Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

One thing that differentiates today's price action from other recent down days, for me, is the relatively low volume.

Low? We’re only halfway through the day and already at 7 million. I can recall days where we only hit 4 for the whole day, and not so long ago.

 

[scaesare]

Some of us have an encylopedic knowledge of the energy and transportation industries *and* the related markets, a detailed knowledge of the inner workings of Tesla *and* its would-be competitors, and a working knowledge of finance, economics (both macro and micro), the mining industries, and so forth. We can make pretty accurate predictions in the longer term.

Unless someone has an inside source (or are an ex-employee), I'd suggest that having "detailed knowledge of the inner workings of Tesla", might not be the purview of any here.

I respect your ability to deduce and make educated guesses about what Tesla is doing based on external data, that's different than detailed knowledge of things you aren't privy to.

 

[Boomer19]

@neroden Do you have a link to where Tesla has done any MCU upgrades? I didn't think they have even done a single MCU1 to MCU2 upgrade. (Or are you talking about MCU1 without Nav to MCU1 with Nav upgrades?)

my buddy had his completely replaced after it failed
2012 early S

replaced the 3g mcu with an lte one last year right before he traded it in for 3P

dunno if that helps.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

What does that matter? Are there the same number of shares outstanding for apple and tesla?

His comment was just a moment of levity.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Low? We’re only halfway through the day and already at 7 million. I can recall days where we only hit 4 for the whole day, and not so long ago.

I said "relatively" low compared with recent down days, and I stick to that assessment (thus far). Also keep in mind that the afternoon is almost always lower in trading volume, so it's unlikely that we'll just double trading volume from here.

For breaching a major long-term support line, I would have expected much higher volume.

 

[Leo9]

One thing that differentiates today's price action from other recent down days, for me, is the relatively low volume.

By the end of the day we should be above average volume.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Individually that's not an irrational thing to do - but you never know when the turn around will come. With the short interest at an all time high, when it does, it will run up 20% (sometimes overnight) before we can react.

Overnight? Try faster and higher.
All those waiting for 150, one blink and the sale of the century is gone. Poof!
Good news, I haven't left the ship and ready for liftoff.
90K in Q2. Demand my ass.

 

[Zero CO2]

Reading your post and all the ones after makes me really glad I listened to the advice I heard from and took after I sold my early bought shares. I sold them during the go private fiasco last year in the high 300s. I have looked back wondering if I should redeploy but now I have kids in elementary and middle school and need to plan for their college. Paid the IRS and put the rest in cash for now but thinking about DRIP and DCF into vanguard starting a bit later this year. Its fine to do all this speculation on where the bottom will be with money you don't need or that won't affect your life if you lose. But you have to be real, this is a company it is impossible to put a real value on until they have a year or two of actual profits. Until then any number between 0 and 300 could be right, you can defend anything based on speculation of what might be in 10 years. The bottom line is no one knows what will happen in 2 much less 10 years even with index funds but with a single stock like this we know less than nothing.

Hopefully you had a big capital gain because you are going to need to fund college for kid(s) that is one price you know will continue to go up even in recession .... for your situation you are probably making the right move.....
however, if the rest of your financial house is in order i see no better long term single stock investment in out planet and our collective kids future other than Tesla !!!

not advice

 

[carterm2]

Paris climate accord... $100 Billion annual needed for responding to climate change.

IMF. $5.2 Trillion spent in 2017 Worldwide for Oil and Gas Production Subsidies.

US subsidy for oil production for some oil drilling fields as high as 40%... $649 Billion total.

Us defense budget 2017....
$696 Billion.

IMF data.

 

[VValleyEV]

I would bet not. Elon has said that HW3 is FSD capable. The only way Tesla would be forced to upgrade for free is if he is wrong about the hardware. They didn't guarantee perpetual hardware updates.

I am thinking same.

FSD option used to mean “guarantee of HW upgrades as necessary to support full-self-driving software”
FSD option on current website just lists software features, some you get right now and some coming later this year.

So if HW3 turns out be just fine for autonomous driving, there may be no push for an upgrade paths to HW4. And that would allow Tesla to change the form factor and wiring connections of the AP hardware bundle between HW3 and HW4 for whatever engineering/manufacturing reasons.

