Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

While I loved my P90D, I think the whole conversation amongst car companies (not just Tesla) is a bunch of propeller heads saying how incredible FSD will be, and it being "right around the corner". Has anyone sat back in their chair and thought about the practicality of FSD? You can't use it on major highways in gridlock traffic or in large cities, as it will try to maintain a good, safe distance from the car in front of it which means other drivers and taxi cabs will jump into any opening. You will be lucky to move. Going cross town in mid town Manhattan during daylight hours? Hahahahaha!!!!!

I think that this a poster child case of a zoomy technical solution searching for a practical problem to solve. And that includes all car companies in addition to Waymo, Google and whoever else has thrown their hat in the ring. Let me be clear -- I'm not bashing Tesla -- I'm calling into question the whole topic of autonomous FSD cars from ANY company. All people want to talk about is the technology, not the fundamental value proposition behind it.

The value proposition is a potential $5-10trn revenue industry with 50%+ margins potentially worth over $20trn in market capitalisation which significantly reduces the cost of transport globally while accelerating the clean energy transition and saving over 1 million lives annually from car accidents.

You can argue over how long it takes to get there, who is currently leading, and exactly how much the industry will be worth, but to question whether autonomous cars will have value at all if they are actually delivered is ridiculous. Your safe distance issue is barely an issue even with Tesla's current AP, and obviously these problems will have to be completely solved with an actual autonomous car solution.

 

[AlMc]

Dunno, but the ones at $100 and $50 are hilarious!

Think I'm going to get myself a lottery ticket for next Friday. we would see a pop between the FSD even and the Earnings Call. It's quite a gamble though as next week's calls are quite expensive. Nevertheless, I feel the SP os totally oversold for the moment...

Given the high premiums one might better be served by selling weekly options. <not advice>

 

[Tslynk67]

Given the high premiums one might better be served by selling weekly options. <not advice>

Yeah, maybe, but I'm a bit scared to death at the possibility of being forced to sell my shares

 

[Pezpunk]

I have difficulty with all the talk of an appreciating car. It reminds me of the “think of it like an investment” talk I heard when getting estimates for solar at my house. I won’t be persuaded that way.

i haven't kept up with every post, but i assumed the posts i saw about it were being facetious. i hope nobody really expects the resale value of their used car to go up instead of down.

 

[scaesare]

Why would Elon go anywhere NEAR the topic of how many cars Tesla will make this year?

Because, as per Elon to the SEC: "You're not the boss of me!!"

A stance I happen to agree with.

 

[bdy0627]

Given the high premiums one might better be served by selling weekly options. <not advice>

Yep, and use proceeds for lottery ticket.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

All in!!!

 

[Krugerrand]

The overwhelming majority of current Tesla owners would not want to drive for Tesla network. What Tesla would need to do would be to get Lyft/Uber drivers to switch by offering incentives such as free supercharging if certain requirements are met. Tesla could also offer a higher rate since the owner would have purchased a Tesla or a lower lease deal for drivers of Tesla Network.

Why not drive for Tesla over Uber if your fuel expenses would drop dramatically and Tesla could offer a comparable lease deal?

Please link the survey or whathaveyou showing that. Thanks.

 

[shlokavica22]

You can still drive manually, and take it to a track. The comparison is between a fun fast car that can also drive you to work (or to Canveral while you sleep) versus a fun fast car that can't.
As long as it still has a steering wheel and pedals, nothing is lost in the available driving experience.

Fun fact regarding that one- a few years back the second hand GPU card prices went way above the retail prices of new GPU Cards. In other words- they appreciated after the purchase. Many people who used them for gaming (and initially bought them with that purpose) stopped using them for fun. They chose to use the cards to print money.

 

[pdq]

Carl Raymond said: ↑
"In a nutshell, either @neroden is wrong, or Musk is wrong. Akin to an unstoppable force hitting an immovable object.

I have great respect for both, but Musk is in a position to know more. On the flip side, Musk gains, albeit only temporarily, by underestimating the timeline to FSD. Neroden did calculate that Tesla can safely take back those full term lease cars and still sell them at a profit even without FSD capability".

Carl: Based on my personal experience, don't rely on Tesla taking back full lease cars and selling for a profit. I leased my P90D and it had a residual buy out of $70,000. At the end of my lease I got with a long time friend who deals in high end cars to talk about me buying out the lease and having him then sell the car and we split the difference. He went on-line to see current prices and told me "I could buy your car all day long at $50 - $55,000".

So, when Tesla took back my car at a cost of $70,000, has to put money into it to prep it for sale and then make a profit, how are they going to do that when the wholesale market is $15 - $20k less? Don't lose sight -- as in my case -- a 3 year old Tesla is like last week's newspaper as it doesn't have any of the new technology that's been introduced over the life of the lease with people wanting the latest and greatest.

