Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Majorgroove]

Broke through 280!

 

[ZachF]

popped through 280

 

[Zaxxon]

EV Sales: Europe February 2019

That's going to be a fun chart next month.

 

[farzyness]

I don't think that Vicky was the source, because Electrek was also leaked delivery numbers:

Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles in Q3 and deliveries could be even crazier

"A source familiar with the matter has told Electrek that Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles this quarter."

"This level of production is unprecedented for the automaker, but deliveries could turn out to be even crazier."​

Indeed, deliveries turned out to be even crazier: 83,500.

(In Q3 2017 they made almost as many cars as they delivered - so this wasn't just a lucky guess I believe.)

Vicky as a paint shop manager would not have any access to delivery numbers: that comes from the sales division, and is only summed up at the top.

I also don't think she had any motivation to be a long time Electrek source: she did break her NDA by leaking a few nuggets, but her goal appeared to be to basically proudly brag about paint shop progress. The Electrek leaker methodically leaked production numbers during most of 2018 (including Q4), with deliberate timing, which to me gave the impression of someone trying to "manage" market expectations.

So I don't think Vicky was the source, I think Electrek had a source at much higher levels than the paint shop. Which source went completely silent in Q1. (So far at least.)

I also didn't see any recent Alpha Hat figures: maybe Tesla plugged that leak too by talking to their mobile provider?

I.e. there's an almost unprecedented lack of leaks of Tesla Q1 production progress, which might increase volatility when the Q1 production & deliveries report is released on the 2nd of April.

Tesla cleaning house is probably related to this. Net positive to Tesla IMO.

 

[defc0n]

Not sure that max pain had much of an effect today. TSLA was weaker than macros though.

 

[TradingInvest]

So this means Toyota could not make a viable EV model? They have the weight of these issues but that does not prevent them from building one, they already did this. They have considerable EV development like other companies and if they scrapped everything to go all EV they could but of course at a significant handicap.

If Toyota decides to put in the effort, money and time, I'm sure they can build a decent BEV model. Many people can build decent BEV models in their garages. Some people have done that.

Toyota as a for profit company has to look at the business consequence. If their BEV is not excellent, they won't be able to compete with Tesla's vehicles. Fiat, GM, Ford, Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo tried, so far no luck. To me German car makers are in panic mode because of Tesla.

On the other hand, If Toyota's BEV is as good as Tesla's BEVs, that would be a disaster for Toyota's overall business. Toyota makes $20B profit each year from their ICE vehicles. They can basically say goodby to the $20B profit from ICE business. This is one of the reasons why legacy car companies have been dragging their feet. Now German companies have realized they can't drag their feet any more, Tesla is going to eat their lunch and dinner. German companies decided to go all in on BEV, this will generate huge pressure on Toyota: switch to BEV or go bankrupt.

A few years ago Elon and JB predicted that eventually all transportation will switch to 100% BEV except rockets. It's happening.

After the tipping point, it becomes BEVs against BEVs (in a few years ICEs will be out of the race). Look at Tesla's S3XYR lineup, software, direct selling, large charging network, nearly automated Gigafactories from material to finished vehicles... All the legacy companies and the new startups will have a hard time to compete.

 

[Mokuzai]

Sorry you all. I looked at the chart and now it stopped climbing.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Apparently Lyft is worth 25 billion dollars and people can't even see Tesla could easily take over the entire ride hailing/sharing world in 2 or 3 years.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

On the other hand, If Toyota's BEV is as good as Tesla's BEVs, that would be a disaster for Toyota's overall business. Toyota makes $20B profit each year from their ICE vehicles. They can basically say goodby to the $20B profit from ICE business. This is one of the reasons why legacy car companies have been dragging their feet.

Exactly. Think about GE. It would have been far easier for them to transition to wind turbines and grid scale battery packs than for a legacy car maker to switch to all electrics. They're too closely linked to the oil industry.

I think Toyota is capable of making the change, but I really think most others won't. Will more likely see new company sprout up from scratch using the Tesla formula.

 

[ggr]

Yes. It was offered on the S in early 2013.

... about 6 months after our car was delivered...

 

[neroden]

I got the mail package a few weeks ago. I am not an idiot but also not voting on tender offers very often either.

I thought it was one of the more confusing packages I have seen. Cambria is confusing, formula was confusing, “tender” not clearly defined. I could see people not understanding it and doing nothing.

I posted about my understanding of the formula on this forum in the past.

There is an option to vote online which I did. I hope

I would give it a 2 for clarity since I initially thought it was a counter offer and not the Tesla offer.

