Porsche Cayenne?