Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bobfitz1]

Probably sooner if Tesla can make it happen but there is a lot of testing still to be done before any type of volume can be reached, if it can.

1. I don't think Musk, Straubel et al. went forward with buying Maxwell if they hadn't determined dry electrode batteries could be manufactured in giant volume more cheaply.
2. I do think Jeff Dahn's group has been doing their advanced testing on the Maxwell batteries for 1 - 2 years by now.

 

[Nocturnal]

It may actually be just the opposite of that. Tesla already prohibits structural pulling / structural straightening, which is "any part that is welded, weld-bonded, rivet-bonded, or riveted to the vehicle", because it might weaken the joint. But if the whole frame is one part, this concern about weakening structural bonds goes away. Structural pulling is the "cheap and easy way" to repair damage, although manufacturers are increasingly recommending against it, particularly on unibody vehicles.

Any place where metal is welded/riveted etc. is also a source of flex. Perhaps a mechanical engineering type might correct me, but I believe that is at least as important as overall strength in a vehicle body.

 

[mblakele]

Tesla to also build lithium battery factory in Morowali - ANTARA News

Tesla, electric car manufacturer from the United States, is partaking in the construction of a lithium battery raw material factory in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) area, Central Sulawesi.

"CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology) is the one that entered Morowali, then it and LG were the major players. Tesla also joined it, but how much, I did not know," Maritime Affairs Coordinating Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan stated​

 

[CorneliusXX]

So I was looking at Tesla's Model Y wire harness patent:

US20190217794 WIRING SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE​

Very interesting design! The key part is a presumably pre-manufactured, modular, rigid wire structure made of various isolation, shielding and conducting material layers sandwiched together in a compact rectangular form:

View attachment 433142
​

124 and 132 layers are plastic insulators, 130a/b are power conductors.

Note that 132a/b are metallic shields which might even wrap the conductors "130 a/b", forming a complete Faraday cage (not depicted).

I.e. the automotive wire harness reinvented which Elon's been hinting about for years, but Tesla's patent doesn't actually limit to this automotive applications, and I've not seen such a complex few-wires design before.

The pre-fabricated segments are clipped together almost in a LEGO fashion, as shown on Figure 8:

View attachment 433147​

One application I haven't seen Tesla mention in this patent is to share the power bus and the signal bus over a single pair of conductors - this is very viable in the stable DC electrical regime of EVs and simplifies the myriads of electronics over a single unified central bus (or a hierarchical set of buses) with shielded cables.

Also reduces manufacturing expenses and maintenance - electrical faults are a primary source of trouble and expense.

Tesla's Claim 1 covers this sandwich structure and their claims are not limited to the 'rectangular' layout.

So unless there's prior art which invalidates it this could be a very valuable generic patent.

If someone told me when I was a kid, that I would read about patent applications for generic wiring harnesses for fun, I'm sure I would have cried.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I am familiar with it, and as I said, I believe it has a lot of potential. It is not a done deal, Maxwell was targeting 2023. Probably sooner if Tesla can make it happen but there is a lot of testing still to be done before any type of volume can be reached, if it can. It is theoretical at this point that they can get the volume efficiencies they predicted, although they, Elon and even myself think they can do it, the question is when. You don't delay a product and throw away all your current manufacturing capacity because you may have something better down the road. Should Tesla toss out all their 18650 cell manufacturing since 21700 is better? Clearly they don't agree with you since they are still producing and using them.

Where did you see 2023?

Maxwell's business plan forecast included revenue of $14m from Tesla in 2019 and Tesla revenue of at least $59m in 2021 which would have had to correspond to commercial scale production.

Part of the rational of the acquisition would have obviously been to accelerate and expand any previous plan.

I agree they shouldn't delay any plans waiting on Maxwell tech though.

 

[Rb48888]

This is sooooo boring. (No dry powder)

Can we just agree that everyone has picked their sides, and go ahead and release the numbers already? /s

 

[X Fan]

I think Tesla has known and accepted all along that Model Y will cut deeply into what Model 3 sales would have been without the Model Y but that the overall sales will be so much higher and that the Model Y has more potential for higher margins so this is simply accepted. The Model Y will outsell the Model 3 by 2:1. If they are delaying the release it would only be due to battery constraints or to delay the investment and strengthen the company before undergoing the risk entailed with bringing a new model into production.

