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Here is the snapshot from Q4 '16 to Q4 '18. Set Date is when the ER date was announced.

View attachment 398253
I put all of that data plus Q3 2016 in a spreadsheet and came out with....basically randomness. I don't really see anything helpful from it. It may go up, down, or sideways this time as it has in the past. Having said that, the market is obviously forward looking. Deliveries were disappointing in Q1 causing everyone to lower financial estimates. Only way I see this ER causing a big drop is if it is actually much worse than everyone thought. Chance of a negative surprise seems pretty low. Chance of a positive surprise seems low. CC will be important as usual. Market is forward looking. If what Elon says indicates production and deliveries getting back on track soon with 2H profitable then there may actually be a climb from this ER. Given the negative expectations, I don't have much fear going into this one.
 
There was another Model Y design at that time. He got talked out of it for the current version that has a lot more in common with the 3. And aren’t we all glad? You should be praising that change of direction.

When it became clear it was cheaper to make all 3s with a glass roof, that’s what they decided to do.

You know, it’s perfectly okay to make a plan and then change the plan when a better idea presents itself. That’s what happened in both those cases and they were smart choices to make. It would be stupid to sabotage the company so that anthonyj wouldn’t have something inconsequential to criticize.
When did I ever say those were bad moves? All I stated was that Musk's word isn't always final
 
That's so short-sighed.

I live in one of the most eco-friendly city in the world, I'm in my 30s and most of my friend have high purchasing power (they can afford Model 3s, no problem). But they don't. And the auto industry is pretty happy to sell them expensive ICEs. Of course Tesla and EV in general will win (that's why I've been investing all my money in Tesla since 2012) but Tesla sales are not booming here, even though each and every one knows they'll buy an EV in the future.

Why? Because people are misinformed and waiting for young people's death or ICE company bankruptcy is stupid. It's an information/education problem, not a timing problem.

Waiting does nothing but protect the status quo (which, in a nutshell is sell ICE and devastate the planet). You should definitely care.

It’s short-sighted to accept that a good chunk of people who don’t want to try or change are likely to die during or after full adoptions of EVs? Um...okay. Thought that was simply more to do with reality.

The fact remains, people who don’t want to learn, who don’t want to change, who don’t want to try aren’t going to be persuaded by you or me or any argument. Those people have to come to it on their own or be forced by ICE OEMs dying and there being no other choice but EVs. You’re perhaps not old enough or have enough world experience to know that.

There isn’t a single soul in my circle of friends, family and acquaintances under the age of 30, who doesn’t aspire to own a Tesla, who doesn’t idolize, worship or look up to Elon Musk. These are people in all walks of life, economic situations, in several different countries.

In the same way Lex’s question to Elon didn’t matter, so too this idea you have does not matter. It’s just a matter time.

That is not to say we wouldn’t like to hurry the transition up. We most certainly would but nobody’s bothered have they? Nobody big enough or powerful enough. Individuals are doing all they can, but the OEMs, the politicians, governments, not so much with a couple of exceptions - like Norway.

You’re barking up the wrong tree. Even as the individual becomes educated that doesn’t get us EVs fast enough. What’ll get them faster is Tesla fighting on our behalf; growing, getting more powerful, putting pressure on the bottom lines of OEMs. Somehow, someway, forcing change in those big entities.

So, no. I don’t care about the stubborn and ignorant amongst us. They’ll get dragged along whether they want to or not, or die in the meantime.

I do my part to educate those who are curious, who want to learn, who honestly give a crap about making changes and better choices. That’s time well spent. That’s caring deserved.
 
Full disclosure: I love my Tesla MS but have a deposit on a Rivian R1T to replace our Jeep, partly because of the 400+ mile range. Yah it won’t have the Tesla SC network, and yah I will look VERY closely at any Tesla P/U introduced, but I really want to replace our Jeep with something that performs even better off-road and does not burn gasoline, AND it has to have very good range. Besides, my wife loves pickups, and is still so-so on our MS, finds it too nerdy/techie. She does like the acceleration, though.

