Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

I just read it. Early on he states without any proof that lidar+vision gets there faster, damn the cost.

You misread:

One first answer is that most teams do not feel this is the time to lower costs. This is the time to have maximum safety, and get it as soon as possible and be first to market.​

He's giving the view of "most teams". He does not say they are correct. Much like when he says:

...computer vision has to be so good that it does everything LIDAR can do for you. ...If it can do all that, then you don't need LIDAR.​

he's giving Musk's view. The whole point of the article is to present each side's view. He later adds some of his thoughts.

 

[Todd Burch]

To play the devil's advocate here, let me ask the question:
Did the Tesla really check to see that there was no vehicle coming at higher speed on that left lane before swerving into it, or did it just get lucky ???
Prior to the collision there were vehicles passing the car on the left lane...

IMO as much as I’d like it to be true, autopilot did not perform this maneuver. Either the driver did it instinctively and doesn’t remember, or he does remember doing it and he’s lying.

If Tesla really had this evasive capability, they would be advertising it left and right.

I have to say it was a well-executed maneuver, assuming the driver knew the lane to the left was empty. If he didn’t, he got very lucky.

But I would put a lot of money on this NOT being an action taken by autopilot. Would LOVE to be wrong.

 

[capster]

Please stop with the FSD speculation. I'm reporting posts as off topic.

Seems to me FSD is a very on-topic topic for investors at the moment, hence Tesla's Autonomy Investors Day.

From what I see, a lot of folks appear to be trying to wrap their heads around its chances of success and probable roll-out schedule in order to make decisions about the stock at this very time.

I've benefited from a lot of the insight from the others posters here. So I thought I'd contribute what I can while FSD is, ah, topical.

That said, I'm long and will just stay that way. I think I know how the story ends. So whatev.

 

[mongo]

IMO as much as I’d like it to be true, autopilot did not perform this maneuver. Either the driver did it instinctively and doesn’t remember, or he does remember doing it and he’s lying.

If Tesla really had this evasive capability, they would be advertising it left and right.

I have to say it was a well-executed maneuver, assuming the driver knew the lane to the left was empty. If he didn’t, he got very lucky.

But I would put a lot of money on this NOT being an action taken by autopilot. Would LOVE to be wrong.

I've been rear ended unexpectedly. In my data point of one, by the time you figure out why your car is handling strangely, you've already crashed. That maneuver looked very much like the Tesla on ice recover one. Though I guess it may have been human plus super traction./ stability control. It would be nice for Tesla to confirm, but if they did, I could see many people testing to see what it will save them from...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Didn't Elon just recently make FSD/robotaxis the main and most important part of the TSLA investment thesis? And wasn't the cap raise investor call largely about this as well? It seems like a relevant and timely topic for this thread as it has huge implications for TSLA both present and future.

EVERYTHING is a timely topic. 80% of this thread today was FSD. It can easily be taken to a thread or threads in the........wait for it.........Automation Forum!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Of course, what I meant was focussing on crashes instead of fatalities or injuries.

I once worked in a safety office for a big steel maker. Rule of thumb: for each 6 sub minor accidents (think bandaid), there was a minor accident. For each 6 minor accidents, there was a major accident. For each 6 major accidents, there was a fatality.
It’s not intuitive, but focusing on reducing sub minor accidents saves lives. This is because safety is a mindset. Once you get everybody thinking safety first, every one of those stats goes down.
Tesla will be focused on reducing interventions, near misses, even situations where the FSD chooses the correct path but does so with a low level of certainty. These will all lead to fewer accidents, which as you suggest, is synonymous with fewer fatalities or injuries.

 

[Sancho]

Didn't Elon just recently make FSD/robotaxis the main and most important part of the TSLA investment thesis? And wasn't the cap raise investor call largely about this as well? It seems like a relevant and timely topic for this thread as it has huge implications for TSLA both present and future.

I agree. Like it or not, Musk has now positioned TSLA as a robotaxi play. In an accelerating manner here on out, every new self-driving development by Tesla and their competitors are going to be relevant to our investment. Anyone who doesn't want endless discussion of autonomous driving should now find somewhere else to spend their time.

But, please, folks, take back-and-forth discussions over technical points to a separate thread. Hopefully the moderators can help enforce this.

 

[lascavarian]

But I would put a lot of money on this NOT being an action taken by autopilot. Would LOVE to be wrong.

That is an interesting point and compelling.

I will note that Tesla just announced the lane correction feature and that is very close to what you are discussing. If the vehicle senses that the vehicle is outside the drive-able space having crossed the center line, it corrects.

It looks to me like the SW determines/projects a "space" that optimizes certain attributes and then attempts to move into that space. It seems to do this in lane changing. It is a useful pattern that could be developed and modified to deliver safer travel.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I agree. Like it or not, Musk has now positioned TSLA as a robotaxi play. In an accelerating manner here on out, every new self-driving development by Tesla and their competitors are going to be relevant to our investment. Anyone who doesn't want endless discussion of autonomous driving should now find somewhere else to spend their time.

But, please, folks, take back-and-forth discussions over technical points to a separate thread. Hopefully the moderators can help enforce this.

Of course robotaxi and FSD as it applies to bottom line or the Master Plan is appropriate, but 90% of the conversation is around it's feasibility or what will/won't work. That *sugar* needs to go.

 

[AlexS]

French April numbers are in: M3 251, S 33, X21
http://www.avere-france.org/Uploads...1171338902e0fe0fb97a8c47a-immats-mai-2019.pdf

 

[oneday]

OT

EVERYTHING is a timely topic. 80% of this thread today was FSD. It can easily be taken to a thread or threads in the........wait for it.........Automation Forum!

