Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

While every investor makes decisions on buying and selling in Tesla based on their own beliefs about the company and it's current positives and negatives (and unfortunate financial reasons and timing), it is mindboggling to me that any Tesla investor would sell out of their position before the Battery Investor Day in early 2020. We all have hints about the direction they could go but considering their comments about a path to annual terawatt battery production, Tesla could come pretty close to monopolizing the EV market.

It's pretty obvious they pushed back all of their upcoming product releases(Y, Pickup, Semi, Roadster) because of what they're going to announce at the Battery Investor Day. Right now it seems like volume production on things like Semi and Pickup(Roadster to some degree) are really far off but that's mostly based off of the fact that even if Tesla launched those products today, they wouldn't be able to produce them in volume solely due to not enough batteries. The model 3 production ramp has seemed to take forever, mostly because of the battery shortages. The gap between when the first Model Y, Semi, and Pickup's get produced and when they hit mass volume could be much, much shorter than the Model 3.

Not saying what they'll show at Battery Investor Day will be in Tesla vehicles in the months following, but I would think by the end of 2020, those advancements would be in the vehicles. What I'm basically saying is that Battery Investor Day has the potential to surprised to the upside in a huge way. It could alter Tesla's growth by accelerating the ramp of production for all Tesla products going forward by a large amount.

Why this translates to a near monopoly in the EV space is entirely up to Tesla's management. They could go for the jugular of every auto maker out there in 2021 and 2022, if the battery advancements actually do lead to annual battery production of terawatt/year within the 2021-2022 timeframe. They would have such a large advantage in economies of scale in battery production that they could offer products with much higher range(higher than the range disparity right now), while offering those higher range vehicles at much lower prices than the competition......AND.....they would actually have the level of production to fulfill annual demand. The competitions only options would be to match on price(take a huge loss per vehicle and eventually go bankrupt), try and match on specs but be priced much higher(and see demand for both their EV and ICE vehicles collapse), or consolidate most of the traditional auto makers into a single brand(most likely under VW)…..even under that scenario, if Tesla's battery production advancements are even a half of what they're suggesting, a single consolidated auto maker would still not be able to match Tesla's battery production and economies of scale.

Again not saying I'm expecting all of that. I'm keeping my expectations low. The thing is.....no one is expecting anything close to the potential of what Tesla could show/announce at that event. So the chance of a huge upside surprise is there for any investor willing to hold on to their shares until Q1 2020. That alone, to me at least, is enough of a reason why, despite the complaints of service issues and bad communications and the occasional car fire(or solar fire now), nothing has changed anything for me when it comes to my conviction of why I'm holding shares of Tesla...…….and that's just one opportunity Tesla has going for it

 

[brian45011]

Rule #1 in US lawsuit filing for negligence:

Sue everyone

This suit implies fault with the panels.

The panels are manufactured by TRINA SOLAR.

Plaintiff did not name component manufacturers while claiming fault with the panels and inverters.

What gives?
!

It is an action in contract, not negligence. The assertion of gross negligence is to support the Prayer for punitive damages.

 

[SGordB]

.


What are they going to say exactly? The most common answer to new legal issues is "No comment due to pending litigation". That's not going to help shareholders.

They could — for example, and assuming they truthfully can — make some reassuring statement in their defence along the lines of:

We’ve installed _______ [a gazillion] solar panels since ______, and Walmart’s issues are rare and exceptional. Fires have been reported at less than o.xxx% of Tesla Energy’s solar installations, a rate as low if not lower than the solar industry average. We regret that Walmart has opted to choose litigation as a means to resolve this issue despite our best efforts and are confident the court will side with us in this matter....

 

[Zaxxon]

Stuart Bowers is out.

 

[kengchang]

Stuart Bowers is out.

Was he the one who did 2nd half of the Autonomy day and Elon kicked him to the side because it was terrible?

 

[M3Rider]

You may interpret it that way, but that is not what he said.

This is what got people wound up. "version 10 [is] about 4 to 8 weeks away" qualified by "how early access goes." This implies that "early access" is before 4 to 8 weeks. As you say, there is a thread and one response to Musk's post was:

to which Musk replies:

which is something he already stated with respect to the release of advanced summon. Musk is simply reinforcing that purchasers of FSD are included in the early adopter release, that is, before wide release.
That takes us to the next owner post:

As did I. The current update is *.3.1, which does not include advanced summon. But the question is, when is the early adopter release happening (that is the current topic in the thread). And that brings us back to the current post by Musk that is upsetting some people where he clarifies that it has to pass the internal safety QA before they can move forward.


I've been careful to use quotes, but this can accurately be summarized as follows:

• FSD price increase is postponed until V10 (smart summon) is in wide release (4-8 weeks) depending on early access results
• What about FSD purchasers*
• Everyone who bought FSD qualifies for early release (reiterating prior statement)
• But I got an update and it didn't have advanced summon!
• Be patient, internal QA testing for safety will hopefully be done in about 4 weeks

Given that there can reasonably be expected to be a delay for regulatory approval, it is easy to see 4-8 weeks being the delay for even early adopter. Musk doesn't say QA will complete in four weeks, he says he hopes that it will.