Please don’t run me out of town.

The R1T is going to have 400+ real world mileage?
 
You do a disservice by saying that. There are essentially zero V3 Superchargers right now, and even for the couple that exist the firmware required to use them at V3 speeds hasn't been released to the public yet. So his trips still look exactly the same.

And Tesla said that weren't going to upgrade V2 sites to V3 sites, though Elon sort of contradicted that in the Model Y announcement. So at this point V3 Supercharging speeds are still somewhere out on the horizon and may not actually make any difference to people for years to come.

:rolleyes:

But there will be and there may be version 4. Not acknowledging the advances being made every day is dishonest. It’s coming. This is not a static situation. Thank The Lord early S adopters had more foresight.

If I can’t do it today then it’s off the table! :rolleyes:
 
No, but the speed limits are 85 so most go 90+ in hot weather with the A/C on. Takes a lot of energy to push all that air.

I drove like a bandit through Arizona (over 100F), New Mexico (also over 100F AND high winds the whole way) and then Texas and averaged 266. Efficient little bugger that LR RWD 3.

It’s happening. Everyone be patient. We’ll get more range, we’ll get more and better charging options, we’ll get the improved efficiencies.
 
I think nobody believes Elon anymore. His bold claims have come back to bite him in the ass. And Tesla is going so far against the grain from a technology standpoint for FSD, a strategy literally no one else is adopting, that it just isn’t believable that they’re going to accomplish FSD.

Even as a long term shareholder and Tesla fanboy, autopilot is cool and everything but I don’t think they can do FSD. The system is still fairly rudimentary and the experience has not been compelling enough to warrant FSD discussion. Just the promise that it might one day make it there via software. I have my doubts.

Yes, the bold claim that Tesla will show the world an EV is not simply a glorified golf cart.

Yes, the bold claim Tesla would make compelling EVs that beat all comers in performance metrics.

Yes, the bold claim Tesla would make a really good car that could be had for 35k US and have no less than 200 miles of range and 0-60 faster than you can burn toast and be the safest vehicle and capable if supercharging and, and.

Yes, the bold claim they’d build their own GF and it would produce more batteries than the test of the world combined.

Yes, the bold claim that Tesla would build its own charging network all over the globe.

Yes, all have come back to bite Elon in the arse. Shame on him!

They’ll do FSD. I’ve not a clue when and frankly doesn’t matter in the scheme of things. That guy is the most determined individual to ever walk this planet. I’ve zero doubt because I’ve been paying attention to the amazing accomplishments to date, not whether they finished on a specific date or not. Seems to me the accomplishments should be the focus not the timeline. Seems to me the accomplishments should be what determines future possibilities not the timeline.

Yes, I believe Elon. Next week, next month, next year, next decade. Don’t care.
 
I don’t, I think each strategy has its pros and cons. But for example Elon’s claim of “we have more data than anyone” isn’t really valid to me because all that data has not translated to a truly compelling product offering. Even WITH all that data....it’s still a pretty basic system that can kill you if you’re not careful. So I just don’t see this FSD narrative that he’s pushing. To me that’s unlikely to change even after the investor day on autopilot because I’m sure they’ll show off some previously recorded or pre mapped demo and go into future hypotheticals without actual real world tangible effects.

Maybe you need to talk nicer to your car. Mine has never tried to kill me but certainly has saved my bacon a time or six.

They like to be bathed regularly. They love being plugged in. They don’t like Country and Western music. They enjoy Atari and practical jokes, like refusing to talk with iPhone when it’s pouring rain out and your arms are full of groceries.
 
Using Maxwell tech seems to be the only reasonable way to get 600+ miles out of a Roadster.