Or you can keep it in the Investor Forum and post here Tesla Autonomy Day April 22nd

Or if you don’t like that thread, you could make a general FSD/Robotaxi thread.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I am afraid that getting to FSD first will not help tesla as much as we think. Regulators will almost certainly wait for the pack to catch up before turning the field loose to compete. Haven't we been watching?

US Regulators, quite possibly. Luckily there’s a big wide world out there where Tesla FSD can prove itself.

 

[Pras]

https://electrek.co/2019/05/06/tesla-model-3-autonomously-pickup-owner-iparking-video/

Just saw this electrek posting on enhanced summon video. Cool video but shot using a very poor camera. My question, why can't Tesla create its own videos for share? I agree folks will assume it is fake but at least they will be able to see the demo much better. Over time, as more homemade videos surface, people's doubt will be gone.

 

[gene]

IMO as much as I’d like it to be true, autopilot did not perform this maneuver. Either the driver did it instinctively and doesn’t remember, or he does remember doing it and he’s lying.

If Tesla really had this evasive capability, they would be advertising it left and right.

I have to say it was a well-executed maneuver, assuming the driver knew the lane to the left was empty. If he didn’t, he got very lucky.

But I would put a lot of money on this NOT being an action taken by autopilot. Would LOVE to be wrong.

My Model 3 has done this maneuver once with AP turned off, and with me driving, my wife's Model 3 (which does not have AP) did this same maneuver as well. In my car it was to avoid a bicyclist, in my wife's car it was to avoid a poorly placed concrete barricade. In both cases it was not a full lane change but the car did quickly swerve to the left about two feet and then return to the center.

 

[JusRelax]

That is an interesting point and compelling.

I will note that Tesla just announced the lane correction feature and that is very close to what you are discussing. If the vehicle senses that the vehicle is outside the drive-able space having crossed the center line, it corrects.

It looks to me like the SW determines/projects a "space" that optimizes certain attributes and then attempts to move into that space. It seems to do this in lane changing. It is a useful pattern that could be developed and modified to deliver safer travel.

Hmm, I think you may be on to something:

1. Driver's natural reaction is to swerve left (or impact of rear end caused him to swerve left)
2. Lane correction features activate but can't maintain current lane, continues swerve into adjacent lane
3. Lane correction then successfully tries to maintain the new lane it is in

This would explain how the move seems so precise, not overshooting to go two lanes over, etc.

 

[Fact Checking]

Just take the topic from today Tesla Model 3 saved me : teslamotors

Not many believe that the driver could have done the maneuver safely(he doesn't remember)

If you look closely at the video you'll see how the Tesla curiously centered on the middle lane at 0:08 before it went back into the original right side lane again. There's very few drivers who'll have the skills (and interest) to perform two evasive maneuvers in 3 seconds the whole incident took and center on the lane they are spending about 1 second in ...

But to the FSD code driving the car it's just another workday in the computer: there were ~800 milliseconds spent in the middle lane which is plenty of time to center on the lane.

It also takes significant skill and steel nerves not to overreact here, to not steer to the left too much, to not oversteer and fishtail. Instead all three legs of the driving maneuver were performed almost perfectly, taking the dynamic properties of such a violent maneuver perfectly into account.

Based on that I'd guess there's a significant chance that this was a variant of the "Emergency Lane Keep Assist" FSD feature, which was activated last week IIRC.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

OT

Or you can keep it in the Investor Forum and post here Tesla Autonomy Day April 22nd

Or if you don’t like that thread, you could make a general FSD/Robotaxi thread.

The Automation Day thread is about Automation Day. The Investors Forum is for threads related to investing. FSD, Robotaxi, and all other automation discussion not directly related to investing belong in the.............Automation Forum. That's why there's an Automation Forum.

 

[Drax7]

by continuously raising the premium you have to pay each month

Exactly, and that’s why I ask the question.
And frankly it feels ridiculous.
Just a feeling for now .

 

[aubreymcfato]

I really don't know if Tesla will be the only player in 2023 regarding robotaxis. In Elon time, 4 years alre like 12.
I do know that every new day Tesla has more cars on the road, getting new data, getting better at solving problems.
Right now, what matters is execution, we have enough visionary projects for a decade.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Before I had my Model 3 I felt pretty much the same. Have had it for two months and am blown away, both by the car (even better than I expected) and by the responses of people around me.

Just yesterday, I was charging and young guy asked me if this was a Model 3 and was really hyped just that I let him sit in the car. People I gave test rides to and who had not been exposed to Tesla before called it a quantum leap as compared to cars they knew (towards others, not just me), one friend asked, "Why are not more people driving this car?" (all seriously/naively). People want their picture taken with them in the car. They start figuring how they could fit it into their live when their old car is done. Yesterday I gave a test ride to a good friend who is an architect and really liked the design. Wanted to show it to his dad right away who is really into cars and he was all amazed, too.

I know this is all anecdotal - but I tend to be a tech early adopter and have never had anything trigger a response like that. I do a lot of road cycling and was one of the first to have a Garmin GPS bike computer. People laughed at me in the beginning, nothing like with the Model 3. Still, a couple of years later *everyone* had one.

I think we shouldn judge demand on a short term basis. If Teslas sold will ever go down year over year, that´s when I`d start thinking.

Great post. It paints a rosy picture for sales ‘going viral’. The FUD onslaught becomes increasingly ineffective as the ‘bums on seats’ effect becomes more powerful by the day. People trust what they experience, trust what they are told by friends and rels, ahead of what they read, assuming they actually read mainstream press.

Of course it also paints a rosy picture for TSLA. Those viral sales are part of it, but remember that a percentage of these converts will be investors. Every day, more retail investors. Every day that cars are delivered and the stock doesn’t move is a day closer to the tipping point. Tick tock.