Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

I completely lost my confidence on TSLA now
1 they already lost all their battery tech advantage compared to their Chinese competitors ( any domestic Chinese car makers can build a NEDC 500 - 600KM EV with much lower price and much better quality now)
2 their garbage quality. They didn't improve it a little bit in last 10 years. There is no way they can improve it in future. Check Chinese forum Check Chinese social media. Customers (a lot of them were tesla fans ) are furious。

Thank you for sharing your concern. I had no idea that their Chinese competitors could make vehicles with the same range and quality for less money. Your concern is very appreciated, but bitter hard truth like that goes a long way. So I'd appreciate it if you took a similarly long time to make this sort of post.

Thanks!

 

[EVDRVN]

I completely lost my confidence on TSLA now
1 they already lost all their battery tech advantage compared to their Chinese competitors ( any domestic Chinese car makers can build a NEDC 500 - 600KM EV with much lower price and much better quality now)
2 their garbage quality. They didn't improve it a little bit in last 10 years. There is no way they can improve it in future. Check Chinese forum Check Chinese social media. Customers (a lot of them were tesla fans ) are furious。

I do not agree with garbage quality but I do agree that many parts of the car are very poor quality and far below the fit, finish and build of my Tacoma truck and many low cost cars. There is no reason many of the interior parts have to be of such poor quality materials and so poorly designed. So far I have a new dash, steering wheel, turn signal, completely new passenger seat, few other Items I can't recall. I expect many items on the car to fail of fall off in the future so I won't hold the car past warranty and why I sold my S. As long as it is together and running it is a great car to drive.

 

[ruralectric]

I see lots of references to a "Model S/X Refresh" here. I've explored TMC a bit and I'm not finding any. I'd love to be wrong. Can someone point me to ANYTHING from Elon or Tesla that points to an imminent S/X refresh?

 

[Radpioneer]

No. He is 1 AU away from the Sun.
In future he may be at >1AU ... Guess where

....1.524 AU...????

 

[dondy]

GF1 is not Automotive for Panasonic, it's Energy.

In the Panasonic reports it was in Automotive&Industrial division. Energy is the best performing subdivision in Panasonic with the best Operational Profit. The BS Nikkey is writing is no different from the crap you see in Bg etc. (Panasonic is heavily shorted with similar consequences to Tesla). Last Panasonic report readily available is of 3Q (ended in december published in february 2019). Relevant page of the report is 8 (17). There are no differences since then.

They did invest in the end of last year to reach this 35GWh. It is no surprise they are going to slow down to absorb previous push.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I have lowered my cost basis quite a bit by selling covered calls. For instance, if TSLA closes below $270 this week I will have lowered my cost basis by $7.25/share this week alone. I don’t have access to my spreadsheet, but expect that will lower my cost basis by somewhere around a total of $50/share since last November to $239.

I closed these 4/12 $270 calls out today at ~$1.50. As @tivoboy says, "don't be a pig."

Like @bdy0627, I expect a climb into the FSD event on 4/22, but have still sold some $275 4/18 calls as a hedge. I will probably look to write calls for 4/26 late next week also, with some higher strike calls purchased to cap losses if there's a surprise profit or something equally bullish revealed between the FSD event/earnings call. I'm not comfortable going into that week completely unhedged, and have too much FOMO to just sell outright.

 

[ZeApelido]

I see lots of references to a "Model S/X Refresh" here. I've explored TMC a bit and I'm not finding any. I'd love to be wrong. Can someone point me to ANYTHING from Elon or Tesla that points to an imminent S/X refresh?

Dude, there was a guy on twitter that said so. Isn't that enough for you?

 

[Krugerrand]

I’ve been in TSLA since 2012, with between 1000 and 2500 shares as time goes by. . Let’s see, about 6 episodes per year where we all think the sky is falling times 7 years= 42 episodes where we think the sky is falling. Yet even I, after 42 of these doom and gloom episodes need to remind myself that this too will simply be a blip in TSLA history. I can’t even specifically remember 10% of the past “end of the world” episodes. Considering the amazing feats, against tough odds that has been taken on and succeeded by Tesla, what we are talking about here today ( frankly we don’t even know what we are talking about) is a blip in the big picture.

I remember them. Anytime you need list for reflection’s sake and to feel better, call me.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sounds like @verygreen contacted Tesla and they told him to be quiet!!! about the apparently amazing things he uncovered

green on Twitter

Must bigly important!

MAGA!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I see lots of references to a "Model S/X Refresh" here. I've explored TMC a bit and I'm not finding any. I'd love to be wrong. Can someone point me to ANYTHING from Elon or Tesla that points to an imminent S/X refresh?

