Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Heimdallr]

Troy Teslike posted 5,978 bn as Tesla automobile revenue estimate in Q2 19. in Q3 18 it was 6,099 bn and 311mn earnings.

Anyone thinks the missing approx 250mn for an S&P inclusion can be reached?

Edit: Link Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike

No. But I'm very optimistic about Q3 and Q4. Higher Model S/X numbers will make a huge difference for profitability.

 

[mongo]

OT
Tl;dr; semi is a reasonable thing to build.

Clearly increasing the # of AVs is best for the mission (much larger number of EV miles means more missions stopped) and for the bottomline.

I'd be happy to say Semis should be the priority if someone shows making Semi removes more emissions in 5 years than making robotaxis. Take into account how much cash robotaxis can generate and how many more batteries can be produced because of that etc.

Miles replaced is not the key factor, emissions removed is (fuel consumption and type).
Taxis are trending toward higher efficiency gasoline vehicles already (Prius for instance). Replacing a 40MPG or higher gasoline or gas hybrid removes much fewer CO2, NOx, and particulates than removing a diesel semi.
Semi: one million miles in 2.6 years (80% utilization 50 MPH average speed)
Taxi: one million miles in 5.5 years (70% utilization 30 MPH average speed)

Semi: 2x the mileage
Semi: 6 MPG
Taxi: 36 MPG
Semi: 6x the fuel usage
Combined: semi 12x the fuel burned per year
Fuel type:
Semi: diesel 2.68kg of CO2/L
Taxi: gasoline 2.31kg og CO2/L
Semi: 15% more CO2 per unit fuel.
Semi 13.8x the CO2 per year.
Particulates: semi is higher
Replacement type: semi replacement age is higher than taxi, thus an e-semi replaces old more polluting tech.
Lifespan: robo-taxi is 1 million mile powertrain like semi, but I expect semi will be be refurbed more times (new seat, overhaul drive units, swap packs, downgrade LR to SR) at 7.5 year per semi, the is 3x the total miles.
Market: in the US there are approximately 2 million semis
In 2016 the US had 305,000 taxi drivers. Assuming 2 shifts, under 200k taxis.
Semi: 10x the market

Cell usage:
Semi 600 kWh SR, up to 1,000kWh LR
Taxi: 60 kWh
Semi: 10 to 16x the cells.

At a 10x ratio of emissions per year, and 45x over lifespan, SR semi is better at reducing GHG+ particulate than replacing taxis. Over full life span, LR semi is better than taxi.
Market is 10x for semi, allowing up to 450x per year reduction in the US. Tesla growth is limited by things other than $$, and Tesla can use a lot of semis internally (materials, car haulers) which produce revenue also. With a proven revenue record, Tesla can fund expansion with bonds or other means vs cash.
Also faster and logistically easier to build 1/10 the number of semi.

Plus the general improvements of semi average speed, reduction of pollution in urban areas, efficiency improvement over topography which add to the benefits.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

No. But I'm very optimistic about Q3 and Q4. Higher Model S/X numbers will make a huge difference for profitability.

I am hearing (reading) too many rumors about an interior/exterior refresh for Model S and possibly even X in Q3 or Q4. Whether it is true or not, my worry is that this could dampen sales as it did in Q1. The extra demand after a refresh would maybe not be delivered fast enough to compensate for this. If there is an interior/exterior refresh coming up, it better happen fast.

 

[ammulder]

Wasn’t the theory on the refresh that they’d do it as long as they were already changing the production lines around (combining X and S) to make room for the Y? If so, it at least should not add a substantial production shutdown, though there may be no avoiding some Osborning if leaks continue, and some discounting of older inventory when it happens.

Though, I’m not convinced that such discounts are a bad thing — expands the audience downmarket a bit and helps push people into a decision, without actually devaluing current models.

 

[DrJohnM]

In the case of cars, since the average age of cars on the road is 12 years, if this stays true, then after we reach 100% new car sales electric, it'll still be 12 more years before
*half* of the cars on the road are electric. Retirements of old cars might accelerate, but you get the picture.


Yeah, 90% of new car sales by 2030 -- displacing the old fleet will take at *least* another 10 years, possibly longer unfortunately.

