Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maitri982]

Well, up until, what, yesterday? Absolutely everyone was still convinced Elon was full of it for saying that LiDAR was a waste of time. Then Cornel figured out that, hey, normal cameras can work just fine for depth if they’re placed at the top of the windshield instead of near the bumper. Everything they found proved Elon absolutely right, down to where Tesla put their cameras on the car(I don’t believe they addressed B-pillar cameras, but give them time and they’ll figure out that lateral movement gives depth as well).

He was dead wrong when he said FSD was solved problem. It wasn't and he knew it.

But hey...I am big Musk fan but that doesnt mean he is not full of it sometimes. He is. The fact that Lidar is not needed and he may be right on that does not mean he is right on everything. And the cornell headline does not prove anything BTW...early work on even single camera distance estimation was done like 10 years ago by researchers. Nothing really new in that headline.

But as I said in my post i believe they are onto something with their FSD approach and that the market could be very surprised if/when this comes because no one believes him on this topic.

 

[neroden]

Nine months ago Customer Deposits were $942 million. At 3/31/19, Customer Deposits were $768.3 million. That's over an 18% decline despite recently opening the reservation window for SR+s/SRs in early March, and for MYs in mid-March

"Customer deposits primarily consisted of cash payments from customers at the time they place an order or reservation for a vehicle or an energy product and any additional payments up to the point of delivery or the completion of installation, including the fair values of any customer trade-in vehicles that are applicable toward a new vehicle purchase."
​

In prior filings, Tesla has stated they will not ship cars to foreign jurisdictions until paid in full, including applicable duties, taxes and tariffs.

The decline in deposits may not have been necessarily caused by lower demand, but lower demand should not be ignored as one of several possible explanations.

I think the most likely reason for decline in deposits is that Tesla has, through incompetence and chaos, proven to customers that placing a deposit doesn't get you a damn thing, not even priority in line. I'm surprised they're as high as they are.

This was a very serious mistake. Reservation deposits were a good source of cash flow for Tesla. It's dead because Tesla failed to honor reservation priority, and I mean catastrophically failed to -- someone making a fresh order for an identical configuration in the same delivery location was getting their car ahead of a person who'd had their reservation for two years and configured as soon as possible.

 

[30seconds]

just another reminder that the Model3 is a better car than the best that the Germans offer and for a lower price
Tesla Model 3 Performance Crushes Fossil BMW M3 Around Race Track | CleanTechnica

 

[StealthP3D]

I mean I get the whole greedy when others are fearful thing and it makes sense here. I'll probably be buying something after a few days here. But, also, let's be clear. Warren Buffet would not touch Tesla with a 10 foot pole at this point.

Let's be clear here:

Warren Buffet Missed out on:
MSFT
QCOM
AAPL
GOOG
AMZN
and, yes, to date, TSLA.

 

[traxila]

Leading Premium Electric Car Manufacturer in dominant position. Check.

Leading battery manufacturer in the world even with curtailed production. Check.

Only foreign OEM in world to own 100% of a factory that is growing like a weed to produce electric cars for the most populous country that is in the lead for the cars of the future.
Check.

Producer of leading autonomous driving software in the world for cars in actual production and perhaps overall by a large margin.
Check.

Most exciting lineup of future products all coming out in next three years of any OEM.
Check.

Most hated company by largest number of trillion dollar industries. Check.

Most volatile stock price of any 30 billion (wasn't it 50?) plus market cap company.
Check.

Company most likely to either go bust or take over its industries. Check.

 

[KSilver2000]

Young families will gobble up the Model Y at an unbelievable rate. I'm not in love with any of the Tesla designs, but I know with absolute certainty this one will sell. It's exactly what they want.

And why not the X? More luggage room (a lot more).

 

[Singuy]

I forgot about that slight from Elon during the event. I cringed at the time. Definitely a humiliating thing for him to do to the presenter, who seemed quite polished. I'm also quite certain that goes on way too often with Elon, and it's not a good look.

But then he listens to his followers, joe nobody on twitter. It's very weird. I have seen his position swayed by good counter arguments on twitter. So not sure how king of the hill he is. Yes I did feel a little cringy as well when he just interrupted the presenter like that.