However, I think it's obvious by the very low-key unveiling of the Model Y that Tesla would like to surprise the market with the Model Y, not build anticipation and trumpet loudly before it's available. This points to an earlier, not later release. It could be the undercut left to the jaw of ICE manufacturers that is so hard and sudden, they'll barely know what hit them. Model 3 was a quick right-handed jab, Model Y will be the surprise left-handed follow-up that makes them hit the mat. It has the potential to do real carnage. Really, it's all dependent upon battery production capacity and capital considerations.

Although recently Tesla has done a good job in eliminating leaks, IMHO, the marketplace (particularly shorts) would have a heads up that the Y was in production.

There is just too much $$$$$$ tied up in tesla to maintain complete silence.

 

[UncaNed]

You cannot do this under load though - such as when accelerating or simply maintaining speed at higher velocities - so the acceleration profile wouldn't be smooth. AFAIK you need some sort of clutch to have continuous power transfer, even with a 2-speed transmission.

Front could provide power while rear transmission shifts, then vice-versa.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Good old CNBC. I'm serious that I think they are playing with fire by alienating so many affluent, and passionate Tesla owners. Not a big deal when there weren't so many of us, but that number is growing steadily. At least they included the caveat.

Posting a gimmick video by ford and talking about how it means it will tow more than the Tesla Pick up.
View attachment 433212

Plus they didn't notice the weight was on rails...
Such a deliberately misleading and meaningless towing weight reported by Ford, but you wouldn't expect anything more from them, or CNBC.
Just imagine Lora's outrage at Elon's fraud for reporting a towing weight on rails as if it was actual towing ability.

 

[Nocturnal]

Speed of transition matters. I think to get there faster Tesla needs to overdeliver. I.e. not just provide a bare minimum that some are comfortable with, but kill it with the numbers that nobody can argue with.

You want to save some money? Here's a 250mi battery for you. Less weight, more efficient.
You have range anxiety and need some assurances or help to dump your ICE? Here's a 400-500mi battery for you. Once you transition, the next EV you buy will be appropriate for your real needs.

I'm not sure really. Anyone that thinks they need a 500 mile battery is probably not the type to switch to EV regardless of range. On the other hand, people are really stupid. I could see some paying 5k more for the range to save 4 hours of travel time a year...despite the fact that their hourly wage net taxes is like $50.

 

[UncaNed]

If someone told me when I was a kid, that I would read about patent applications for generic wiring harnesses for fun, I'm sure I would have cried.

I bet your parents would have been concerned too.

 

[mongo]

OT

Good old CNBC. I'm serious that I think they are playing with fire by alienating so many affluent, and passionate Tesla owners. Not a big deal when there weren't so many of us, but that number is growing steadily. At least they included the caveat.

Posting a gimmick video by ford and talking about how it means it will tow more than the Tesla Pick up.
View attachment 433212

The coefficient of rolling friction of rail wheels is so low (0.001- 0.002) that a man can pull half a million pounds just with his teeth:
Heaviest train pulled by teeth

Low rolling resistance passenger tires are > 0.006 (per 2003 Wikipedia data)

 

[KarenRei]

If someone told me when I was a kid, that I would read about patent applications for generic wiring harnesses for fun, I'm sure I would have cried.

It wouldn't have phased me. I've always been a nerd.

 

[StealthP3D]

The comments are amusing

OMG! I'm surprised no one commented on how sick Mark Siegel looks these days! While he was never handsome at least he looked relatively normal. Now he looks like a sick cartoon caricature of himself who has acid reflux and is about to puke any minute. His face has morphed into a twisted and tortured ghoulish form that one might expect to run into during a bad dream in which you are on a tour of the underworld. He barely looks human. He must hate appearing in front of the camera looking like this but his big bets against Tesla demand that he does in an attempt to further his goals. He only appeared stumped one time during the interview, it was when he was asked what he would need to see to change his mind about Tesla. As he paused I could see him thinking "I will NEVER change my mind about this sugar-hole of a company". And his answer was not much different.

