Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Not to mention huge EV incentives (total = $16,5k). SR+ can go for as cheap as $26,5k there.

Tesla Model 3 fever hits South Korea as crowds flock stores to see the ~$26.5k EV

South Korea population = 51,5 million.
Disposable income per capita is 13th highest in the world.

If the Models 3 and Y sell well in S. Korea, that will be a huge feather in Tesla's cap. IMHO, the S. Korean firms may end up being Tesla's biggest competition, as they're already making some pretty nice BEV's and they have shown the ability to rapidly improve the quality of the vehicles they make. I think they're in a much better position than any of the German firms, especially if they can utilize a fast charge network and also implement OTA updates and upgrades. The S. Koreans are quick learners and the next few years will be interesting. But, I believe the best way for them to get there is to create new divisions that only sell BEV's so the dealers won't be stuck in the sales/service revenue conundrum that all the rest of the ICE dealers are facing... hard to sell electric cars if your salespeople are pushing the gas burners.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I think it is commonly known that Musk is not well regarded in the professional investment community. I am not saying it is a bad thing, and personally kind of like how he has told most of the analyst community to pound sand, but in order for the stock price to stabilize and debunk many of the short arguments, Tesla has to deliver on Musk's public announcements.

Taking the temperature of "the professional investment community" is quite speculative. The top 20 investors were published a couple of pages ago and there appears to be plenty of professional investors who are happy with management.

Do you have any stats regarding the professional investment community's current opinions?

 

[wipster]

The FSD price is the Expected Value of the probabilistic distribution of future FSD value. Much like TSLA's stock price is Expected Value of the probabilistic distribution of future cash flows!

Say that fast three times!

 

[Krugerrand]

Don't worry about the demand problem - if Tesla needs to, they could put out some please-don't-buy-our-car ads to try to lower demand to levels that they can manage

Meh. Jaguar already has one of those ads out on behalf of Tesla. $3k conquest discount ad.

 

[wipster]

Japan, Hong Kong and Macao have gone from reservations to orders and are supposed to start deliveries some time in early to mid Q3, so I didn't include them.

Australia and New Zealand as well? I think down under will be huge...

 

[Lessmog]

Australia and New Zealand as well? I think down under will be huge...

The hidden part of ICE-berg, eh? Goin' Down Under ...

 

[willw64]

Taking the temperature of "the professional investment community" is quite speculative. The top 20 investors were published a couple of pages ago and there appears to be plenty of professional investors who are happy with management.

Do you have any stats regarding the professional investment community's current opinions?

You honestly believe that at the moment Musk does not have a credibility issue with the professional investment community? Yeah I do, look at the short interest in the company. I am long the stock, but you can't put your head in the sand. The 35% or so short interest represents a huge bet by the professional investment management community against the company. Look at how few sell side analysts bother to listen to the quarterly call.

I am not saying they are right, or I would be short the stock myself, but the stock action speaks for itself. Not to mention the SEC settlement.

 

[elasalle]

Seeing lots of reports on cities going with Electric Buses .. so heres to hoping Queen B is a Tesla Bus - based on Semi ...

+ London Double Decker Bus

 

[traxila]

There is nothing recession proof about any car company, especially insofar as the stock price. Stock market gets routed and TSLA could fall in half while continuing to grow production and deliveries. When the next bull comes it would then skyrocket. But a 25% drop in QQQ could easily mean a fifty percent haircut for TSLA. Fair warning.

I know it looks ridiculous. The company has never been in better shape or more ahead of the competition.

 

[humbaba]

You honestly believe that at the moment Musk does not have a credibility issue with the professional investment community? Yeah I do, look at the short interest in the company. I am long the stock, but you can't put your head in the sand. The 35% or so short interest represents a huge bet by the professional investment management community against the company. Look at how few sell side analysts bother to listen to the quarterly call.

I am not saying they are right, or I would be short the stock myself, but the stock action speaks for itself. Not to mention the SEC settlement.

I'm not disputing your claim about Musk and credibility with "professional investment community" but your argument that the high level of shorting is proof is nonsense. Not only does it ignore the "professional" interests aligned against Tesla which have great reason to short it, but the same argument would mean that Steve Jobs had no credibility with the professional investment community. Anyone making that argument is ignoring the results and proves it does not make a good investment guide.

