Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Lots of M3 reviews in UK at the moment:
Tesla Model 3 vs BMW 3 Series: electric car vs diesel showdown
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus 2019 UK review | Autocar
All pretty good.

Haha, the comparison table for servicing is epic:

Cost of servicing
Tesla:
N/A
BMW:
£25 per month (3yrs)

 

[mongo]

You got me wrong.
I came from the Twitter link and am not talking about (regular) maintenance and scheduled service on the cars, but lengthy damage repairs. Things like replacing fenders, bumpers, suspension parts, broken lights and windows. Police cars typically don’t live the life of garage queens. Tesla still needs to improve parts availability, workshop capacity and the logistics involved.

As we learned from the latest German example, Tesla is not inclined to treat their fleet owners differently from their other customers. That’s why I think it will be an interesting (show) case for all parties involved.

The 3 is more repairable than the S/X due to more steel and bolt on front section.
Service centers are now stocking parts, so the one near there would likely carry more of the needed things.
Bumpers and such are items that Tesla service centers can handle same day. Lights and glass are also able to be done same day, if tech time is available.
Mobile service can handle a lot of those items without officers taking time to drop off/ pick up car.
Parts availability and logistics is better in the US than overseas.

 

[winfield100]

I actually did some back of a napkin math with this. 72 GWh equals about 45 million liters of fuel assuming 5 miles/kWh and 30MPG. Thats about 18 olympic swimming pools. That sounds impressive but then I converted it to gas station equilevants. An average gas stations sells about 3 million liters of fuel a year (at least in Europe). So the entire Supercharger network equals about 180 gas stations in miles/kilometers enabled. A lot less than I would have though. Obviously ICE cars can't be charged at home though but still. There are bout 150k gas stations in the US alone.

0
If you want really rough numbers that make more assumptions
From 9.5 months ago.
“But a source familiar with the data point confirmed to Electrek that the fleet surpassed 9 billion total miles in September and at the time, Tesla drivers averaged almost 20 million miles per day – close to 4 times the average from just 2 years ago.”
So, 20,000,000 miles per day 9.5 months ago.
Make a rough guess and say 25,000,000 miles per day(or higher)(lets say 28 for ease of division)
Rough guess 7,000,000 kWh/day figuring between 3.5 - 4 miles per kWh
Roughly 7-9 gigawatt hours / day or roughly 230 - 270 gigawatt hours in a 30 day month.
(Where’s that 3 dot thingy for “therefore”)
Therefore:
2/3 to 3/4 (or more) charging is _not_ done at super chargers

(curious if anybody does 8 or 12 amp at 110v)
(knew an S60 that used an extension cord out window at 110v years ago at Rehoboth beach Delaware, USA as he parked it for 2-3 days since beach town)

SO you should multiply by at least 4 the number of Olympic swimming pools full of fuel not used., and ~720 gas stations like where I get peanut M&M’s (nom nom nom)

 

[RobStark]

The 3 is more repairable than the S/X due to more steel and bolt on front section.
Service centers are now stocking parts, so the one near there would likely carry more of the needed things.
Bumpers and such are items that Tesla service centers can handle same day. Lights and glass are also able to be done same day, if tech time is available.
Mobile service can handle a lot of those items without officers taking time to drop off/ pick up car.
Parts availability and logistics is better in the US than overseas.

Tesla should really sell fenders/bumper assemblies/wheels/suspension parts to Police Department repair facilities.

This is a regular thing and they need quick turnaround time.

When it comes to powertrain stuff and structural repairs needing specialty equipment then that should head over to Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nah. I suspect that the target is now 7k (+3k in GF3).

But 7k/wk is still 91k/quarter.

Yes, 7K Model 3s in Fremont with the potential of up to 8K by year end. Additional production capacity will be added at Fremont in 2020 with Model Y.

I suspect Tesla is working on a flexible line for Model Y so that the 3/Y mix can be fine-tuned for demand. Initial production totals for 3/Y should top 10K/wk at Fremont.

GF3 targeting 1.5K/wk by end of 2019Q4 or early 2020Q1, increasing to 3K/wk during 2020. Unannounced timeline, but GF3's 1st Model 3 line sized for at least 5K/wk (250K/yr)

Further expect a 2nd line for Model Y production there once the initial backlog of Model 3 demand is satisfied, likely by 2021 (after debugging in Fremont).

Next up, straight to producing both 3/Y at GF4/EU by 2022? Euro buildout time at issue.

Nevertheless, this is going get big, fast. Tesla is on track for a CAGR of 42% over the next 4 years. That's two doublings of producion, and close to 1.5M cars/yr run rate by the beginning of 2024.