I guess I just don't see how his life can turn itself around and leave him better off than before he went on this anti-Tesla crusade. The ending will not be pretty for him. I would say I have not an ounce of compassion for such a cretin but he looked so tortured and sick, that would be a lie. It's sad.

 

[KarenRei]

Any place where metal is welded/riveted etc. is also a source of flex. Perhaps a mechanical engineering type might correct me, but I believe that is at least as important as overall strength in a vehicle body.

You don't want the passenger safety cell flexing. You want everything else flexing. The whole point of the safety cell is to resist intrusion.

 

[StealthP3D]

Although recently Tesla has done a good job in eliminating leaks, IMHO, the marketplace (particularly shorts) would have a heads up that the Y was in production.

There is just too much $$$$$$ tied up in tesla to maintain complete silence.

I agree with that. But hearing rumors that it's in production is not the same thing as being hit with surprise left-handed upper-cut when it starts flooding the market.

 

[Dennisj00]

For all the posts hammering on Tesla for negative service experiences, I’d like to report a very positive one. I’m in Jacksonville for the week and had a slow leak on the left front of our three. I inflated it at a 7/11 and a quick call to T - he offered a ranger, local tire places and then the address of the local Service Center - 5 miles away.

15 minutes later, the SC checked me in and in less than an hour had it plugged and on my way. A very busy SC but very clean and professional. Both of my experiences with rangers for recalls have been equally as impressive.

Lots of M3s on the road and at the Superchargers!

 

[adiggs]

I'm not sure really. Anyone that thinks they need a 500 mile battery is probably not the type to switch to EV regardless of range. On the other hand, people are really stupid. I could see some paying 5k more for the range to save 4 hours of travel time a year...despite the fact that their hourly wage net taxes is like $50.

You could go with "the 500 mile battery pack is a niche market" and get the same idea conveyed, rather than equating people looking for a 500 mile battery pack with stupid.

One market that is closed to Tesla today is towing stuff. I'm thinking of camper trailers. It's not that the market doesn't exist at all for Tesla, but the range of camper trailers that can be used is seriously restricted, and the people doing this sort of thing have to accept limitations on what they can do that many will not accept.

I tow an inefficient truck bed trailer with my Model X - it works well, but when I've got a reasonably aerodynamic and modestly heavy load, my mental expectation is I'll consume 2 miles of expected range to cover 1 mile of actual terrain. So 660-700 wh / mile instead of 330-350. That means my 230 rated range pack is good for 115 miles, and doing the 62 mile haul I've been doing is straightforward. But if I sub in a camper trailer and want to go touring, I'm limited to trips where I can find a supercharger every 100 miles. And if I'm in mountainous terrain like the rockies, then I probably need to be recharging even more often than that.

I'd LOVE a 500 mile rated range battery pack, or at least the option, as that would translate into more like 200-250 useful miles of range when towing. It wouldn't change my particular current use - utility trailer as a fake pickup truck for hauling stuff around locally.

But it'd open up camper trailer / RV'ing in a big way. That is definitely a niche market, but you can get a sense of the interest in this by reading the different threads about it in the Model X forum.

 

[M3Rider]

I'm not sure really. Anyone that thinks they need a 500 mile battery is probably not the type to switch to EV regardless of range. On the other hand, people are really stupid. I could see some paying 5k more for the range to save 4 hours of travel time a year...despite the fact that their hourly wage net taxes is like $50.

There are few owners here who'll tell you they need 500mi. To tow some stuff into wilderness, possibly in winter. Also, to make a 500mi trip in summer without restroom breaks. Cause they can.

The only remaining arguable "disadvantages" of EVs are:
1. Initial cost is higher
2. ICE has more range
If these are removed(and it may not even be necessary for orders to match the natural growth of Tesla), then what arguments remain?
Removing either of these will be a huge catalyst leading to the death of ICE.

 

[SO16]

Plus they didn't notice the weight was on rails...
Such a deliberately misleading and meaningless towing weight reported by Ford, but you wouldn't expect anything more from them, or CNBC.
Just imagine Lora's outrage at Elon's fraud for reporting a towing weight on rails as if it was actual towing ability.

To put it into perspective, a Model X RATED tow capacity of 5k pounds is seen here pulling a 250k pound Dreamliner (with tires). So as we know, max capabilities and rated are two different things.