The demise of the ICE will happen faster than you indicate. As more ICE’s go end of life, the total consumption of petrol/diesel will reduce resulting in the closure of filling stations making it more difficult to refill your ICE. Already here in the UK, there have been significant reductions in the number of filling stations requiring one to go out of your way to refill. Many of those stations just about make a living, so it will not take much to tip some of those into closure (also considering improved fuel efficiencies, smaller cars). Once it starts, there will be a cascading effect.

 

[CorneliusXX]

How many 75kWh robotaxis can they make using the battery from one Semi ?

Lets say ~10. Can a Semi make for Tesla ~$1M per year, since a robotaxi can make ~$100k ?

ps : Tesla says Semi will save $200k in fuel. Definitely the driver is not getting paid $800k per year

Moreover, the batteries used in a semi will take a lot of cars off the road when autonomous taxis are available. If there is roughly 10x the number of batteries in a semi compared to a M3 and the utilisation rate of a M3 robotaxi is roughly 10x that of private vehicles then the batteries used in one semi could take 100 cars off the road.

This is back of the envelope math but the real number should easily be over 50.

 

[lascavarian]

Regarding the Semi discussion:

To transition the larger vehicle industry, the goal is achieved through winning the mind share of customers.

In the world of motorcycles there was a saying, “Race on Sunday to sell on Monday”. Grab attention first and selling goes much easier. I think this approach by Tesla on performance has served them well.

My position is that winning the auto sector will be necessary to win the critical mind share that is required to pull the larger sectors (trucking, marine, aviation) to the electric/renewable path.

So there is a tension between the needs for mind share capture vs ideal battery utilization.

 

[1101011]

Semi transition should be easier, as those people only care about cost per mile and have zero loyalty to brands. It's not just mpg, since diesel contains more poison causing cancer etc.- fine particulate matter (PM). And it's not just EV that other brands can provide, it's also speed of charging and AV functionality...

...As EM said, throwing more money at it does not always increase speed of growth past certain point. So, they may have enough cash w/o going 100% robotaxis to do what they want at the max speed feasible.

I feel this segment can be brought around most speedily by grasping the pure economics, which will prove quite persuasive.

 

[sparcs]

Tesla needs to get the Roadster and the Cyberpunk Pickup truck out of the door quickly, doesn't need to be in large quantity, just enough to flood YouTube, please...

Tesla has already flooded youtube. I've had to start clicking "not interested" on youtube just to cut down on the number of Tesla channels that show up on my feed. It's only going to get more crazy over the next year as Tesla continues pushing Model 3s out the door (and new software updates).

 

[jerry33]

My position is that winning the auto sector will be necessary to win the critical mind share that is required to pull the larger sectors (trucking, marine, aviation) to the electric/renewable path.

I don't buy that. Transportation industries go by profit, not mindshare. Show them more profit and they will change in a heartbeat. Enthusiast and consumer purchases go mainly by mindshare.

 

[22522]

I feel this segment can be brought around most speedily by grasping the pure economics, which will prove quite persuasive.

This is a return on capital question for battery manufacturing equipment.

I think the unknown is useful life of the equipment...

If you look at the lake of Diesel based transportation, and the time constant of other battery technologies, there is enough useful life to pay for the machines using today's tech. It will take a long time to drain the lake.

New tech will have a better return.

Buffett should just pour capital on EV trucking with today's tech. Waiting is a greed game. There is enough return now and enough market to absorb everything made.

Note: All speculation expecting an 18 month payback on capital investment.

 

[ggr]

Mod: Earthquake posts moved: Earthquake! --ggr.

 

[brian45011]

Or Tesla could just put them on the CPO market?

The viability of that option depends to a great extent on the residual value assumed in the lease rate calculation if rob-taxi tech is not perfected by the end of the lease term.

 

[yngwie_2012]

What do you guys think about the model3 model mix and the relatively low Model X & S deliveries?
Are the X and S demand declining due to Model 3? Or is Elon focusing on Model 3 production?
I hope the total profit does not decline even though Model 3 is ramping up nicely due to volume decrease in X and S.

 

[Bladerskb]

Amazing how ARK invest’s analyses are well thought out and well researched. The other analysts use the ancient method of killing a chicken and building their thesis based on the layout of the chicken’s intestines.