 

[plug&play]

Sooo, question for you experts.
If you had $45000 to spend, which option would you chose:

1) Buy a Model 3 (with FSD) and use it as part of the Tesla Network to generate money for the next 5 years.
or
2) Buy TSLA stock and sell in 5 years.

 

[Krugerrand]

From the impact report (Tesla Impact Report 2019 | Solar Power | Electric Car):

There was a lot of speculation what the buildings in Lathrop are used for. So is it just parts manufacturing? Maybe manufacturing of the semi or roadster in the future?

Rhetorical. It says right in the report: CNC, machining and castings. All the speculation and guessing can now stop, thus reducing final page count of this thread at years end by at least 271 pages. That’ll make a lot of people happy.

 

[W84M3]

Sooo, question for you experts.
If you had $45000 to spend, which option would you chose:

1) Buy a Model 3 (with FSD) and use it as part of the Tesla Network to generate money for the next 5 years.
or
2) Buy TSLA stock and sell in 5 years.

2)..

If 1) materializes, 2) will be worth a multiple

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Sooo, question for you experts.
If you had $45000 to spend, which option would you chose:

1) Buy a Model 3 (with FSD) and use it as part of the Tesla Network to generate money for the next 5 years.
or
2) Buy TSLA stock and sell in 5 years.

2

Dan

 

[MP3Mike]

Rhetorical. It says right in the report: CNC, machining and castings. All the speculation and guessing can now stop, thus reducing final page count of this thread at years end by at least 271 pages. That’ll make a lot of people happy.

But is that the new building, the old building, or both?

 

[X Fan]

Sooo, question for you experts.
If you had $45000 to spend, which option would you chose:

1) Buy a Model 3 (with FSD) and use it as part of the Tesla Network to generate money for the next 5 years.
or
2) Buy TSLA stock and sell in 5 years.

2) buy now at depressed prices and see investment jump to afford multiple M3s...

btw: any thoughts on why stock has jumped up this morning?

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm still not convinced about the "stealth Gigafactory in Lathrop" hypthesis.

If we look at the California population density map:

View attachment 397308

Lathrop is the rightmost blue blob at the height of San Francisco, which can draw on a local labor force which is only 10% of that of Fremont, with a lot less automotive experience. There's Stockton (~10 miles commute) and Modesto (~20 miles commute) nearby (not on this map).

I'd guess logistics center is the role, with some manufacturing capacity that doesn't have to be close to Fremont: it's comfortably outside the dense traffic areas of the San Francisco Bay Area, and is a ~quarter of the way to the Reno Gigafactory.

Lathrop also lies straight on the north/south highway system corridor on the west coast, making it an ideal logistics hub position.

Stop it. It’s a castings factory, end of story. It had to expand for the sake of adding Model 3 castings and soon to be Model Y castings.

 

[mongo]

Carl Raymond said: ↑
"In a nutshell, either @neroden is wrong, or Musk is wrong. Akin to an unstoppable force hitting an immovable object.

I have great respect for both, but Musk is in a position to know more. On the flip side, Musk gains, albeit only temporarily, by underestimating the timeline to FSD. Neroden did calculate that Tesla can safely take back those full term lease cars and still sell them at a profit even without FSD capability".

Carl: Based on my personal experience, don't rely on Tesla taking back full lease cars and selling for a profit. I leased my P90D and it had a residual buy out of $70,000. At the end of my lease I got with a long time friend who deals in high end cars to talk about me buying out the lease and having him then sell the car and we split the difference. He went on-line to see current prices and told me "I could buy your car all day long at $50 - $55,000".

So, when Tesla took back my car at a cost of $70,000, has to put money into it to prep it for sale and then make a profit, how are they going to do that when the wholesale market is $15 - $20k less? Don't lose sight -- as in my case -- a 3 year old Tesla is like last week's newspaper as it doesn't have any of the new technology that's been introduced over the life of the lease with people wanting the latest and greatest.

That was under the old residual value guarantee though, right? It no longer exists, so the turn in price will be lower that the first model years...

 

[jerry33]

I keep hearing folks saying Tesla is to leveraged and in the same paragraph saying they need to raise cash, ya know, just in case.... in case what? When I hear these arguments, I hear no confidence the the product can sell at sustainable levels.

Wall Street doesn't make money if Tesla doesn't raise capital, so it's in Wall Street's interest to create capital concerns.

 

[scaesare]

Lol if the install equipment isn't operational then you're not at 35 gwh capacity! That's a pretty big "However"

Methinks you don't understand how expensive capital equipment of this nature is procured and commissioned.