Tesla needs to send out a much clearer solicitation, I believe. "TESLA INC. and its subsidiary Cambria Acquisition Corp are offering $4.75 in Tesla stock for each of your shares of MXWL."

Communications strikes again!

 

[aubreymcfato]

I just discovered that eu-evs.com is maintained by a TSLAQ short:
Alex_T (@AlexT18503601) | Twitter

TeslaCharts always RTs him. I don't think the data are cooked (they are bullish AF),
but it will be best to check with other sources in the following months.

 

[humbaba]

Tesla cleaning house is probably related to this. Net positive to Tesla IMO.

Given that the leaks were to friendly outlets I believe they were officially unofficial. Tesla may have changed its mind about giving analysts a heads up, especially if they were planning on a surprise. I may well be disappointed, but even though I expect it to be small I believe they are pushing for a profit this quarter regardless of guidance. And, given the practice of analysts engineering misses, I would expect Tesla to not leak any production numbers as that would let the cat out of the bag.

(I'm not trying to suggest that cats should be kept in bags, or be sacked. After all, everybody wants to be a cat, because a cat's the only cat that knows where its at )

 

[printf42]

BTW., there's a curious thing I noticed this quarter: Electrek reported no leaked Tesla production figures, at all.

In Q3 there were several leaks, very close to the actual production figures.

For example there was this article right before the delivery report:

Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles in Q3 and deliveries could be even crazier

"A source familiar with the matter has told Electrek that Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles this quarter."
​

Eventual Q3 production was indeed 80k vehicles: 80,142.

Electrek either had a source who hacked into the innermost networks, or had a very high level source.

This Electrek source dried up in Q1'19 AFAICS.

Wondering whether this source dried up as the reason or result of Fred turns to the dark side.

 

[neroden]

Wow, that's a first. Most people I've talked to list the seats as their number 1 complaint about the Bolt. I guess you have a different taste in seats than most people - or at least those I've spoken with

Most people like extremely non-ergonomic, scooped seats which are bad for your back. A small number of us like straight-backed seats that are good for your back. I know I'm in the minority. (Along with nearly all physical therapists.) :sigh:

 

[neroden]

The list is self-selected and will therefore bias towards tech-savy enthousiasts. Not sure that the take rate of a tech option like FSD is the same with the 'regular' buyers.

I think the take rate went up substantially as soon as "FSD" included a number of currently-functioning useful driver assist features, which it does now and didn't before. I mean, this makes sense, right?

 

[ggr]

So this means Toyota could not make a viable EV model? They have the weight of these issues but that does not prevent them from building one, they already did this. They have considerable EV development like other companies and if they scrapped everything to go all EV they could but of course at a significant handicap.

There's "technologically could" and then there's "business could". Yes, they could, but no, they can't.

 

[Doggydogworld]

What happens to those small holders' MXWL shares if they sit on their hands and the deal closes? (Some may have bought MXWL as a part of a basket of high risk lottery tickets that would pay-off "bigly" if just a few survived, and are disappointed that their MXWL ticket is being pre-empted before the first numbered ball lands.)

If they deal closes they get TSLA shares just like everyone else. That's why a lot of retail investors don't bother to tender, from experience they know the deal almost always closes anyway...

 

[EVDRVN]

I'm not privy to inside information at Toyota, but from the outside it appears they have completely pinned their hopes on solid state batteries. Back eight years or so ago when they started their 10-year program that was very ambitious, but I do not think it was necessarily a bad decision -- other than they should have hedged their bets and proceeded with building out a first generation of EVs. That would have allowed them to gain experience with designing an EV which could have been applied to solid state battery powered EVs. But I digress.

It isn't that Toyota could not make a viable EV, it is that they have (obviously) chosen to not even try. An obvious explanation as to why would be their stated aim of waiting for a breakthrough in solid state batteries. I suspect another aspect is the careers that are on the line for pursuing the path they did. A rigid adherence to the plan can easily result from an inability to face uncomfortable facts.

That said, if Toyota were to try and make a viable EV there is a lot of inertia in the company that would resist it. This has been witnessed in essentially every legacy automotive manufacturer. It is logical that it would apply to Toyota as well and their management has given no indication of having the flexibility and agility required to pivot, nor the willingness to endure significant financial disruption.

Not they have not tried to make one, they have not put one on the market.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I also didn't see any recent Alpha Hat figures: maybe Tesla plugged that leak too by talking to their mobile provider?

As an aside with regard to AlphaHat, I'm not certain their methodologies for Tesla deliveries will survive the enactment of the California Consumer Privacy Act in Jan. 2020.

Not sure that max pain had much of an effect today. TSLA was weaker than macros though.

Volume has dropped as the price has gone higher as well.