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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You know. It would be interesting if the Tesla Semi was the product that really revolutionized Tesla’a brand in the US. I mean, semis are serious iron and if potential customers are working with Tesla to optimize that vehicle, it could be massively successful. No one is going to talk sh*t about these beasts when that start hauling. And there won’t be any of that “fanboi” crap either. Semi customers are in it to win it. If the range, charge times, and cost of ownership works for them, who is going to argue?
Can't agree more, semi is where the hard numbers win. I even think it makes sense to delay the pick up truck just let the semi truck blow people's mind. That's gonna remove a lot of roadblocks for pickup adoption
 
I could be wrong... I hope they delay Semi and pickup truck. Semi takes a lot of batteries, also margin won't be good in small scale. Maybe hand build a few dozen for self use, continue to refine it.

Deffinatly build a bunch for internal use/ testing.
At 2kWh/mile ($0.10/kWh solar) vs 10 MPG ($4 a gallon diesel) , they save $0.20 a mile. Fremont to GF1 is 520 round trip, so $104 savings per trip. Two trips per day, $204 saving a day, $70k a year. With no traffic, you can hit 3 trips per day for $100k savings a year per truck.

Truckers can drive a maximum of 11 hours before a required 10-hour break (in the US; EU is different but similar). Semi needs to be able to drive for at least 10 hours straight and recharge to 100% in 10 hours.

I'm not sure existing Superchargers can support this, especially if they take stalls away from Tesla drivers.

Fremont to Giga and back can be done in one shift. By staggering trucks, the driver can take a charged one back right away. 500 mile version can probably do the whole trip on one Fremont charge due to heavier load on the Giga to Fremont downhill run. However, it is probably better $ wise to use the 300 mile version and top off at both ends.

Other hub spoke runs don't need to use a full driver 11 hour day. No need to meet the long long haul trucking needs right away.
Recharging in 10 hours is a non issue.
 
I could be wrong... I hope they delay Semi and pickup truck. Semi takes a lot of batteries, also margin won't be good in small scale. Maybe hand build a few dozen for self use, continue to refine it.

1. Focus on FSD. They need to put huge effort into FSD development. Money should not be a factor to cause delay.

2. Build Model Y when they are ready. Model Y will likely to have better margin than Model 3, also the cost to bring Y to the market is relatively small. If the total demand for Y and 3 is much higher than 3 alone (I assume that's the case), it will bring down both Model Y and Model 3's cost.

3. Take care of service and parts supply.

4. Actively communicate with owners, investors and general public. Word of mouth is great, but the internet is much more powerful. There are 3.2 billion internet users. Tesla should find ways to utilize it. Tesla's scale is approaching 30 billion dollars a year, trying hard to save a few dollars in this area is foolish.
I disagree with your Semi comments. I think they need to accelerate that development. It sounds like customers are lining up.

I think pickup will be a hard sell.
 
Even if current demand is strong enough to keep up with production, Tesla needs to be thinking about the future. How many TSLA investors/fans have posted here about personal experiences where friends decided against purchasing a Tesla vehicle because of some incorrect belief? Tesla needs to control the narrative better so that it continues to be the Apple of the car world going forward. They need to be sure that most of the population wants a Tesla in the next 2-10 years as production really increases, even if they can't afford one. They have to appeal to more than 10 year old boys who point and scream when they see a Tesla. They need to appeal to those kid's parents and grandparents.
 
So for me, until hard evidence says otherwise, I’ll continue to place the source for the media negativity on Tesla largely on the reporters themselves.

But we often see misleading headlines too, which is a different role. There are also complaints departments and feedback loops which should aim to correct any imbalance or bias in the next article. No, the barrel is rotten, not just a few apples.
 
It just doesn’t do what we need it to do as good as the Leaf.
You keep repeating this ad nauseam, but every time I have seen you describe your needs it seems to me that the Tesla's shortcomings are entirely a) short term; and b) in your imagination. A Chademo adapter make all your perceived problems go away, so it's clearly short term. And until that point, the workarounds are needed rarely and maybe not at all, and are easy besides.

Do what you want, but please stop pretending it makes even a little sense.
 
