Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[srius]

EV Sales: China March 2019

Thanks! The China misery M3 number explains why Q1 delivery numbers were so far below the "logical & evidence-based" projections in the TMC board. China was ~10,000 below the educated guess (5,300 vs 15,000). It's beyond reasoning that Tesla could have messed up the deliveries so badly - in a country that the company already has distribution set up to deliver S & X.

 

[anthonyj]

FSD price increase coming May 1st… about $3000

FSD price increase won’t be $3000, will be $1000
FSD price increase won’t be May 1st, will be May 10th

On May 8th or 9th, FSD price increase won't be May 10th, will be May 15th.

In July, oops FSD price increase was mistake. Back to original price.

Go figure.

Large institutions see this as another reason to sell. There is just so much confusion. Why? Just why. Pretty soon Elon will lose credibility with customers. It’s just silly and creates unnecessary fud

 

[mongo]

I’ve just reread the Tesla blog on this and it’s not active, but adaptive suspension. I guess active will be the next iteration.

It sort of already has active suspension. The air shock on each corner is controlled independently and the car adjusts height based on location and driving style. Not the fastest system, but more than just adjustable damping...

Fully Adaptive Suspension
We’ve also upgraded our air suspension system for Model S and Model X with fully-adaptive damping, giving it an ultra-cushioned feel when cruising on the highway or using Autopilot, and a responsive, exhilarating confidence during dynamic driving. Unlike other manufacturers, our suspension software is developed completely in-house, using a predictive model to anticipate how the damping will need to be adjusted based on the road, speed, and other vehicle and driver inputs. The system constantly adapts by sensing the road and adjusting for driver behavior, automatically softening for more pronounced road inputs and firming for aggressive driving. We’ve also improved the leveling of the system while cruising, keeping the car low to optimize aerodynamic drag. As with all of Tesla’s in-house software, the adaptive suspension can receive over-the-air updates, allowing us to enable all Model S and Model X customers to have the most advanced suspension technology at all times.

 

[dqd88]

Guys let’s be honest or at least open to the idea that the Model Y, generally speaking, if you ask most ppl, does not look good.

You're in Houston. that pretty much explains it

 

[capster]

Well, up until, what, yesterday? Absolutely everyone was still convinced Elon was full of it for saying that LiDAR was a waste of time. Then Cornel figured out that, hey, normal cameras can work just fine for depth if they’re placed at the top of the windshield instead of near the bumper. Everything they found proved Elon absolutely right, down to where Tesla put their cameras on the car(I don’t believe they addressed B-pillar cameras, but give them time and they’ll figure out that lateral movement gives depth as well).

Wait!!

Whazzat stereoscopy?!!?? Evolution puts the eyes up top? Emissive sensors don’t predominate in nature?!

Pshawww!

What’s a high falutin’ "first principle" any way?

/s

 

[Skryll]

And why not the X? More luggage room (a lot more).

Because it costs twice as much?

 

[jerry33]

FWIW after working at a self-driving company for 3 years, I agree.. Camera is sufficient for self-driving, and LiDAR is overkill in the long term. But that doesn't mean that it doesn't make things much easier. If a company working on camera-only tech. can produce self-driving faster than one that relies on LiDAR, I'll be amazed. It won't be because Cameras are easier, but probably because the other competitors are much slower at adopting new technologies.

Cameras are only easier if you can get the data. LiDAR is quicker to get a working demo up and running.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

FSD price increase coming May 1st… about $3000

FSD price increase won’t be $3000, will be $1000
FSD price increase won’t be May 1st, will be May 10th

On May 8th or 9th, FSD price increase won't be May 10th, will be May 15th.

In July, oops FSD price increase was mistake. Back to original price.

Go figure.

Wait... “for those unable to order by May 1”... this might be a delay for RHD countries only...

 

[kengchang]

Thanks! The China misery M3 number explains why Q1 delivery numbers were so far below the "logical & evident-based" projections in the TMC board. China was ~10,000 below the educated guess (5,300 vs 15,000). It's beyond reasoning that Tesla could have messed up the deliveries so badly - in a country that the company already has distribution set up to deliver S & X.

Cars were stuck in port due to mislabeling.

 

[PANN]

Thanks! The China misery M3 number explains why Q1 delivery numbers were so far below the "logical & evident-based" projections in the TMC board. China was ~10,000 below the educated guess (5,300 vs 15,000). It's beyond reasoning that Tesla could have messed up the deliveries so badly - in a country that the company already has distribution set up to deliver S & X.

