Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[izemize]

My only issue in the article is reference to TroyTeslike’s 74k delivery estimate. This is just an estimate for Troy and he has less data than Elon. So if indeed it goes to 74k vs 91k it is not an acceptable range of error.

Tesla has clear sight on 50k orders in 51 days, plus recent trends and inventory cars; hence the remaining 40 days expectation should not be off by 40% (24k bs 41k). I am hoping (and guessing) that Troy Teslike is being very conservative.

I know that @ZachShahan did it to suggest the buffer and blunt the shock effect if Tesla underdelivers.

Since Elon's email he revised his estimate to 76k: Troy Teslike on Twitter
This is pretty much in line with the median of his survey: Tesla Production & Delivery Estimates Survey

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Did Tesla ever issue a statement saying it was fake? I remember they were sending investigators out there, but Phil LeBeau backed off the fake claims iirc

I asked that question and got a couple of strange answers, including asking me if I was concerned about the 17 car fires per hour or something. Not sure where that came from.

Maybe you'll get a straight answer.

 

[aznt1217]

Wow. First Model 3 made in China to roll off the line May 31st 2019. This is insane!!!

 

[Doggydogworld]

Thanks for the explaination! If recognized was 175m, wouldn't a fair statement be that Elon made 175m? I am not a accountant but it seems that until the money is in Elon's account, you can't say he is paid, right?

None of it is in his account yet.

Tesla granted him options that are conditional on meeting certain market cap and operational milestones. These options could expire worthless or they could eventually be worth tens or even hundreds of billions. The company has to come up with a fair value estimate that's somewhere in between those extremes and count a portion of that value as an expense each year.

It didn't use to be that way, companies could just pretend options were free. In the extreme, you could pay your employees and suppliers entirely in options and report zero expenses, lol. So companies had a choice - pay execs and employees fully in cash and report little to no profit or pay them partly in options and watch profits explode! Guess which path they chose? Eventually the FASB put an end to the foolishness and made companies count options as an expense.

 

[Thekiwi]

Could the Friday China announcement be the opening of SR/SR+ orders in china? Weren’t they supposed to start hitting China as soon as September? Or are they already able to be ordered?

(These would be US produced vehicles - at most perhaps some final assembly in Shanghai on a very simple assembly line)

 

[Navin]

 

[sparcs]

Occam's Razor. This gets my vote too.

Don't forget that a lot of people have not been following Tesla's exploits in China in as much detail as the folks on this thread. (or those drone-totin', Youtube-uploadin' Chinese whiz-kids)

Something as simple as "look how fast our building got put up. Now we're moving in with robots and presses etc."

That September/October period where me might start seeing Model 3s actually produced from the factory is not that far away. Tesla is going to have start doing some outreach letting people know that they will have these vehicles available. Most importantly at lower cost than what they are selling for today since those base model 3s are no longer subject to the import process.

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 412770

Why would Tesla do that? What a terrible idea on a business standpoint

 

[Navin]

Why would Tesla do that? What a terrible idea on a business standpoint

I think it’s bullish AF. Shows they are on track for q3 rollout and that they have enough visibility and communications with Chinese govt to release pricing. This is super bullish

 

[izemize]

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But... but... announcing the price would cap demand in the upcoming 3-6 months, wouldn't it?

 

[Carl Raymond]

I asked that question and got a couple of strange answers, including asking me if I was concerned about the 17 car fires per hour or something. Not sure where that came from.

Maybe you'll get a straight answer.

What you need to know, SoGA is that this forum is frequented by and monitored by TSLAQ trolls. If you use words like worried, or concerned, you will find your post replicated on a TSLAQ tweet taken out of context. Fine, if it’s a genuine concern, but EV fires are less frequent and less dangerous than ICEV fires which are so common as to be not newsworthy. If you need to discuss fires, be sure to start the para with something like “Given that EV fires are so rare, compared to ICEV fires...

 

[EVNow]

NOA data:

After navigating a very tricky 43 ramps in 62 different directions section of highway flawlessly, NOA did two new things that impressed the crap out of me.

1. I was in lane two from the left of 6 lanes. Put the signal on to move one lane right. NOA prepared to move, had the blue line and then it suddenly went red, though no ‘cars’ appeared on the screen in neighboring lanes.

I looked over my right shoulder and there’s a speeding SUV coming across multiple lanes from the right - but still two lanes over and behind me. The SUV hit the lane next to me just as it got beside me.

I got the distinct impression my car had anticipated this would happen and thus why it held its lane until the SUV passed. In reality it likely picked up a fast moving object coming on a trajectory toward the space it wanted to go - or some such.

2. I was in the right most lane of 4 lanes. A new merge lane was forming to my right with two cars that were going to merge into my lane. There was a very short merge distance. My exit ramp was right after this merge ended.

The two cars coming on the merge lane were close together. My car and those cars were going to meet at exactly the same time, causing my car to prevent both from being able to merge.