Even if current demand is strong enough to keep up with production, Tesla needs to be thinking about the future. How many TSLA investors/fans have posted here about personal experiences where friends decided against purchasing a Tesla vehicle because of some incorrect belief? Tesla needs to control the narrative better so that it continues to be the Apple of the car world going forward. They need to be sure that most of the population wants a Tesla in the next 2-10 years as production really increases, even if they can't afford one. They have to appeal to more than 10 year old boys who point and scream when they see a Tesla. They need to appeal to those kid's parents and grandparents.

how much more angry would they be if they had to wait months for a car?
the first and early adopters will put up with that, perhaps some of the early majority. but the mainstream won’t. that was my point about not needing to advertise. it may actually hurt them. both points are arguable. but..they need more product to fill the orders that would come for a well organized and effective ad campaign

i agree you definitely want to be in demand, and have a bit of scarcity. but you also don’t want to be at the opposite end of that and flat out have the same situation you had/have with powerpacks
and powerwalls happen with 3s and Ys

again, in that product offering(stationary), it’s still early adopters...once those are fulfilled, and the
the next wave get slightly better cost/benefit via technological enhancement, the % of those in that demographic will not deal with the wait either.

batteries first....need to get to a certain run rate before they can really turn the floodgates on.
 
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Any SP guesses for tomorrow? the way the stock fell towards the end of the day on Friday seemed scary.
Tesla is really oversold on the hourly and daily (RSI). May have some downside tomorrow early am and pre market fear mongering my shorts but think we end the day up green; perhaps with a hammer of sorts. Let’s see. Place your bets.
 
The correct way to have done S&X refresh would have been slightly before releasing 3. But Tesla is not big enough to pull this off.

Now that they refreshed S&X, they are not going to do an internal refresh until around the time Y comes out (if that). The current refresh should be enough to bring S&X demand back up for another year.

EV early adopters are in the main analytical types, more likely to be swayed by the objective than the subjective. Screen position, trim, meh - won’t affect the order rate in any meaningful way. Range, acceleration, charge rate however, the things Raven addressed, clearly do matter, as we saw last quarter. I don’t think we will see that again.
 
Can you be more specific? What does the Eplus have that the Model 3 doesn't?

Sure. It wasn’t one single thing. But a scaling of plus and minuses that were important to us. Soooo

The model 3 uses a proprietary charging system which isn’t well supported in the areas where we travel. This was a tough one for us as we also have a property in Palm Springs and it would have been nice to use the Supercharger systym for our once per year trip between BC and Palm Springs. But we do a lot of driving in BC and going back to level two charging on road trips would suck. Supercharger support is well covered on the main BC routes but that’s not where we travel. CCS and Chademo locations out number Superchargers 10 to 1 in BC and the goverment is expanding the network fast. Our Tesla rep says there is still talk of a Chademo or CCS adapter but I think if there was going to be one it would have come out by now. Added on edit. I believe we are a fringe case in this regard and most BCers wouldn’t have charging issues. Has to do with where we have to go.

A hatchback is a real good fit for us right now. We probably could have made the trunk on the model 3 work but the hatchback is a huge plus for us. A couple years from now we’ll probably still get a model 3 to replace our other car. (We are still on the fence whether to trade in our smart ED or our other Leaf).

Don’t laugh but the heated steering wheel on the Eplus is kind of important for us. We are in our mid fifties and cold winters are starting to bring sore hands. :)

Entry and egress of the Eplus is much easier for us.

The Eplus is a much quieter car than the 3. Really not a big deal and from what I read there are after market products one can get to quiet the model 3 down.

A minor one that I have heard various opinions on but not sure if it’s a real issue. We travel a lot and are gone for months at a time. The leaf can be left for months without any drop in charge. No worries of bricking. Having said that I would think one could just set the Tesla to 60 percent and leave it plugged in.

We are leaf fans from the point of view of reliability. Ours has been bullet proof. I’m sure the model 3 would be fine but the service centre is 500 km away. It won’t stop us from buying a model 3 in a couple years to replace our second car but it is in the back of our mind. We work about 8 months a year but when we work it is pretty much 6 days a week 10 hour days. Rewarding but we absolutely would not have time to bring a car in for maintenance.

There are a ton of things we prefer about the Tesla but this time around the scales tipped to the Eplus.

We’ll continue to support Tesla but not from the drivers seat. Then again if they check off a couple of boxes on the Tesla side before our Eplus arrives who knows.

Honestly it was a tough decision but we need a solution by early next year. So we put our name on an Eplus.
 
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The initial Semi purchasers will be short haul, not long haul. It will take some time before long haul catches on for a variety of reasons, including they will need their own SC network.
Yeah, I believe they'll work with the carriers to have superduperchargers at the destinations for the short hauls initially, that way they may be able to have the carriers pay for a large part. But in the future for long hauls, it would make sense to partner with a quality truck stop entity (or several). In addition to the services normally available, I would hope that the drivers of the Tesla Semis will be as enthusiastic as the car owners, and that can't hurt!
 