Agree. I think the China Customs clearance delays caused it, but the Wave is the root cause as explained on the call. Glad that they will take short term pain in Q2 to unwind the wave.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Nine months ago Customer Deposits were $942 million. At 3/31/19, Customer Deposits were $768.3 million. That's over an 18% decline despite recently opening the reservation window for SR+s/SRs in early March, and for MYs in mid-March

"Customer deposits primarily consisted of cash payments from customers at the time they place an order or reservation for a vehicle or an energy product and any additional payments up to the point of delivery or the completion of installation, including the fair values of any customer trade-in vehicles that are applicable toward a new vehicle purchase."
​

In prior filings, Tesla has stated they will not ship cars to foreign jurisdictions until paid in full, including applicable duties, taxes and tariffs.

The decline in deposits may not have been necessarily caused by lower demand, but lower demand should not be ignored as one of several possible explanations.

Many people placed deposits for model 3. We all observed that in the end it made little difference to one’s place in the queue. For model Y, fewer thus see a need to place a deposit when they can wait till it ramps and order on line then. Perfectly logical.

 

[kengchang]

Agree. I think the China Customs clearance delays caused it, but the Wave is the root cause as explained on the call. Glad that they will take short term pain in Q2 to unwind the wave.

Ya, it's just not fesible to have delivery staff standing around for 2 months without car to sell then work outta their ass in the last month. It has to stop.

 

[M3Rider]

I think the most likely reason for decline in deposits is that Tesla has, through incompetence and chaos, proven to customers that placing a deposit doesn't get you a damn thing, not even priority in line. I'm surprised they're as high as they are.

This was a very serious mistake. Reservation deposits were a good source of cash flow for Tesla. It's dead because Tesla failed to honor reservation priority, and I mean catastrophically failed to -- someone making a fresh order for an identical configuration in the same delivery location was getting their car ahead of a person who'd had their reservation for two years and configured as soon as possible.

That's not true, within the trim level being offered&region, the reservation did count to get your order delivered faster. There were few exceptions, but not a rule. Mostly, if someone canceled they'd release the car to a random buyer.

So far, the current Y price is $1k more than the order I put in. So, it's not "placing a deposit doesn't get you a damn thing".

 

[brian45011]

Currently lithium batteries are not economically recyclable, unless they have a lot of cobalt. .

At the current state of technology, "recycling" Li-Ion cells (regardless of CO content) does not include recovering the metals in sufficient purity for reuse in new cells. "Re-cycling" means melting down the cells to produce, among the by-products, an amalgam of the elemental metals that is difficult/un-economical to separate, so it is stored by re-cyclers in anticipation that soon an economical, environmentally benign process (smelting is not) can be developed. Perhaps JB and Redwood Recycling will find a solution.

 

[kbM3]

*sigh* no, count the GA lines

Regardless of the number of GA lines, I remember Elon stated they think they can increase production from the original 5k / week to 7k / week with very little extra capital expenditure.

Don’t you recall this? If so, do you not think they can do it?

 

[KSilver2000]

Because it costs twice as much?

Okay.
Many people have chimed in. I get it. Obviously, it costs more. But, let’s not over exaggerate.

The non-performance AWD model Y in basic config with autopilot is $55K.
The entry model X with similar EPA rating in basic config with autopilot is $83K.

50% more. Not 100% more.

 

[jerry33]

And why not the X? More luggage room (a lot more).

Price. Young families are struggling these days.

 

[jerry33]

I may have missed it, but was there any mention in either the ER or CC about future revenue from the pooling with Fiat Chrysler?

Yes, the answer was "It's confidential".

 

[jerry33]

Ready to pull the trigger
247 is taunting me
Jan '17 price.

Stock historically has done a nice roll up, down, repeat
Since Jan, flattened out a bit, not bouncing back
Next?
Dont know, but 247 is taunting me.
*
There was supposed to be an SEC update today?
Where is it?

They have till midnight.

 

[M3Rider]

FSD price increase coming May 1st… about $3000

FSD price increase won’t be $3000, will be $1000
FSD price increase won’t be May 1st, will be May 10th

On May 8th or 9th, FSD price increase won't be May 10th, will be May 15th.

In July, oops FSD price increase was mistake. Back to original price.

Go figure.

I think he changed his mind on $3k when he saw the underwhelming reaction to the autonomy day.
In his mind it is a done deal and a lot of value that you can extract a lot of revenue from, but SP reaction showed that nobody believes it until it is done and working and, therefore, would not be willing to pay more for it just based on some projections.
That was my first reaction to the price hike - why, does he really think someone would want to pay more for something that doesn't exist?

May 1st was for US buyers, but then he realized it's not fair to other markets that didn't have a chance to order it yet, so now May 10.

Yes, seems like some of these numbers he shoots out prematurely without considering all permutations.

Would be helpful if he consulted w/ someone else to polish these communications.