Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

It’s more than a bit bizarre to see an analyst come out saying demand will be weak until the $35k car is released a month after said $35k car was released and NOBODY mentions that fact.

 

[KarenRei]

It’s more than a bit bizarre to see an analyst come out saying demand will be weak until the $35k car is released a month after said $35k car was released and NOBODY mentions that fact.

The big decline today isn't really his doing; it's macro. Nasdaq down 2% on recession fears.

 

[K_Dizzle]

It’s more than a bit bizarre to see an analyst come out saying demand will be weak until the $35k car is released a month after said $35k car was released and NOBODY mentions that fact.

I’m shocked. (I’m not)

 

[BornToFly]

I’m getting so much grief from my better half over our heavy investment in Tesla! Having the SP lower now than it was 5 years ago when they were only making the Model S and had no gigafactory, etc, is crazy! Let’s get to 420 already!!!

 

[shlokavica22]

Boeing just lost a $4.9 Billion dollar contract, and it is down less than TSLA. Awesome....

While your general point stands, for the sake of precision- BA didn't yet lose this contract:
JAKARTA, Indonesia—Flag carrier Garuda Indonesia said it is seeking to cancel an order for 49 Boeing Co. 737 MAX jets, saying passengers have lost confidence in the aircraft following two deadly crashes in recent months.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Bloomberg's Model 3 tracker claims that 70,831 Model 3s have been produced so far this quarter. If you believe the bears that demand is a huge problem, then you'd have to believe that Bloomberg's model, which has been accurate to within a half percent the last couple quarters, is spectacularly wrong this quarter, or that Tesla is purposely producing cars no one wants, or both. Neither of those seem plausible to me, so I can only conclude that the bears are wrong (again).

Just a note: while not in the direction the bears would want, Bloomberg’s model has actually been wildly off(much lower) the last couple quarters, but was adjusted to close to the actual ones *after* the numbers were released by Tesla.

 

[AlMc]

I’m getting so much grief from my better half over our heavy investment in Tesla! Having the SP lower now than it was 5 years ago when they were only making the Model S and had no gigafactory, etc, is crazy! Let’s get to 420 already!!!

It is a big 'club' that you and I have joined......'Honey (If I am lucky that is what she calls me) how is TSLA doing today?

<cring/changes the subject as quickly as possible>

 

[Doggydogworld]

No meaningful new data in the NYT article,....

The registration data does support InsideEV's estimates more than your AlphaHat estimates, correct?

nor do they point out that Tesla sold 4,700 vehicles in Canada alone (a 10x increase over 2018 sales)

​

The 4,600 I saw was based on the assumption February matched January's 2,300. Do you know how they got the January number?

 

[TNEVol]

Why were SEC allowed to make a second filing then?

Under the rules of practice they are entitled to a reply brief. Moving party first. Respondent states it position second and Moving party get to reply to Respondent's argument but should not raise new issues. EM's team said new issues were raised by SEC so they needed to reply to them.

 

[BornToFly]

While your general point stands, for the sake of precision- BA didn't yet lose this contract:
JAKARTA, Indonesia—Flag carrier Garuda Indonesia said it is seeking to cancel an order for 49 Boeing Co. 737 MAX jets, saying passengers have lost confidence in the aircraft following two deadly crashes in recent months.

What is interesting, is that in the aviation community, articles and expert opinion are putting the blame on poorly trained pilots from less developed countries who aren’t following the correct procedure to disable automatic trim control, and not with the aircraft itself. But FUD and “news” in the general media could become a major problem for BA, since many people already have an unreasonable fear of flying. Just like FUD is a problem for TSLA. Will be interesting to watch.

 

[Tenable]

Bloomberg's Model 3 tracker claims that 70,831 Model 3s have been produced so far this quarter. If you believe the bears that demand is a huge problem, then you'd have to believe that Bloomberg's model, which has been accurate to within a half percent the last couple quarters, is spectacularly wrong this quarter, or that Tesla is purposely producing cars no one wants, or both. Neither of those seem plausible to me, so I can only conclude that the bears are wrong (again).

