Is comparing to the NUMMI plant a fair comparison? Isn’t Tesla making more of their own parts (seats, motors, etc) compared to the other manufacturers just putting parts together?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Is comparing to the NUMMI plant a fair comparison? Isn’t Tesla making more of their own parts (seats, motors, etc) compared to the other manufacturers just putting parts together?
Losing what I have in TSLA is not going to bankrupt me, but still. No one likes the feeling of losing money. Better yet, no one likes the feeling that they could be buying the shares at a lower cost basis, or having their money sit in an company not making any money for 3 years (not that I have, but a lot of people here made nothing since the Model 3 reveal).
I understand most bulls are extremely disapponted at Q1 results, me too. But looking at the bright side, sentiments will improve next week when April sales figures are reported by InsideEV and others around May 1-3. The CFO Zachary already said on the call it will be a all-time record 1st month of quarter (hopefully by a large margin).
But personally I really hope Elon stop talking the P&D metric, Tesla already proved it can mass produce affordable EVs, so stop talking about it publicly unless necessary (only in quarterly letter / call), certainly not on twitter. Instead, talk about software, autopilot, fsd, streaming, half-million existing user base and growing -- making the cars as affordable as possible and making money on software and services (like AWS, like App Store...).
But personally I really hope Elon stop talking the P&D metric, Tesla already proved it can mass produce affordable EVs, so stop talking about it publicly unless necessary (only in quarterly letter / call), certainly not on twitter. Instead, talk about software, autopilot, fsd, streaming, half-million existing user base and growing -- making the cars as affordable as possible and making money on software and services (like AWS, like App Store...).
bdy0627
Active Member
Yes they indicated April deliveries are at a record high for the first month of any quarter, so the numbers should look fantastic for April. We do have that to look forward to. When does the monthly estimate come out from InsideEVs?
On their site it says beginning May 1st. This month it took a long time to post the Tesla estimate.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Uhhh. This is the worst. This basically confirms the downward channel will continue.
Worst case scenario for every outcome. Now we move on to the next grim rule of investing. Bad news comes in triplets.
Looks more like they paid back much of the draws. Any connection to the re-evaluations/write-offs of RVGs and the residual for TALTs A&B?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think technology has advanced.
http://www.retrievtech.com/recycling/lithium-ion
Fortum Process Recycles 80% Of EV Battery Materials | CleanTechnica
@verygreen any word on your statement of all the things coming? Has Tesla spilled all of the beans already?
bdy0627
Active Member
That's a good question and I don't know the answer. Is it unfair to compare Tesla's car production efficiency with NUMMI's? Calling @neroden, @KarenRei, @Fact Checking.
The judge pretty much already cleared Elon. The negotiation is non news. Anyone really expect this negotiation has Elon not being the CEO as a possible outcome? This is all they investors care about.
ZachF
Active Member
You can't really compare without knowing what % of value added it does. Tesla is a lot more vertically integrated than the old NUMMI plant was.
My guess is this is equivalent to store “sales” as a demand lever, a good reason for folks on the fence to hit the buy button. Dealers do this every other day and noone complain? Nothing to worry about.
Durant was in and out of control of GM 2 or was it 3 times?
Ford at one point talked of starting another company,
to drive the stock down and buy control.
100 million I think it cost him.
Kaiser was stubborn, headstrong, wouldnt listen
Shied away from CAPEX
Put forklift motors in the cars.
Not an issue with world beater tesla.
*
Nothing is off the table in this biz.
Why wouldnt goog or Apple make a move?
Silicon Valley egos?
*
M3 vs M3
A Little light lunch
Fun to imagine how livid they are about this
Ford at one point talked of starting another company,
to drive the stock down and buy control.
100 million I think it cost him.
Kaiser was stubborn, headstrong, wouldnt listen
Shied away from CAPEX
Put forklift motors in the cars.
Not an issue with world beater tesla.
*
Nothing is off the table in this biz.
Why wouldnt goog or Apple make a move?
Silicon Valley egos?
*
M3 vs M3
A Little light lunch
Fun to imagine how livid they are about this
Attachments
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The statement said progress is being made. The judge seems reasonable.
Krugerrand
Meow
Lol, you have an oddly selective view. Yesterday Elon said the stock market is manic depressive. I think this proves he reads this forum.
Firstly, he deliberately focused on US deliveries in 2018H2 in order to maximize US residents access to incentives. I believe his words last year were "We will do the right thing". That was a choice, and was motivated by good will. Same as Tesla sending powerwalls on priority delivery to Puerto Rico. The man is altruistic beyond doubt.
2019Q1 was a good plan, with a reasonable chance of success. Biggest hiccup was Panasonic under-delivering bty cells. To remedy that, Tesla will buy Maxwell becoming the sole source of the world's most advanced lithium battery cells. But it'll take time. Elon's will take that time. Will you? He says 'Maxwell bty day' will be later this year or next. That's how long it'll take. For reals.
Second biggest hiccup was delayed deliveries. 1-time teething pains can be expected, but not planned for in advance. But now those extra Euros and Yuan are safely in the bank, and production, shipments, and deliveries will go forward in a steadier stream.
Tesla doesn't need a capital raise urgently, they started Q2 with $2.2 B in cash and guided for positive FCF in Q2. With GF3/Shanghai already funded from local ABS bonds, there's no financial pressure there either, just tremendous latent demand for the best EV in the world. Let's wait and see what capital requirements are for Model Y production. Should be decided in a few weeks. Then the capital requirements can be assessed.
As far as "seriously raised uncertainty about the sustainable demand levels", Tesla was working on a major S/X production refit throughout Q1. So the problem is just they didn't tell everyone in advance? Osbourne here often? Or is it supposed to happened overnight?
Look I understand you feel disappointed in Q1 but both Elon and Tesla are working in good faith as fast as possible. NOT ONE SINGLE other company on earth made even remotely similar progress in even the past 10 years as Tesla did in the last 2 quarters.
Tesla and Elon should be congratulated for their achievement, not micro-managed by Thursday-morning Quarterbacks. Elon also this has long-standing guidance for investors: "If you don't like volatility, sell our stock".
Cheers!
God (Zeus, Hercules, Groot, Oprah, Ryan Reynolds - whomever you follow) bless you!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oh man, could it get any worse? Where do you see SP bottoming out tomorrow, $125? $115?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
ya just not in a good mood. TA wise the delay means down channel continues and the positives from a resolution of such a thing diminishes overtime as it fades from the news.
What reagents/compounds are used in "... technology developed by Finnish company Crisolteq, Fortum ...[uses for]...chemical precipitation methodology that allows these minerals to be recovered and delivered to battery manufacturers for use in new batteries?
Existing {un-advanced?} technology has relied on Pyrometallurgy, which "is a branch of extractive metallurgy. It consists of the thermal treatment of minerals and metallurgical ores and concentrates to bring about physical and chemical transformations in the materials to enable recovery of valuable metals."
Even the press release from Fortum Recycling and Waste cites only "a recycling rate of more than 80%" There is a major distinction in waste recovery between "re-cycling" and "recover-reuse" A large percentage of the Li-Ion components "re-cycled" are simply road fill compounds. Do you have any links to peer-reviewed independent scientific assessments by respected chemists or physicists of the efficacy and economics of the Crisolteq technology?
On a related matter, did you notice the share price of UMICY, a Belgian supplier of cathode chemicals, got hammered this week?
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
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