You mean this Ark Invest?
Tesla could be worth ‘multiples’ of current $50 billion market cap by 2020, fund manager says

So well thought out and well researched with Bullseye accuracy.

 

[Stars aligned]

No. But I'm very optimistic about Q3 and Q4. Higher Model S/X numbers will make a huge difference for profitability.

Mind to share your thoughts backing your categorical no so we can smarten up?

I would have given a very low chance before record delivery numbers came out, based on my own 87 to 90k delivery estimate. But after >95k deliveries reported and considering the huge inventory write down in Q1, I give it now a 35% or higher chance to reach the earnings needed for S&P inclusion.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

What do you guys think about the model3 model mix and the relatively low Model X & S deliveries?
Are the X and S demand declining due to Model 3? Or is Elon focusing on Model 3 production?
I hope the total profit does not decline even though Model 3 is ramping up nicely due to volume decrease in X and S.

I was someone who bought an S because I couldn't wait any longer for the 3 here in the UK. I was thinking about this recently and I don't think the 3 eating into the S is a big deal. Someone in my position would be looking at a mid-low end S versus a fairly top end M3. In other words, when Tesla converts a low end S buyer into a high end 3 buyer, the profit margin likely goes up. Its a good thing

 

[JRP3]

'd be happy to say Semis should be the priority if someone shows making Semi removes more emissions in 5 years than making robotaxis.

That's easy, the Tesla Semi exists, Tesla robotaxis do not. Semis will be in production and displacing ICE semis long before robtaxis are able to roam the streets autonomously.

 

[EVNow]

That's easy, the Tesla Semi exists, Tesla robotaxis do not. Semis will be in production and displacing ICE semis long before robtaxis are able to roam the streets autonomously.

You didn't see the context. The context has been - IF FSD is achieved, what should Tesla do.

 

[kbM3]

OT
Tl;dr; semi is a reasonable thing to build.





Miles replaced is not the key factor, emissions removed is (fuel consumption and type).
Taxis are trending toward higher efficiency gasoline vehicles already (Prius for instance). Replacing a 40MPG or higher gasoline or gas hybrid removes much fewer CO2, NOx, and particulates than removing a diesel semi.
Semi: one million miles in 2.6 years (80% utilization 50 MPH average speed)
Taxi: one million miles in 5.5 years (70% utilization 30 MPH average speed)

Semi: 2x the mileage
Semi: 6 MPG
Taxi: 36 MPG
Semi: 6x the fuel usage
Combined: semi 12x the fuel burned per year
Fuel type:
Semi: diesel 2.68kg of CO2/L
Taxi: gasoline 2.31kg og CO2/L
Semi: 15% more CO2 per unit fuel.
Semi 13.8x the CO2 per year.
Particulates: semi is higher
Replacement type: semi replacement age is higher than taxi, thus an e-semi replaces old more polluting tech.
Lifespan: robo-taxi is 1 million mile powertrain like semi, but I expect semi will be be refurbed more times (new seat, overhaul drive units, swap packs, downgrade LR to SR) at 7.5 year per semi, the is 3x the total miles.
Market: in the US there are approximately 2 million semis
In 2016 the US had 305,000 taxi drivers. Assuming 2 shifts, under 200k taxis.
Semi: 10x the market

Cell usage:
Semi 600 kWh SR, up to 1,000kWh LR
Taxi: 60 kWh
Semi: 10 to 16x the cells.

At a 10x ratio of emissions per year, and 45x over lifespan, SR semi is better at reducing GHG+ particulate than replacing taxis. Over full life span, LR semi is better than taxi.
Market is 10x for semi, allowing up to 450x per year reduction in the US. Tesla growth is limited by things other than $$, and Tesla can use a lot of semis internally (materials, car haulers) which produce revenue also. With a proven revenue record, Tesla can fund expansion with bonds or other means vs cash.
Also faster and logistically easier to build 1/10 the number of semi.

Plus the general improvements of semi average speed, reduction of pollution in urban areas, efficiency improvement over topography which add to the benefits.

Thanks for the calculations

One nit:

Cheap Autonomous robo-taxis will not only displace taxis, but vast swathes of personal vehicles as it expands the market greatly, so the 36 mpg figure may be a little high.