There’s nothing from either, but something has to happen. I don’t think they can just let S/X fade away entirely and the 3 has too many advancements over them for them to continue selling well. I just doubt that Musk et al have such a blind spot that they’d fail to see the necessity of moving them up to parity.

 

[defc0n]

I closed these 4/12 $270 calls out today at ~$1.50. As @tivoboy says, "don't be a pig."

Like @bdy0627, I expect a climb into the FSD event on 4/22, but have still sold some $275 4/18 calls as a hedge. I will probably look to write calls for 4/26 late next week also, with some higher strike calls purchased to cap losses if there's a surprise profit or something equally bullish revealed between the FSD event/earnings call. I'm not comfortable going into that week completely unhedged, and have too much FOMO to just sell outright.

Week leading up to the event is a fairly sure bet. Depends how much steak there will be from the event when deciding whether to sell beforehand or not. I was hoping for steak in the model Y reveal and came up empty handed.

One would hope this one will be a much more positive outcome. It does seem hastily birthed from demand concerns. What are they going to show that we don’t already know or expect?

 

[gene]

I remember them. Anytime you need list for reflection’s sake and to feel better, call me.

I remember the first fire. I remember the 3rd Q (I think it was 2014) ER. I remember there were a few ER's that were quite decent but the stock price went down anyway. But so much is a blur. Wait!! Oh yeah, the falcon wing doors crisis in February 2016!

 

[drsmith7725]

Tesla Q1 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries.
approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter. This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

Due to a massive increase in deliveries in Europe and China, which at times exceeded 5x that of prior peak delivery levels, and many challenges encountered for the first time, we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter.

 

[jerry33]

I do not agree with garbage quality but I do agree that many parts of the car are very poor quality and far below the fit, finish and build of my Tacoma truck and many low cost cars. There is no reason many of the interior parts have to be of such poor quality materials and so poorly designed. So far I have a new dash, steering wheel, turn signal, completely new passenger seat, few other Items I can't recall. I expect many items on the car to fail of fall off in the future so I won't hold the car past warranty and why I sold my S. As long as it is together and running it is a great car to drive.

This hasn't been my experience, but perhaps I don't have enough miles on my 2013 (122K so far).

 

[bdy0627]

I do not agree with garbage quality but I do agree that many parts of the car are very poor quality and far below the fit, finish and build of my Tacoma truck and many low cost cars. There is no reason many of the interior parts have to be of such poor quality materials and so poorly designed. So far I have a new dash, steering wheel, turn signal, completely new passenger seat, few other Items I can't recall. I expect many items on the car to fail of fall off in the future so I won't hold the car past warranty and why I sold my S. As long as it is together and running it is a great car to drive.

Yikes! I haven't seen that at all. No issues with my performance 3 other than a couple of paint scratches that needed fixing. I had a 2015 85D model S for comparison. I like the quality of the 3 interior just fine.

 

[KarenRei]

In the Panasonic reports it was in Automotive&Industrial division.

Where are you getting this? Everything I've seen from Panasonic puts GF in with Energy. Automotive is things like satnavs.

 

[EVDRVN]

This hasn't been my experience, but perhaps I don't have enough miles on my 2013 (122K so far).

2700 miles and it all happened in the first 500 or so. The service center in SF is full of cars will all sorts of issues, one guy had an AP issue i have never heard of before. Most of the issues I see are design and materials based sans the drive system.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Where are you getting this? Everything I've seen from Panasonic puts GF in with Energy. Automotive is things like satnavs.

Slide 17, there's a picture of the gigafactory with the "AIS" label on it. In the past (2013 IIRC, when arguing against J.Petersen), cells sold to Tesla were reported in their automotive division, instead of their battery division.

 

[BornToFly]

I do not agree with garbage quality but I do agree that many parts of the car are very poor quality and far below the fit, finish and build of my Tacoma truck and many low cost cars. There is no reason many of the interior parts have to be of such poor quality materials and so poorly designed. So far I have a new dash, steering wheel, turn signal, completely new passenger seat, few other Items I can't recall. I expect many items on the car to fail of fall off in the future so I won't hold the car past warranty and why I sold my S. As long as it is together and running it is a great car to drive.

Interesting. I currently own 4 Teslas, and have bought 5 total since 2013. I haven't had any of those problems. Quality has been excellent. Makes it a little hard to believe your story....

 

[KarenRei]

Slide 17, there's a picture of the gigafactory with the "AIS" label on it. In the past (2013 IIRC, when arguing against J.Petersen), cells sold to Tesla were reported in their automotive division, instead of their battery division.

https://www.panasonic.com/global/corporate/ir/pdf/panasonic_ar2018_e.pdf

It's "Energy".