But won't early adopter be a defacto wide release? Perhaps, but as already noted, that is easily within 4-8 weeks window. If FSD purchasers will have it, who else would be left for a "wide release"? Those who bought EAP but not FSD. I have no idea how many more people that would be.

* This post isn't really asking about FSD as early adopter for auto summon release, it is referring to a prior statement by Musk that those who bought FSD before the March sale would be added to early adopter as a general thing, not just for specific releases like this one. While it is possible some early buyers of FSD have been added to the early adopter program, on twitter the lack of early adopter has been a common complaint. But, that is tangential to the current discussion.

I believe that early adopter (software updates->advanced) is at the front of a wide release, i.e. might start getting updates @4weeks as per communications above and it might take couple of weeks(based on geography/other), after which the rest of the fleet gets it, which takes another couple of weeks and so, takes 8 weeks for the last in line.

But they really shouldn't expose this internal mechanics, with the original statement it kinda sounds like it might take 8 weeks for everybody.

The people who complain on Twitter about not getting their early updates should check their wifi connection and talk to service if delays are very significant. Happens for me and you, so def. not across the board issue.

Rollout goes to everyone, not just FSD and EAP,
I think you should be able to watch Netflix with AP.

 

[deffu]

At this point, I do not believe any new product/technology, weather it is Y, semi or robotaxis would become a game changer to save the company from poor financials. new products always come with new challenges. its OK/great to dream big. but I think what tesla currently needs is still to get production/marketing/sales/delivery/service streamlined. if people still think telsa doesnt have a management/execution problem, they are merely blind to facts. New products are not going to solve your OLD problems. rather, they are going to bring in more/bigger problem if the company stays on the current course unchanged.

I figure 10% of deliveries are leases, so with your 2020 numbers that's 27b of auto sales plus ~1b auto lease revenue.

27b sales + 1b lease + 1.5b Energy + 2.5b Services = 32b

I think Y will come early, but total 3+Y will be ~500k next year so this math still works. Services could be higher and I have S/X higher than you, so maybe 33b.

Not unless there's a secret factory under construction somewhere.

I think Musk is betting a lot more on Robotaxi than people realize. He believes robotaxi economics will transform Tesla from a struggling carmaker into a true tech giant. And wow-ing people with self-driving is a lot more fun than grinding away at the "Game of Pennies". During Autonomy Day he said 100% of their spending was directed at FSD. That's not literally true, but he meant what he said. Roadster, Semi and Pickup are no longer priorities.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Stuart Bowers is out.

Old news. Stuart was forced out over a month back: Tesla Autopilot team loses several more engineers as Elon Musk takes over - Electrek

 

[204EV]

Stuart Bowers is out.

Not really a surprise he was basically demoted back in early July good to get high pay off the books if they are no longer working in that capacity with the company.

 

[Zaxxon]

Old news. Stuart was forced out over a month back: Tesla Autopilot team loses several more engineers as Elon Musk takes over - Electrek

To be clear, he did not leave then. His responsibilities were reportedly changed. Now he's officially out.

 

[humbaba]

Rollout goes to everyone, not just FSD and EAP,
I think you should be able to watch Netflix with AP.

Absolutely correct. I got caught up in the furor about advanced summon (which is what I, personally, am chomping at the bit for) and forgot about that. Good catch!

 

[KSilver2000]

For those who are completely dismissing the Walmart issue as oil-backed FUD, here are some reasons why I wouldn't discredit the suit:
*not accurate representation of what Tesla Energy is now as some of the reviews were from pre-Tesla SolarCity, but many issues, particularly communications, still exist.

- Yelp https://www.yelp.com/biz/tesla-fremont-2?osq=Tesla+solar
- Solarreviews Tesla / SolarCity solar reviews, complaints, address & solar panels cost
- Consumer affairs Top 573 Reviews and Complaints about SolarCity

I can't imagine all these people are backed by big oil to spread FUD about Tesla solar.

By the way, in case anyone is looking into solar and wants some feedback, my decision for not using Tesla include:

• back when I was deciding, and even today, you do not know which panels you will get (although, many installs seem to be with Tesla's own nowadays). Tesla is still using a mix of Tesla, Hanwha Q, Kyocera, Yingli, Trina, in this specific order of utilization
• Tesla/Solarcity since SC acquired Zep are using rail-less mounts. These are much cheaper and proprietary, compared to rails from the likes of Iron Ridge. Combining these cheap rail-less mounts with inexperienced crews, is not something I wanted on top of my roof.
• Tesla installs skirts at the bottom of panels to make them visibly more appealing, but these will make it a pain to clean underneath the panels if you ever needed/wanted to since you can't access underneath from the bottom

 

[Joe F]

Purchased EAP and FSD almost 3 years ago (AP2) and without the AP3 H/W upgrade, which I believe Musk stated wouldn't be until year end, patience is wearing thin.