While I am bullish this is incorrect. Tesla would continue to build cars even if demand were an issue. They are obligated to buy the parts from suppliers regardless of their ability to sell. As such their only options are to build the vehicles or let the parts pile up. Hence the narrative that Tesla might be selling the 35k M3 at no margin or even a negative margin as that would be preferable to the balance sheet brutality of letting parts pile up.

 

[AndyH]

Elon's comment on a hypothetical 2021 S/X refresh:

Elon Musk on Twitter
"No such thing as a “full refresh” at Tesla or even a model year. Our cars are partially upgraded every month as soon as a new subsystem is ready for production. There is no cadence."

So for the foreseeable future S/X will just be tweaked with incremental upgrades just as Tesla have done in the past with the revised nose, center console, better battery etc.

Potential caveat: Plans change fast at Tesla.

 

[capster]

Can any one tell me why there isnt a place to go where we can suggest ideas for Tesla to use and have a system where you can upvote other peoples ideas that you like, and the engineers at tesla check the site to see the most up voted ones and decide whether they are good ideas. I have heaps of ideas how tesla could improve things and yet no where to suggest them.

Not sure making such info obvious and easy for their competitors to access is in their interest.

I put all my suggestions in appropriate topics on Tesla |. I believe Tesla’s various teams read them. The community does comment, so that is a poll of sorts.

I just noticed this this morning though: "Posting to the Tesla Forums is now limited to verified Owners. To verify your account, contact [email protected]." I’ve just sent them my VIN and forum user name.

Understandable restriction imho, there has been quite a bit of FUD over the years. My own use of the site has been dropping, though that may have a lot to do with this thread.

Probably also reasonable to post them on this site or other Tesla related sites. Maybe tweeting Elon or Tesla would also work.

 

[ZachF]

Boeing just lost a $4.9 Billion dollar contract, and it is down less than TSLA. Awesome....

Boeing is having a really bad month:

-737 Max problems
-KC46 found loose tools inside airframe (BIG no-no and production was stopped)
-SLS may be cancelled, entire project is a dumpster fire
-Starliner has fallen further behind SpaceX's Dragon 2... Dragon 2 may now launch with a crew before Starliner launches without one.

 

[ZachF]

I think many of Boeing's problems can be laid at the feet of Mullally, and his short-term focused policies. You'll see the same problems pop-up at Ford soon too.

 

[gene]

Today's quite the mostly-macro-driven bloodbath.

These are just the days I pick up some shares. I already have a lot of TSLA so I picked up some shares in a few stocks I like such as SPWR, ARKK, and CSIQ.

 

[SteveG3]

Saw you guys joking about spouses feedback re TSLA prices. While I don’t have that issue, I’ve got quite a few friends and family I’ve encouraged strongly to buy TSLA. One or two get a bit rattled by the price movements.

Here’s what I just texted to one after receiving a rattled text:



-Several analysts have said baloney things the past couple of weeks, including today

-Here's one that is very quantifiable

-That we will get the real data on in less than two weeks:

-Several analysts have said Model 3 deliveries will be 45K to 50K for Q1

-I see at least 60K actual being announced (20-33% over their call)

-Probably 65K to 70K announced (30% to 55% over their call!)

-watch for these numbers the first few days of April

-Watch for these same analysts to come up with some reason things will be bad going forward and not mention how hugely they missed their estimates for Q1

-Games being played.



I can tell my friend about how big the industries Tesla is disrupting are and how up for sale media coverage is, or how it’s just whole market down/traders hitting a high beta stock, until I’m blue in the face... but, predictively calling out the “game” with quantifiable key real numbers coming out in less than two weeks- steak.

 

[ZachF]

I think we are going to see Tesla announce the S (and possibly X) refresh when Q1 sales numbers are announced.

I think the end of the Standard range S is a hint, and I think it may happen at or around Q1 sales numbers so Tesla can put lower S&X sales in the "retooling for refresh" category. Long Range will become new standard range, and Long range/P will go to ~400 mile range.

 

[Tslynk67]

This is the person who is driving the price down?! I would think that his views would have a counter impact based on his track record.

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/jeff-osborne

 

[Tenable]

OT: I was surprised that apparently the Model 3 is not meant to be sent through a standard car wash per Tesla.

Tesla asks owners NOT TO USE CAR WASH - Model 3 Club