Cheers!

 

[Reinhard]

Nah. I suspect that the target is now 7k (+3k in GF3).

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1e70a30c-20a7-48b3-a1f6-696a7c517959

Q2 update letter states: "All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of all models per week by the end of 2019."

Model X/S are at about 1200/week. So they are aiming for a model 3 rate of around 8800/week.

 

[SPadival]

There is some discord in the ranks of the shorts on twitter and hilarity ensues

Andreas Hopf on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1e70a30c-20a7-48b3-a1f6-696a7c517959

Q2 update letter states: "All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of all models per week by the end of 2019."

Model X/S are at about 1200/week. So they are aiming for a model 3 rate of around 8800/week.

I strongly expect to see X/S production increases at some point later this year. They can't keep running a deficit and burning through inventory forever - and S/X sales keep rising.

Regardless, though... everyone should be able to agree that Tesla continues to target Model 3 production increases at Fremont. And thus even 78k Model 3s this quarter would be a disappointment, as that would merely mean holding steady at the end-of-Q2 rate.

 

[KarenRei]

There is some discord in the ranks of the shorts on twitter and hilarity ensues

Andreas Hopf on Twitter

View attachment 448914
View attachment 448915

Lol, I love the fact that TeslaCharts is still in denial about US sales numbers

 

[RobStark]

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1e70a30c-20a7-48b3-a1f6-696a7c517959

Q2 update letter states: "All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of all models per week by the end of 2019."

Model X/S are at about 1200/week. So they are aiming for a model 3 rate of around 8800/week.

But they have guided for 80k/year run rate for S/X or 1600 per week.

Elon kinda through his hands in the air and said maybe demand is not there but that is there capacity with the current line using 1 shift.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The 3 is more repairable than the S/X due to more steel and bolt on front section.
Service centers are now stocking parts, so the one near there would likely carry more of the needed things.
Bumpers and such are items that Tesla service centers can handle same day. Lights and glass are also able to be done same day, if tech time is available.
Mobile service can handle a lot of those items without officers taking time to drop off/ pick up car.
Parts availability and logistics is better in the US than overseas.

I ike your optimism.

 

[Fred42]

Important Tesla news (if you work for PETA or love cows): Tesla on Twitter. The Model 3 interior is now 100% leather free. Including the steering wheel.

But it will have some Quarter Pounder with Cheese grease on it.

 

[madodel]

I ike your optimism.

But do you like Ike?

 

[KarenRei]

But do you like Ike?

 

[RobStark]

IRS may use that post as evidence that you really are an American.

 

[kbM3]

Nice video on Tesla and China.

 

[kbM3]

If you don’t understand how deeply in trouble the domestic automakers are, after watching this video, you for sure will

 

[Beltsbear]

If you don’t understand how deeply in trouble the domestic automakers are, after watching this video, you for sure will

When Tesla can make 1 million vehicles per year for the us market we will see how many electrics the domestics can make. If they have no plans for anything better then the bolt, they are ****ed.

 

[StealthP3D]

Police cars typically don’t live the life of garage queens.

The only garage I have is a dedicated motorcycle shop. Cars are not allowed (even if they could fit). Our two Model 3's live a hard life and are no worse for the wear. They are not the fragile garage queens the detractors try to portray them as. I've off-roaded my P3D and drive it on a really rough, slushy, heavily salted ski area highway all winter long. This is where it charged most of last winter:

I drive them hard too. Pretty sure a police cruiser has an easier life in a warm garage every night. As a pair, our two Model 3's require less attention than any other single car we've owned and I'm pretty sure the Bargersville police aren't in the habit of doing a lot of Pitt maneuvers. So you are barking up the wrong tree. The whole purpose of replacing the gas patrol cars was to save money and I think they will do that handily.

 

[printf42]

The only garage I have is a dedicated motorcycle shop. Cars are not allowed (even if they could fit). Our two Model 3's live a hard life and are no worse for the wear. They are not the fragile garage queens the detractors try to portray them as. I've off-roaded my P3D and drive it on a really rough, slushy, heavily salted ski area highway all winter long. This is where it charged most of last winter:

View attachment 448973 View attachment 448974
I drive them hard too. Pretty sure a police cruiser has an easier life in a warm garage every night. As a pair, our two Model 3's require less attention than any other single car we've owned and I'm pretty sure the Bargersville police aren't in the habit of doing a lot of Pitt maneuvers. So you are barking up the wrong tree. The whole purpose of replacing the gas patrol cars was to save money and I think they will do that handily.

Is it a secret model Y under there?