Having stated the older AP2 cars in their internal test fleet were successfully running the AP3 upgrade, this end of year target for early adopters getting the H/W upgrade is less than ideal.

 

[anthonyj]

Y’all are getting riled up with the Walmart roof nothingburger. How do you guys expect TSLA to rocket to Mars without burning down some roofs? Screw Walmart FUD! Barely any volume on today’s drop btw. I’m more concerned about Advanced/Enhanced/Smart Summon delays

 

[KSilver2000]

it is mindboggling to me that any Tesla investor would sell out of their position before the Battery Investor Day in early 2020. We all have hints about the direction they could go but considering their comments about a path to annual terawatt battery production, Tesla could come pretty close to monopolizing the EV market.

Not saying you or he is right.
But, did we not forget Autonomy Investor Day earlier this year? According to the majority on this forum, it was supposed to be the end all be all almost. We had hundreds of pages of how Tesla is going to be the only one standing making money from trees, SP going to the hundreds and thousands. Same level of optimism you just wrote with. And how did Autonomy Day pan out? Another dud.

BTW, between now and Battery day is a long time. Knowing that stocks move up and down daily, he may be able to make a quick buck by coming any time between tomorrow and Battery Day. Even a $1 turnaround at 1,000 shares is not just chump change.

 

[Curt Renz]

There is an extremely limited list of nations in the world that can resist a hypothetical US military attack for any significant amount of time. Denmark is not one of them.

Your remarks comes across as an adult joking about how easy it would be to generate an incident in order to enter a kindergarten and steal the children’s toys.

Yes it is easy for the strong to beat the weak. Is this funny? If yes, to whom?

My apologies. I didn't mean to pick on Denmark; it just happened to be in the news. I was being facetious. I was attempting to highlight the fact that so many wars are actually started by aggressors who try to make it appear that a defender has initiated an incident that must be punished. Often those incidents are either faked or intentionally provoked by the aggressor. Perhaps I should have ended that post with an emoticon.

Meanwhile, I am embarrassed by the way my nation's president has been offending your nation's prime minister with his remarks about Greenland and his cancellation of their scheduled meeting. I doubt that most Americans are in agreement with him in this matter. Sorry.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I think Musk is betting a lot more on Robotaxi than people realize. He believes robotaxi economics will transform Tesla from a struggling carmaker into a true tech giant. And wow-ing people with self-driving is a lot more fun than grinding away at the "Game of Pennies". During Autonomy Day he said 100% of their spending was directed at FSD. That's not literally true, but he meant what he said. Roadster, Semi and Pickup are no longer priorities.

Elon’s comment just meant that towards 100% of Tesla’s costs are for producing, selling and servicing its cars. As their business plan is for the majority of lifetime profit from each of these cars to come from Robotaxi revenue, then all of the auto costs incurred today are investments in this future Robotaxi business.
Making cars is just as important as ever, as are Pickup and Semi, which are also planned to be Robotaxi products.

Model 3 production next year should be over 500k, Y production will be on top of this. Model Y does not share the Model 3 production line and will not reduce Model 3 production capacity. There is no arbitrary absolute limit to Fremont capacity, Tesla are producing Model Y there because they can fit the new capacity there.

 

[AlMc]

Another interesting tidbit: Possible German factory location.... Alex on Twitter


Google Maps

 

[Beltsbear]

Rule #1 in US lawsuit filing for negligence:

Sue everyone

This suit implies fault with the panels.

The panels are manufactured by TRINA SOLAR.

Plaintiff did not name component manufacturers while claiming fault with the panels and inverters.

What gives?

That is shitty lawyer rule #1. Good lawyers don't sue people/companies unnecessarily. And in this case, Tesla has both the responsibility and the deep pockets. The problem here is almost certainly poor install quality and maybe shitty connectors. They could sue the connector company, but why bother? Tesla has ultimate responsibility and the money. Tesla could sue the connector company if they had a substantial part in this, but my feeling is they probably would go bankrupt (the connector company).

 

[willw64]

I just sold about 21% of our TSLA shares and might end up selling more. I really, really don't like what's happening with Walmart, and I still have concerns about vehicle service communication, so I figured it's probably safest to trim back our TSLA position. We really want Tesla to succeed, and we see great potential for Tesla to disrupt multiple industries while benefiting humankind. But customer relationships, large and small, need to be better cared for.

I can't blame you despite the potential upside. There is a certain amount of investor fatigue that goes with being a Tesla investor. As Mr. Barron said in his CNBC interview yesterday, the stock is more or less where it is because of a series of unforced errors, and the Wal Mart issue, without knowing what really happened, with rose colored lenses on, at best is another PR misstep.

At some point more and more investors are going to move on down the road to something with much less drama.

I'm still long and long two cars. I am trying to maintain a long, long term view, but do believe Elon needs to bring a C level right hand man/woman who he trusts who can pick up the ball on the day to day things and prevent the ever to common landmines.