 

[pnungesser]

I may have missed it, but was there any mention in either the ER or CC about future revenue from the pooling with Fiat Chrysler?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

And why not the X? More luggage room (a lot more).

As part of a young family: Cost. If I had had unlimited funds, I’d have bought an X instead of the Y. I don’t, and the Y gives everything I need for a price I can actually afford.

 

[mongo]

I may have missed it, but was there any mention in either the ER or CC about future revenue from the pooling with Fiat Chrysler?

Asked on the call and received a 'no comment, confidential' response.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

But then he listens to his followers, joe nobody on twitter. It's very weird. I have seen his position swayed by good counter arguments on twitter. So not sure how king of the hill he is. Yes I did feel a little cringy as well when he just interrupted the presenter like that.

He listens to smart ideas and arguments and puts down dumb ones that don’t make sense. Regardless of who is giving either one.

 

[DaveT]

FSD price increase coming May 1st… about $3000

FSD price increase won’t be $3000, will be $1000
FSD price increase won’t be May 1st, will be May 10th

On May 8th or 9th, FSD price increase won't be May 10th, will be May 15th.

In July, oops FSD price increase was mistake. Back to original price.

Go figure.

 

[brian45011]

End of quarter cash was $2.2B, but Tesla delivered nearly half of the cars this quarter in the last 10 days, representing over $2B revenue only coming in quite late in the quarter. It might have been that the inter-quarter cash as I calculated it halfway through here was even an overestimation...

Interestingly, interest income rose slightly between Q4 and Q1, more or less in line with a slight increase in returns on safe short term investments. That implies that inter-quarter cash for Q4 and Q1 were very comparable. Yet end-of-quarter cash reported is dramatically different ($3.7B versus $2.2B). Any thoughts on how to square these two facts?

Superficial perhaps, but this didn't help the cash balance:

 

[StealthP3D]

I agree, but let's remember Karpathy was hired because he agrees with Musk on this. Nobody who thought LIDAR was worth exploring had a chance of getting the job.

Remember, Karpathy is one of the world's foremost experts in LIDAR. He came to the conclusion that LIDAR is not needed through his extensive experience. And Musk has his own expertise in LIDAR. He spearheaded the effort that developed the custom LIDAR solution used for space docking. He wouldn't champion LIDAR for that purpose if he had inexplicable hate of LIDAR.

 

[Icer]

Ready to pull the trigger
247 is taunting me
Jan '17 price.

Stock historically has done a nice roll up, down, repeat
Since Jan, flattened out a bit, not bouncing back
Next?
Dont know, but 247 is taunting me.
*
There was supposed to be an SEC update today?
Where is it?

 

[Anstandswauwau]

FSD price increase coming May 1st… about $3000

FSD price increase won’t be $3000, will be $1000
FSD price increase won’t be May 1st, will be May 10th

On May 8th or 9th, FSD price increase won't be May 10th, will be May 15th.

In July, oops FSD price increase was mistake. Back to original price.

Go figure.

Rated funny cuz it's true.

Unfortunately.

 

[Don TLR]

ARK enjoyed the sale pricing

 

[StealthP3D]

And why not the X? More luggage room (a lot more).

The Model X sold very well for its price range. The Model Y is so much more affordable it will sell like crazy.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The new suspension system seems to be getting little air time, buried under the avalanche of earnings stories. But it’s a big deal, right? Isn’t this a first, a use of AI and machine learning to predict the lay of the road ahead and actively counter the bumps for the ultimate smooth ride? People who want the best will pay top dollar for that.

I’ve just reread the Tesla blog on this and it’s not active, but adaptive suspension. I guess active will be the next iteration.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

FSD price increase coming May 1st… about $3000

FSD price increase won’t be $3000, will be $1000
FSD price increase won’t be May 1st, will be May 10th

On May 8th or 9th, FSD price increase won't be May 10th, will be May 15th.

In July, oops FSD price increase was mistake. Back to original price.

Go figure.

*sigh* They need to plan this stuff out better. Somebody should have realized that: “Hey, you’re planning on increasing the cost of FSD on the same day you’re planning on allowing RHD countries to order... that might just maybe piss some people off” *before* these dates were made public.