Just as I was about to disengage NOA to take over and yield to those cars, my car slowed enough to create my preset follow distance (7) and let those two cars merge in front of me seamlessly. It was like the car read my mind/knew my driving style.

Gobsmacked.

With new firmware 2019.16.2 - i’ve seen something new. When cars merge in at the same speed, 3 doesn’t do automatic emergency braking, like in older version. That is good. But today someone cut in rather close and still 3 wouldn’t react. Had to slow down to get back to my normal 4 car lengths.

 

[anthonyj]

The latest episode was triggered when TSLAQ shortzes told you "If Tesla would just do a Cap Raise, then everything will be all right". You repeated that mantra here for several weeks. Then as soon as the Cap Raise closed, TSLAQ moved on to the next B.S.

Flat spin advanced recovery technique recommended: ​

Lesson Learned: TSLAQ troll's gonna serve up the B.S. dejour to get you to take a bite, then they move on to the next steaming serving of doo-doo. So what to do instead?

IMHO, if you're going to swing trade TSLA, if buying on the way up, you need to be ready to sell on the technicals. Let's look at the Google chart for TSLA from May 7th:

View attachment 412720

The selloff started right at the Opening as TSLA came within $0.60 of the Middle Bollinger Band (the 2nd session in a row that level was tested). See the stockchart from May 7 at 10:10 am: (notice the Middle-BB was $257.87)

View attachment 412721

So when TSLA couldn't hold the Mid-BB, the SP promptly marched down to the Lower-BB, and it has been riding it down ever since, $67 so far. Likely manipulated, but it is what it is, right?

There may be strategies to make money in this setup (I'm no expert on that), but at least let's recognise the signals and turning points for what's going on with the SP.

Personally, with my 7-8 yr investment horizon, I am not playing these games. I choose simply to size my bet appropriately, watch the action and HODL. And also to support the Investor Community, Tesla, and the Mission:

"Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."​

Viewed in these terms, I'd say my Tesla investment is already an amazing feat, and likely to get far better as products and production expand in the mid term. TSLA will take care of itself, Tesla is in no danger of failing. HTH.

Cheers!

Lols. It wasn't TSLAQ who told me the cap raise would increase $TSLA's value. Just me. I only bought a handful of penny options, $300 strike calls and some shares so it's not a total loss. TSLA was at a price point where market makers can nuke the price and trigger panic selling, shorty FOMO and margin calls. The price we see today is fake and may not last long. At this point I would actually like to see double digits before the reversal as it would flush out the day traders, leveraged folk (sorry), and weak hands

 

[Singuy]

I think it’s bullish AF. Shows they are on track for q3 rollout and that they have enough visibility and communications with Chinese govt to release pricing. This is super bullish

I mean Tesla adjust pricing weekly. Why start all of a sudden give people prices months from now that is going to be massively cheaper. And why promise a price when the first car is not off the factory? What if Chinese labor isn't as cheap or as expensive as expected. What if they can crank out more or less than expected. Everything is up in the air but to announce a price on the 31st is stupid.

 

[KSilver2000]

I think it’s bullish AF. Shows they are on track for q3 rollout and that they have enough visibility and communications with Chinese govt to release pricing. This is super bullish

And what happens to potential sales in the mean time at a higher price? Buyers ignore it will be cheaper and just buy?

But... but... announcing the price would cap demand in the upcoming 3-6 months, wouldn't it?

Yes. Unless someone REALLY needed one, like right now right now, not sure why someone wouldn’t wait. It’s almost like being paid to wait.

 

[sparcs]

I mean Tesla adjust pricing weekly. Why start all of a sudden give people prices months from now that is going to be massively cheaper. And why promise a price when the first car is not off the factory? What if Chinese labor isn't as cheap or as expensive as expected. What if they can crank out more or less than expected. Everything is up in the year but to announce a price on the 31st is stupid.

Model 3 isn't going to get massively cheaper. The factory will be highly automated so labor costs are manageable. Base Model 3 is a known quantity now that they have it in production in the USA.

At some point you have to rip the band aid and start lining up customers.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Teslas registered today: 106

And with that, Model 3 has pulled into the lead for best-selling EV in Europe for Q2. We all knew it would end Q2 as the leader (as it was in Q1), but it’s nice to see it take the top position before the End Of Quarter has really begun.

 

[ggr]

Worth reading:
The Tesla Smear | CleanTechnica

 

[SPadival]

Google translate



Note that this is only for the SR. Hopefully, this gets imported to Australia as currently it looks like only the LR AWD and performance M3s have been homologated for Australia.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Why would Tesla do that? What a terrible idea on a business standpoint

Seems to fit the standard Tesla modus operandi. Announce a product, open the order book, collect cash from serious buyers, assess demand, scale accordingly.

So they treat the China SR Model 3 as effectively a new product. Seems fair enough, given the parochialism people apply to vehicle purchasing.

If the order count goes to hundreds of thousands, it nicely quashes silly questions about demand. I wonder how much extra for lucky red.