In short, if you thesis is true, it only proves that there is no credibility for the professional investment community.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm decidedly not a betting person and I am in the crowd that thinks true autonomy is decades away. And yet I still think Tesla's FSD has considerable value. It boils down to its current and near-term capabilities as best-in-class driver assistance. If I was thirty years younger I'd assign less value to driver assistance, but at this point in my life I love it.

Whether it is worth $2k or $7k or whatever I won't argue: it depends to a great extent on the needs of the individual. It definitely has a higher incremental cost than competitors, but it is also better currently and with much greater potential. I've never heard of GM or Nissan offering a free OTA update to improve their driver assistance packages.

IMO buying FSD is a no brainer because its value to the owner will increase over time and, independently, it will improve over time. Its like the value grows as O(n^2) instead of O(n).

My only real gripe is that it goes with the car -- that is very backwards IMO. When I buy a software license and then upgrade my computer I don't have to buy the software all over again. Tesla's approach means I'm unlikely to ever buy another Tesla because I won't be afford the future cost of FSD and the older I get the more dependent I will be on having it.

The last is an interesting point. Here’s something to consider and remember - Tesla changes direction like the wind.

Don’t assume FSD will continue to be tied to the vehicle rather than the person. Send the idea to Elon, you never know. He might already be considering doing what you’d prefer. They may have scrapped the idea for now because it doesn’t make sense for Tesla, but will revisit the idea later on.

Practically everything Tesla is doing, planning on doing, has never been done. There will be mistakes and bumps and iterations and about face changes. Have a little faith that Elon really means what he says about wanting everyone to have access to affordable EVs that don’t require compromise.

The man ages just like the rest of us, and he’s experienced being broke a time or two. There will be a resolution when the time comes for there to be one. In the meantime, an interesting idea like yours should be made known to him.

 

[elasalle]

There is nothing recession proof about any car company, especially insofar as the stock price. Stock market gets routed and TSLA could fall in half while continuing to grow production and deliveries. When the next bull comes it would then skyrocket. But a 25% drop in QQQ could easily mean a fifty percent haircut for TSLA. Fair warning.

I know it looks ridiculous. The company has never been in better shape or more ahead of the competition.

Since it's ATH, Tesla has already been in recession mode for a long time. Good thing is that they have 5-6B to weather the storm.

 

[Christine69420]

Seeing lots of reports on cities going with Electric Buses .. so heres to hoping Queen B is a Tesla Bus - based on Semi ...

Buses are often built by coach builders on top of a low slung bus chassis. As soon as the Semi is dry behind it's ears it should be possible to make the neccesary changes. Motorhomes can be built on top of the same. Or on top of a semi chassis.

 

[Thekiwi]

$4 off the days lows. Not great, but could have been worse.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Meh. Jaguar already has one of those ads out on behalf of Tesla. $3k conquest discount ad.

If they put another zero in there I might consider it.

 

[wipster]

Meh. Jaguar already has one of those ads out on behalf of Tesla. $3k conquest discount ad.

And they still can't give them away!

 

[mrmage]

Edit: Quotes foobar, attribution may be off.

My only real gripe is that it goes with the car -- that is very backwards IMO. When I buy a software license and then upgrade my computer I don't have to buy the software all over again. Tesla's approach means I'm unlikely to ever buy another Tesla because I won't be afford the future cost of FSD and the older I get the more dependent I will be on having it.

I like the subscription model idea. Not just FSD by EAP and other services too. If Tesla is confident about the value it provides, they should have an option to license by time. People who really liked it could buy, people that don't would have a chance to use it for awhile and see if it added enough value.

What's up with the SP drop? I'm surprised it's down so much when everything has been going well with the company.

 

[jerry33]

My only real gripe is that it goes with the car -- that is very backwards IMO. When I buy a software license and then upgrade my computer I don't have to buy the software all over again.

These days that is only sometimes true.

 

[wipster]

Buses are often built by coach builders on top of a low slung bus chassis. As soon as the Semi is dry behind it's ears it should be possible to make the neccesary changes. Motorhomes can be built on top of the same. Or on top of a semi chassis.

Wow, think of buses using FSD on fixed routes, no drivers required... the 2020's and on will be a brand new world for us oldsters...

 

[kengchang]

Do you have any stats regarding the professional investment community's current opinions?

Like him?