So if the new Roadster achieves energy consumption similar to the Model S, and it ships with a 200 WHr bty, it may in fact have an 670 miles range with existing batteries. This is possible because:
  • 3 SRPM motors instead of 2 AC synchronous motors means > Efficiency
  • bigger tires, but smaller frontal area, means that total drag may = Model S
  • achieved when driven like a Model S on the Highway (not a Cannonball Run)
Then when 1st Gen 'Maxcells' become available, either the 200 KWh roadster pack loses 133 Kg (300 lbs), or a 240 KWh bty gives the 'MaxRoad' over 800 mi range.

Still, these aren't the only benefits. 'MaxRoad' will also:
  • :eek: charge 2x faster (yes, a 1 Megawatt burst charge rate is possible)
  • o_O 2x bty cycle life (3000 cycles @ 800 mi is 2.4 million miles)
  • :D use zero Cobalt (free of conflict minerals)
And that's just with Gen 1 'Maxcells' which have already demonstated +20% energy density vs current state-of-the-art Lithium battery cells (300 Wh/kg vs 250):

Maxwell.DryElectrodeTech.Specs.png


Maxwell has further identified a path to a 100% improvement for 2nd Generation 'Maxcells' (see table above). That gives Roadster a 1,350 mi range at highway speed, or 1,200 mi @ 'MadMax' speed. Thunder road? :mad:

Yes, it is truely faster living through better chemistry: "Most exciting product line up of any company". Indeed, I wonder what Elon meant. :cool:

Cheers!
 
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I put all of that data plus Q3 2016 in a spreadsheet and came out with....basically randomness. I don't really see anything helpful from it. It may go up, down, or sideways this time as it has in the past. Having said that, the market is obviously forward looking. Deliveries were disappointing in Q1 causing everyone to lower financial estimates. Only way I see this ER causing a big drop is if it is actually much worse than everyone thought. Chance of a negative surprise seems pretty low. Chance of a positive surprise seems low. CC will be important as usual. Market is forward looking. If what Elon says indicates production and deliveries getting back on track soon with 2H profitable then there may actually be a climb from this ER. Given the negative expectations, I don't have much fear going into this one.
Depends on your time horizon.

To me the main takeaway was that even if the price goes down in couple of weeks SP is back to previous day's close. Also the extremes tend to come quickly (3 to 4 days). This is useful info for options.
 
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Question for LEAP option experts.... I bought a lot of LEAPS last December with Jan 2020 exp., 250SP. They are currently down 57%. If the stock quickly recovers to 350, I'll be ok. But if it doesn't, when is the best time to roll them to 2021 before time decay starts to really get me? Also do "wash sales" rules apply to rolling options?
In general it is best to roll from a higher leverage option (2020) to a lower leverage option (2021) when you think the SP is at a high. If you want to take some (more) risk, you could sell when the IV is high (like before ER) and buy when the IV is low (and SP is lower as well).

Yes, wash sale rules apply. In general any and every option for an underlying stock will be considered substantially same. This is according to sites I've read - not actual tax consultant advice.
 
Have an idea for Tesla and just tweeted this to Elon.

What do you guys think? Retweet if you like it so Elon can see.


@elonmusk Hi, Elon, what about route-recording function in @tesla, like "Fog of World" app from @ollixsoft
fogofworld.com/en/
Could be called TeslaMark or TeslaPrint.
That would be supercool!
And chronological time-lapse of recorded routes would be even better.

Mars ☰mperor on Twitter
 
Have an idea for Tesla and just tweeted this to Elon.

What do you guys think? Retweet if you like it so Elon can see.


@elonmusk Hi, Elon, what about route-recording function in @tesla, like "Fog of World" app from @ollixsoft
fogofworld.com/en/
Could be called TeslaMark or TeslaPrint.
That would be supercool!
And chronological time-lapse of recorded routes would be even better.

Mars ☰mperor on Twitter

And since unlike in phones, GPS is always on in every Tesla, route recording shouldn't cost extra power.
Plus, you can opt to turn it off at any time.