 

[Bunky]

FB, AMZN, GOOG all down more than TSLA. Very rough macros.

 

[EVNow]

Overnight? Try faster and higher.
All those waiting for 150, one blink and the sale of the century is gone. Poof!
Good news, I haven't left the ship and ready for liftoff.
90K in Q2. Demand my ass.

I hope Tesla is looking to bring a strong partner on board with 10% stake. That gives them extra capital and sends a strong signal to the market that gets shorts scared. Because in this corrupt Wall St environment only thing that pushes up SP is when shorts are scared.

The SP being so low - and yet (or because of) short interest is so high, we need a jolt.

 

[jbcarioca]

The Indians seem to be making a collection of old British brands as a form of post-colonial revenge.

Don't forget the Chinese who own Rover, London Taxi and Lotus, Lucky for Europe since Germans have Bentley, Rolls Royce and Mini.

For the moment, at least, The Brits still have Morgan although Kuwaiti interests control Aston Martin.

 

[sparcs]

FB, AMZN, GOOG all down more than TSLA. Very rough macros.

I noticed NIO is just getting hammered over the last week. Really for a month, but the last week is just continuing the slide.

 

[EVNow]

FB, AMZN, GOOG all down more than TSLA. Very rough macros.

Those 3 have particular concerns - regulation. Over due too. AAPL is actually up a bit.

 

[KSilver2000]

~$180 is a strong support level that it only broke once in 2016.

And there goes that.
Just like the upside with Tesla is without limits, the downside with TSLA is without limits too.

Also the annual shareholders meeting on the 11th of June

That won’t do anything good for the SP. If anything, there may be decline in SP afterwards. I’ve been (unfortunately) correct for the past handful of events, and I don’t sense this shareholder meeting to be any different .

 

[Todd Burch]

Here is something I have been wanting to ask:

Elon let it be known at autonomy day (perhaps unwisely?) that there is yet a newer FSD chip coming beyond the one in HW3, and that this new one will be even better in performance/capabilities. I understand that cars currently being shipped have HW3 with the new FSD chip, and cars with AP2/2.5 that have purchased the FSD option will get HW3 as an upgrade.

Lets give the name “HW4” to AP hardware based on this yet-to-be-released FSD Chip. The questions are (and probably no one knows):

1. Will the FSD option purchased with cars being delivered now with HW3 guarantee an upgrade to HW4?
2. Will cars that get upgraded to HW3, because of prior FSD purchase, get upgraded again to HW4?

1. Almost certainly no.
2. Almost certainly no.

 

[Leo9]

And there goes that.
Just like the upside with Tesla is without limits, the downside with TSLA is without limits too

It's never going to break the strongest support line: $0.

That won’t do anything good for the SP. If anything, there may be decline in SP afterwards. I’ve been (unfortunately) correct for the past handful of events, and I don’t sense this shareholder meeting to be any different .

Last year it did wonders.

 

[VValleyEV]

I disagree in the following sense:

Rivian has a real announced pickup, not a concept vehicle, shown both at LA and NY auto shows, and it will be manufactured later this year. I have seen it up close (they had one at an outdoor expo in Arizona a few weeks ago) and talked to some of the team. Vehicle and specs and timeline are very credible, including a factory in Illinois that they got at rock bottom prices.

Tesla does not have an announced pickup vehicle. I hope they do soon.

This turned out to be surprisingly polarizing. Let me try again:

1. I own a Tesla MS and some Tesla stock, love Tesla products and vision.
2. I would like a BEV to replace my Jeep Rubicon for adventures in the SW: frequent steep, rough, rocky trails.
3. Rivian has an announced product you can see and touch, and is taking orders. Tesla does not have an announced pickup.

I am eagerly awaiting a Tesla P/U reveal, but in the meantime Tesla does not yet have a product competitive to the Rivian R1T. What I have heard teased so far let me to believe that Tesla’s P/U would be some sort of Hummer on Steroids, much larger than an F-150 and unlikely to fit in my garage, which would not be the market segment of the R1T. However, that great tease from Elon of $50k being the maximum for introductory price really made me take notice.

 

[KSilver2000]

By the end of the day we should be above average volume.

At this rate, we’ll hit avg V in just an hour.
I think it will end the day with about 14M shares volume.