Not good for the human race... Isn't this the idiot that bought the lump of coal into the Aus parliament?

OT

Yes. My Sat night was ruined. I will forever wonder if the outcome would have been different if the other bloke, Bill Shorten, had had the courage to take a stand on Adani. Those with long memories know that Bob Hawke came to power because he took a stand to save the Franklin River. History was begging to be repeated.

Regardless of the outcome, we still have the #stopadani fight on our hands. Efforts will now be stepped up.

There was a consolation prize. Ex PM Tony Abbott lost his seat to pro climate action Zali Stegall. One less idiot in power.
 
You keep repeating this ad nauseam, but every time I have seen you describe your needs it seems to me that the Tesla's shortcomings are entirely a) short term; and b) in your imagination. A Chademo adapter make all your perceived problems go away, so it's clearly short term. And until that point, the workarounds are needed rarely and maybe not at all, and are easy besides.

Do what you want, but please stop pretending it makes even a little sense.

Heh heh. Well, as long as it makes sense to us.

Enjoy your Tesla. It’s a great car.
 
I agree. If Elon is as serious about aggressively cutting costs as his email tone suggests, then the Semi should go on hold.

In addition to the costs to get the lines going, the Semi also requires significant updates to the Supercharger network.

Truckers can drive a maximum of 11 hours before a required 10-hour break (in the US; EU is different but similar). Semi needs to be able to drive for at least 10 hours straight and recharge to 100% in 10 hours.

I'm not sure existing Superchargers can support this, especially if they take stalls away from Tesla drivers.
You are kidding, right?
  • They have big corporate customers lined up and closely involved in product development. This is not like a consumer product, where you may focus-group the hell out of it, it is still quite a gamble to develop something that hundreds of thousands of costumers around the world should like. The Semi project is led by a tuck program veteran and is designed to the specification and as per the feedback of the limited number of customers you have in the industry.
  • These customers have ordered a few thousand trucks (cumulative) for validation, but if the math checks out they will make big orders in the future.
  • Related to the above, corporate customers have deep pockets and are much less short sighted and price sensitive to the initial investment than consumers. They lease the fleet and will not care if the truck itself costs e.g. 20% more if the monthly running costs (incl. lease, fuel, maintenance, downtime, etc) means they get a significant cost advantage vs. diesel over the operating life of the vehicles.
  • That's not even considering future cost savings due to platooning and later FSD.
As to your points on investment:
  • They will not need to build production lines capable of 500k cars per year like Model 3, but can leverage any and all experience gained during that project.
  • Many key parts (Drivetrain, battery cells, screens, FSD computer, etc.) will be borrowed from 3, driving investment cost and product cost down.
  • The Megacharger build-out will be quite different from the Supercharger build-out. Again, for a consumer product used by millions of random people around the world, you need to build a grid that covers all the major areas as they will move randomly and also need the psychological security to know they could even if they never will. Your corporate customers on the other hand, will assign the trucks to specific routes they operate. Tesla would initially build chargers at their hubs, on-premise and, say, every 300 miles along the initial routes. This is much more targeted.
Statista shows US Class 8 truck sales were just under 250k last year. If Tesla only gets 10% of the market, that's $5Bn of revenue. However, if the numbers (cost savings) are as impressive in real life as they are on paper, this may become a SpaceX scenario in market share, with Tesla sales only limited by production capacity.

PS: In Europe, truck drivers are allowed to drive 9-10 hours a day, they also have to take 45 minutes of break after 4,5 hours. In the US they can drive up to 11 hours, but must have at least a 30 minute break by the 8th hour. 30-45 minutes should be enough for a Megacharger to get the battery to 70-80%.
 
2019 Q1
We ended the quarter with $2.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents, a $1.5 billion reduction from the end of 2018
Outlook
Our 2019 capex, the vast majority of which will be to grow our capacity and develop new vehicles, is expected to be about $2.0 to $2.5 billion

May 02, 2019 :Tesla Announces Offerings of Common Stock and Convertible Senior Notes
The aggregate gross proceeds of the offerings, assuming full exercise by the underwriters of their option to purchase additional securities, would be approximately $2.3 billion

based on the above, cash equivalents end of 2019 would be $2 billion

(So the letter on cost savings must have been to avoid barnacles and flufferbots)
 
  • Disagree
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